StormChazer

Yeah, definitely not trying to take away the validity of the SW MO and NE AR members! You are all in the same boat as us!

Jan 11-12 It's a touch misleading since the Springfield area itself didn't experience much, but some of the northern counties of the forecast area saw 8-12 inches of snow, and then an ice issue to the SE.

Friendly reminder that the only forecast areas in the nation that have issued a winter storm warning longer ago than the Tulsa office is San Francisco,CA(understandable being the Pacific Coast), Lake Charles, LA(Also understandable as it's the gulf coast), and Lubbock, TX(although arguable they should have issued one last year when Lubbock received 12 inches of snowfall in a day). So when I saw law of averages means we are due, WE ARE DUE.

Hi everyone! Late to the party this year, got some flurries on Halloween Ever here in Tulsa, pretty crazy! I'm interested in Nov 11th, both the GFS and Euro have something small brewing for OK/AR/MO, looks like a 1-2 incher, but in early Nov, I'll take that! So far, a good way to kick off this winter. This just HAS to be the year! Law of averages.

Day 8 risk on the SPC. Don’t see that too often.

DISCUSSION... Shallow cold air remains firmly entrenched over the area, with low cloudiness remaining trapped below the inversion. While there may be a few breaks later this afternoon, for the most part the clouds will remain. As such, have lowered afternoon high temperatures several degrees.

34 in Tulsa right now, TSA was calling for 42 today, now lowered to 40. Only about 4 more hours left to heat up, and I'm not sure I see that happening.

12Z Euro bringing those higher totals a touch more south. I can get behind that.

All I'm asking for is 3 inches of snow here in Tulsa. I'll even take 2-2.5. This is the last shot of the winter and even though it will have been another under-performing season, going out on a high note like this would scratch that 4 year itch that has built up. Not to mention whatever falls we get to enjoy all day Sunday, Monday, and some of Tuesday.

Meteorologist Michael Armstrong out of OKC's thoughts on the upcoming storm. "Many areas have now gone 2 to 3 days below freezing. This will likely have some significant impacts on the upcoming winter storm for this weekend. In other words, greater impacts than earlier winter when warm days led into those."

TSA's thoughts. They do mention "heavy snow", just need those totals to shift about 40 miles south and I'll be ecstatic.

GFS and NAM have two VERY different opinions. That being said, the 12Z NAM is coming in a little colder, let's see how this run finishes up.

Local TV met’s thoughts here in Tulsa. I can say with some certainty that he’s pretty “over” winter at this point and is pretty pessimistic(with good reason) on snow lately. So take that for what it’s worth. “Just a quick note: The snow potential on Sunday is very similar to what we have seen through most of the winter. Flurries and snow showers. Sometimes, in a very cold airmass like this you can get some higher snowfall rates. What I have noticed is that with this type of setup our data goes a little overboard this far out. Right now, I do believe it will be rather light and a minor event. Only caveat is that the air is so cold, even the lightest of snow will stick.”

Different ratio algorithm than the basic 10:1

If we embrace the 10:1 ratio, that's 4 inches of snow potential in Tulsa on top of the ~2 inches the euro drops. If we can just get half of that freezing rain to verify as snow, then we've got an easy 4 inches on this model. But, half an inch of ice would equally be pretty awful for roads and powerlines/trees.

I don’t need a foot of snow. I want a foot, but I don’t need it. What I do need is a solid 3 inches, 4 if I can be so bold to ask.

This is Fri nighy/Sat morning timeframe, the more the cold air pushes in, the slower it will retreat which means a quicker onset of frozen precip Sat Night. OLD NEW Closer up.

Euro is coming in colder.

I've definitely been seeing this as our last shot this winter. The models have trended cooler and more qpf...so here's to hoping.

All Tulsa roads are now slick like OKC was earlier today.

Surprisingly quiet for the ice event that is beginning to unfold. OKC has got it bad right now. Tulsa will be next at this rate(29 and drizzling). I work in South Tulsa and the foliage, metal bars, etc outside are covered in that layer of ice now.

It's 30 here in Tulsa, 27-29 just north of Tulsa, and it's a wet mess out there right now with everything dripping from that misty drizzle. It's not getting any warmer today, I think in a couple hours we start seeing some real problems here.

Tulsa is below freezing now, 31 degrees, gonna have to watch that commute home I think, more than anything.

As of today, the only places in the entire country that have gone longer than us without a winter storm warning are as follows..... San Francisco, Lubbock,(Which surprises me as they got a foot of snow this season in 1 sitting...) and Lake Charles. I'm excluding Southern Florida and Puerto Rico as those places have never had a winter storm warning issued. Truly proof we are just in some very statistically unfortunate time period for us snow lovers.

So from what I'm seeing, looks to be an active 7-10 days. Freezing Rain/Sleet chance Wed PM-Thurs, some light post frontal snow over the weekend, and then a possible winter storm shaping up for early next week.