Waiting on snow

Why am I not surprised? We lose the GFS and gain the Euro. They are like an old married couple and can't agree on anything! But seriously though I'll take the Euro at this range. As I stated yesterday it's time for the Euro op to hit if this threat is for real!

Good!! Means I may have 60 and rain. Beats 33 and rain anytime!

Yep right in line with the Euro and FV3. Good thing the op runs are useless and we still have the ensembles! At least for a couple more hours!

Oh you'll torch until January and like it! Still undecided about your ice storm though!!

Tomorrow we close inside of 7 days. 5-7 days out I'd bank on the Euro and FV3. I know the ensembles are the way to go at this range. And they're not bad. But within 48 hrs we better see some of these op Euro and FV3 runs trend in our favor or I feel the ensembles will trend bad as well. It's good to track this early but I think we all have a feeling how this ends.

Hideous run on the FV3 also. Low goes from north MS to off the ne coast.

Yes ensembles are the way to go. Not deterministic models. The CAD is highly dependent on the high to the north. And without blocking that high has to be positioned perfectly and 8 days out is way too far to know that in my opinion.

Isn't the new FV3 taking over in January?

I'd lean toward the Euro and FV3 at this point more. Not because it has a better storm, but because it has been scoring better than the GFS, correct? But this far out it really is hard to buy into any of them.

Almost that time as we turn the corner to December. It's no longer too early to snow. Now we begin with the "models are underestimating the wedge, it'll make it's own cold air, still plenty of time to trend back south, wait until the storm is on the west coast for a sample, the Euro is useless time to watch short range models, and I'm sure many others. Lmao should be a fun ride.

I hope to be able to do a lot of cliff diving this winter!!! Wouldn't be fun to have wall to wall cold and snow. I like adversity!!

Exactly! I'm actually a very optimistic person over things I can control. But winter weather in the south is not something you'll ever see me optimistic about. I've lived in SC my whole life and seen every thing that can go wrong go wrong. It's climatology. Every dream pattern in the long range usually flips and there is always a fly in the ointment. I'm sure GSP to RDU will get a winterstorm. We usually do. El Nino Decembers are usually milder. I get that. But anyone seeing where this El Nino is heading has to be concerned. Going from a weak Modoki to a moderate/strong basin wide is a game changer. The Pacific pattern is very hard to flip once it gets established.

Yes and that was a terrible, snowless winter up and down the east coast. One freak 1000 year snowstorm hitting the SC lowcountry doesn't mean anything in the big picture.

Is anyone really surprised? Wouldn't be a se winter if we didn't start meteorological winter with crap staring at crap in the long range. The cold forecasts are starting to unravel quick. Basin wide moderate El Nino is not good for the Pacific pattern and models are now adjusting to that.We'll be flooded with mild Pacific air regardless of the Atlantic side. After all this is the south and there are too many ways to have a mild pattern over a cold one.

I agree. But if there is any way possible for the se to be warm we will find it.

I don't think so. Looks like a ++EPO which is bad.

I don't know about the EPS, but the weeklies are awful the second week of December. Has a gulf of Alaska low. My limited knowledge tells me though once that feature is established its stubborn as the SER. I hope it doesn't pan out.

Since we are rapidly approaching meteorological winter I figured it's time to kick this thread up again. The edge of the cliff will fill up fast soon!

Either way as long as it's not 70+ I'm happy right now. Chances are even with a great pattern we'd be on the outside looking in this early. Rather save it for later. With the NAO heading slightly negative toward neutral and PNA falling to near neutral long range it fits with a more average, boring zonal flow. The AO looks to remain negative throughout.

You would be incorrect sir! Jan and Feb chances go up to 0.0013%!

Climatology says that's probably correct. Regardless of the indices it just usually does not snow outside the mtns this early.

Yeah CAE no doubt is horrible. I lived there 5 winters. 13-14 was my first and it gave me false hope. Every other year was a dumpster fire and looking back at records it's always been that way.

Most definitely. It's always a fine line between suppression and too warm around these parts. Definitely higher than average chances of something panning out in the advertised pattern, but no guarantee.

Hard to say. I remember 09-10 was frustrating for me at least. Early on everything kept missing just north. Then when the real cold came it shut down the gulf for 2 weeks or so. That winter didn't produce until the end of January into February for areas south of 85 if my memory is correct.

Seriously?