North and West

Regarding climate change, I’ve always thought of it as analogous as steroids in baseball; you’ve always had home runs and other outside variable factors (a wind gust coming through unexpectedly, a humid night, a scuff on the ball) impacting the flight of the ball, and steroids may take that warning track fly and push it over the wall, or the infield fly and make it a bloop, or a roided-up pitcher with too much velocity on a fastball and straightening it out, making it easier to hit the other way. .

This is a good point of why averages exist. Everything regresses to a mean. History rhymes but doesn’t repeat itself. .

It feels like the focus on increasing expertise should be on the 6-10 day window, since so many changes still occur, especially with wintertime forecasting. There always seem to be so many dynamic moving parts; much like a protractor, one angle degree off at Point A leads to wide differentials the further out you get. With 11+ day forecasts, it’s just way too variable. It doesn’t *seem* any different to the amateur eye versus what I remember from 30+ years ago. It’s not the same as much with established tropical systems such as Cape Verde hurricanes, since they take such a long, slow time to develop once they start.

By the way, I want to make sure to compliment you on this writeup. This was very easy for the feeble-minded such as myself to understand, while still being thorough. Whether or not it tells me a forecast I do or don’t prefer, how we get there was still laid out logically. Thank you! .

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What’s OT? .

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Imagine the money to be made this time of year on model runs… Ensembles by DraftKings[emoji769] .

[emoji445] mama said we can’t talk about sun angle until after Christmas [emoji445] .

waiting to sing the [emoji443] sun angle song [emoji445] .

Who do you think you are coming here and laying out facts and logical interpretations of situations of which we have no control over? .

This group needs a Sarah McLachlan commercial after a bad model trend. .

Just from my years of watching, didn’t the high pressure move from Boise (which is a usual rule of thumb of where you want it for a storm here) to off the west coast generally mean it wants to make it cut? Is that me or just my hallucinogenic qaaludes talking? .

In the city that never sleets .

They said there'll be snow at Christmas They said there'll be peace on Earth But instead it just kept on raining .

You and your logic. .

There are worse hobbies. .

Does she also follow the weather or just think you’re nuts? (And by nuts, I mean my wife every now and then asks me what do the weenies think) .

This is why you don’t hype these things on social media nine days in advance. Even the, ahem, *peons* know this. .

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Can you interpret for the pions among us? tyvm .

A tradition like no other… cancelling winter. .

Let’s be happy for our friends who haven’t gotten a big storm recently who live up north in this forum. I hope it materializes and that you guys enjoy it! .