RevWarReenactor

The amount of people losing it over a 200 + hour gfs run is unreal. It can’t even nail down specifics a day in advance anymore.

Already down to 31 here. It probably doesn’t matter. Once the clouds come in it will likely recover. Still already 3 degrees colder than they said it would be

The models are absolutely horrible with tomorrow’s event it’s just been atrocious

Normally I wouldn’t care what it has to say but it nailed precip types on the Dec 26th storm.

Yeah im not sure where the disconnect is. This is a panel off the 12z GFS. Its snows, lightly, for nearly 8 hours tomorrow. This looks like far more than an inch. Its not a major storm. But that is screaming 2-4 inches for eastern areas.

Mt Holly is not at all impressed with tomorrow. Not sure why. Are temps the issue?

Yeah they will be playing catchup today if the trends continue or if it even holds here.

We really need two threads now. The nowcasting of this mouse fart is drowning out what looks to be a decent snowstorm tomorrow.

Its been a long time since something has trended in our favor right before the event. Maybe its not done?

Oh that is quite a step back. Next run it will be in line with the euro. Garbage model

It did? Looks about the same as 6z to me. Maybe a slight tick east. Still okay here if I’m setting expectations at 1-2 inches. But yeah- it’s not a reliable model anymore.

I don't even know much about the science behind it all, and I am a pessimist, but even for me its obvious the potential is there this year. This year has actually been "good". No shutouts, no endless SE ridge and torch. Its obvious the upcoming couple weeks are our best opportunity in years and if we actually walk away from it with nothing, like PSU said, time for a new hobby.

Is there anything to push that boundary south next weekend? Otherwise it looks to be setting up heartbreak. After a cold week, Great snows just to our north on the 6z GFS. That wouldn't be fun.

Until Early February, then Valentines is the period to watch, then its actually late February. Then its early March, remember, it can snow in March! Then people keep tracking potential but they are really just tracking spring. Meanwhile we got like 2 inches on the grass during that time. Happens every year. Last time things were actually good was 2014-2015 season; outside of the blizzard of 2016.

Its kind of interesting how the GFS did the same exact thing with the Thursday storm. Bringing it back on day 4 only to quickly take it away. Also happened to a lesser extent with the Dec 26th storm. Plus no ensemble support. Is something wrong with this model?