OSU im nowhere near your level of expertise, but given where I live in Williamsville close to Clarence, I can say with good confidence that lake enhancement off Ontario makes it to me quite frequently but models NEVER pick up on it. They stop right at the Niagara/Erie border like there's a magic wall there. The storm in November was a perfect example of this as we bested the amount we were forecast by 3 or 4 inches due to the enhancement. I think N. Erie is going to overachieve again.