Thinksnow18

Picked up nearly 2" in Williamsville in about 1 hour.

Ripping in Clarence center. 1 to 2 inch hour rates.

Light to occasionally moderate snow in williamsville, small flakes almost grainy...ground is whitening.

Same with the Niagara Frontier.

You know I did alright in the November hybrid...hopefully we all cash in...but I agree I'm going through snow withdrawal!!!

WWA for Northern Erie, Niagara, Genesee Counties until 1pm tomorrow...4 to 8 in the most persistent bands over northeastern Erie and Genesee Counties...can we get that to move about 12 miles west???

Slow down boys...the upstream looks great, plenty of moisture to work with for the next 36 hours and no shear. Also every channel I watched stated nothing was really going to get going until later today so let's let it play out. Ok done being the voice of reason, my next post will be fire and brimstone!!!

Upstream radars are all blossoming with lake effect and enhanced snows...should fill in nicely around here this afternoon.

That's my analog for the Niagara Frontier as we picked up 8" at KBUF

You know I kinda chuckled to myself when Todd Santos said 3-6 for buffalo by Thursday night but im starting to think he's on to something. Again reminds me of the 8" in November same set up....and where I work in Lackawanna it was a dusting to an inch.

First time I can say there is a clear tank in the AO at the end of the run.

And February, March...

This is the most exciting weather the N.F. is going to see in the next 14 days.

Ok so back to the car discussion, as I'm pretty certain us folk at the lower elevations on the Niagara Frontier are going to waiting quite some time for any appreciable snows!!! So we have a 2014 dodge grand caravan which I love and hate all at once...Great for traveling and carrying just about anything (the seats stow n go and I can put 10 sheets of drywall or several pieces of furniture as we like to revive old furniture). Hate it because, well, it's a mini-van. The second rig is a 2017 cruze as our economical car. Now to the weather. I am growing pretty despondent here as the latest run of the GFS shows next to zero snow chances for WNY outside of the next couple days for 2 weeks. In fact I also saw on another forum last night the ECMWF 45 snowfall accums and let's just say areas of WNY didn't get above a foot during that time frame. I, like Matt and others, enjoy the summers but love the winters. If this is going to be a fail of a winter snowfall wise that will make for a long year meteorologically speaking.

Oddly I thought that forecast of warmer temps next week was off a bit. The SSWE is starting to spawn The 3rd vorticie and it is forecast to be off the north atlantic/Canadian maritime then retrograde west to Hudson Bay all the while forcing the jet to buckle under a +PNA next week.

I don't know, reminds me of the earlier lake enhanced event in November that gave KBUF it's largest accums this season at 8".

The discussion that follows explains how all long range models are coming into better agreement at most of the conus east of the Rockies having BN temps during weeks 3 and 4 and beyond. Multiple chances for snow after tomorrow including what looks to be a decent chance next weekend.

If the 3rd sister lobe settles over southern Hudson Bay as forecast it could be 1985, 2000 and 2014 all over again for the buffalo metro.

This was my fear all along. The "sister PV" would be more easterly and not over Hudson Bay pushing the storm track well south and east of the CWA leaving us just as we are now except we would have frozen mud.

Well there's this I suppose...

True it has been sad, but im starting to get the feeling that next week's storm will be the force that changes our pattern. Whether we get more snow or rain from it there's mounting evidence it turns appreciably colder the following weekend.

I've tried to show the ECMWF that Judah Cohen tweeted out that shows a long lasting Greenland block starting next week. In fact he shows quite a few things that should get us all excited.

You forgot to post what comes after the 8-14 day period...

Trying to upload a pic of the Euro for next weekend, Canadian and the Para GFS are on board but the GFS is warm. So most of what we see is the GFS on TT and we are freaking out, but if you notice the last run of the 18z there are quite a few changes for snow in the 7 day period on out.