StormChazer

If only...Hahah. GFS was kinda right last time though XD, I'll believe it if it's within 20 hours....

I will say this much, the HRRR is showing a trend after each run of inching the precip shied north. They also said up to 1-2 inches of sleet or snow. 1 inch of sleet would wreck the roads.

I'm not going to lie, this confuses me.....there's not a single model projecting snow or even much of any precipitation for that matter...

So....do we owe the GFS an apology?

NAM3K and HRRR are the only things at this point giving me any lasting hope.

NAM is running, let's see the prognosis.

You would think, but this one felt like such a slam dunk to get a least 3 inches. To have it disappear before our very eyes just 48 hours out is the worst. I'm not writing it off yet, the sampled data could turn things around for us, but it's definitely not looking great right now.

So the way I see it, is the storm will be sampled this evening, so perhaps the 00Z runs will contain sampled information, if not, the 6Z and 12Z tomorrow will. If those don't change the trend that's going on, then I'm sticking a fork in this and developing some trust issues for the next few weeks. Good news out of all of this, is this is early in the season to be getting chances for awesome snowstorms(even if they don't pan out), so we still have 3 more months of this to go.

The storm system won’t be over land until this evening is my understanding.

My powers of deduction and line drawing would like to think that 4-6 inch band continues up into the Tulsa metro...

I've spoken to two local TV mets today and both seem pretty un-wavered by the runs last night/this morning. Seem to still think Tulsa gets in on somewhere between 3-6 inches, they expect models will jog back north a little bit, so I guess we'll wait and see if they're right.

This is such a tricky forecast(as is almost all winter events here in Oklahoma). I actually think Tulsa is still in a good spot for a solid 5 inches, partially because I'm an eternal optimist but this snow line is still going to move around some the next 24-36 hours. My personal opinion is that last night/this morning is the southern jog, and then soon it'll lift back north ever so slightly, which I think puts OKC and Tulsa right in the prime spot for a good snow. Again, there's alot of factors that will go into this, and if all the models keep pushing south, we're going to find ourselves with only an inch or so, but based on what the NAM usually does, which is pinball up and down until in settles in the middle, I think we are still in a good position for now.

I still have hope in Tulsa, but man, if I live in West OK I'm pretty upset right now.

Thanks for the write up. Is there a model that excels at determining shortwave strength? Because the NAM just kept on NAMing, but I’m not sure who the favored model is in this scenario. I also read the Storm is lagging behind out at sea some, how might that affect us? Wouldn’t the colder air be more firmly in place if the storm is dejayed until Sat evening?

I feel like for them to put this graphic out after last nights runs means they aren’t confident in that set of runs, but idk.

Soooo, we gonna talk about that euro run? Because that just threw a wrench into everything. But, need to see the ensembles, may just be a goofy run.

Tossed out in terms of how poorly it was handling the cold air. As it catches up to the Euro and NAM it gets more viable.

As far out as the 3K goes so far.

This GFS run should be all TSA needs to issue the winter storm watch. I'm betting one within the next couple hours.

Pretty surprised Tulsa hasn't issued the watch yet....and this evening's NAM run is going to be a very important one as it'll have more information to go off of.

Where did you find this???

This what you're trying to upload?

If you watch the last few frames, the snow shield kinda starts to...stay still?

And for the record, the system is still ongoing......

The NAM has lost it's mind.....