Jump to content

Thinksnow18

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,144

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Thinksnow18
    Lol you are the great Kreskin!!!
  2. Thinksnow18
    Winter storm warning 5 to 10"...huh.
  3. Thinksnow18
    13" KBUF; 16.5 KROC; 19.5 KSYR
  4. Thinksnow18
    Erie is at 35 not sure about the western end.
  5. Thinksnow18
    Nice!!! That's really great news and further solidifies a more northern shift
  6. Thinksnow18
    I'm not worried about the NAM. At this point everything looks to be locking in...the numbers discussed in the AFD look great and I'm getting psyched for hefty accums.
  7. Thinksnow18
    I'd say anywhere north of the 90 has the better chances.
  8. Thinksnow18
    I like the 90% chance of higher accums than the minimum...me thinks the watch will be upgraded to a warning after tonights little disturbance is finished...probably tomorrow AM AFD
  9. Thinksnow18
    Looks great!!! I'll take a foot and run!!!
  10. Thinksnow18
    And that's what 8 miles north does as I was closer to 9" because of enhancement. I remember driving to Lackawanna at work and I wondered where all the snow was...
  11. Thinksnow18
    That'll change with this one!!! I think the globals are not doing a good enough job with mesoscale...there will be more moisture entrenched into the system due to the moisture from the lake.
  12. Thinksnow18
    I noticed just now that the WSW has been re-worded to the possibility of 9" plus from the prior 7" plus. Small change but looks to be thinking higher accums more likely.
  13. Thinksnow18
    Icon still has over an 1" liquid equivalent for KBUF and 1.5" for KROC and KSYR...still looks like good snow totals will be realized all upstate.
  14. Thinksnow18
    Could we be seeing a northward shift now that the storm is in the continental US???
  15. Thinksnow18
    What's your accumulation forecast???
  16. Thinksnow18
    Makes sense. More grainy due to poor dendrite formation. Im guessing an optimal thermal would be 2m temps in the teens to low 20's???
  17. Thinksnow18
    Does that seem kinda low? I mean by 18z and especially 0z the temps will be in the single digits.
  18. Thinksnow18
    In fairness that is the GFS output...mike also showed the Euro output and it's 11" at KBUF.
  19. Thinksnow18
    Got it. I was confused with what looked to be redevelopment. TY!
  20. Thinksnow18
    Lol trying to upload the ECMWF for the 27th...shows an absolute monster blovk and PV right over the upper great lakes...BW has been saying for days to watch that timeframe and truth be told I'm starting to salivate a bit...
  21. Thinksnow18
    I think we will know more as the storm jumps the Rockies later tonight early tomorrow. The confluence isn't our friend ATM but it also is keeping the storm from just blowing out to sea...is this almost becoming a Miller B type storm? Initial low to a transfer along the coast?
  22. Thinksnow18
    10 to 1...if 15 or 20 to one those numbers go up by 1 1/2 or 2. So KBUF goes from 9" to 13.5 or 18 and KSYR goes to 12" to 18 or 24".
  23. Thinksnow18
    Agreed. The lake enhancement will carry quite far from the lakes inland.
  24. Thinksnow18
    I wonder what the me so models are showing. I believe a lot of these models don't pick up on lake enhancement well at all.
  25. Thinksnow18
    Looking at the AFD this morning they mention the southerly track and are not concerned with it as plenty of energy will be found over WNY with an inverted trough crossing the area during Saturday night. Couple in the moisture from Lake Ontario and I believe we will all be quite satisfied come Sunday afternoon.
×
×
  • Create New...