StormChazer

I'm starting to think we may get some ice storm warnings issued to the NW of Tulsa Metro area. Down in DFW they extended their flood watch to the west because their expecting that heavier precip to shift some to the west, if that plays out, that area of precip will make its way up to NE Oklahoma after the freezing temps are in place. Just my two cents.

Just rain here in Tulsa still, but the temp is steadily dropping, an interesting forecast to be sure. Keep those updates coming!

Wow, this is a sharp a front as you'll see. 30 degree difference here in Tulsa and Skiatook....that's a short drive. Things are going to get interesting.

The Nam just out down a foot of sleet here in the Tulsa area. Obviously that would never happen, but even a fourth of that would turn the roads into an ice skating rink.

This is what Tulsa NWS had to say about that today. Granted, it doesn't show as much ice here as it does in KS and MO, it still shows a few hours of moderate sleet/Frz Rain. "A cold front will move across the area late Monday night and Tuesday, with showers and thunderstorms becoming more numerous near and behind the front. Some models indicate the potential for temperatures to fall low enough for some freezing rain or sleet on the back side of the precipitation shield late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Confidence is low in this however, so will not mention wintry precipitation at this time."

NWS in Tulsa has a great take for the next 10 or so days on the changing pattern. The ongoing pattern change will feature more troughing over the western U.S. and this looks to persist through at least early next week. This is a departure from what has been observed for much of the winter season and is likely to a more active flow regime. An initial influence of this unsettled pattern is the forecast Friday night into Saturday with latest data showing a more substantial post frontal precip band developing and passing mainly across southern portions of the forecast area. Current forecast will keep temps warm enough for all liquid but this time frame will need to be followed. Precip chances continue into early next week with moderating temps ahead of the next cold front possibly arriving toward the end of this forecast period. The pattern of troughing to our west and a reinforcing push of colder air early next week will be a focus for upcoming forecasts. Hopefully a sign that our winter precip drought has a better chance of coming to an end!

Nice pics, we had the ever so slightest glaze here in the Tulsa area over the weekend. Some slick spots on Saturday night was the worst it got. So since every model shows a great storm until about 5 days out and then squashes it, do we have a different change in pattern coming up that might let me be a little more hopeful? Because I see a few ice storms on the horizon on the models but figure there's no point to even hope that we may see something if the overall upper pattern is the same.

06Z on February 11th(the run that preceded the massive ice storm run in OK/TX. And here is today's 12Z run, which looks almost identical. I don't expect to see another run like Sunday's 12Z run, but it has slowly trended closer to it the past few runs.

I will say, the GFS has slowly been trending back north after its initial jump away from that ice storm in Oklahoma and Texas.

Well, I won't lie. This potential storm next weekend certainly has the look of the kind of storm that gives Oklahoma snow, unlike all the other storms with winter that gain steam just east of here. It's just refreshing to see a different setup for once.

Just poking in here to drool over the 12Z GFS. Now back to our scheduled disappointment XD

I give up. See you guys in the spring barring some sort of miracle this pattern stops.

This run of the GFS looks pretty much identical to this afternoon's run on the Canadian. After the front passes through, a large area of light snow looks to move in Sun night/Mon morning.

I hear you. There was that one storm that brought a good snow to Southeast Kansas, Northeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Missouri. So every once in a while this season it has panned out. So fingers crossed.

And just like that the GFS and Canadian go playing with my heart. GFS shows Northeast OK getting a couple inches on Sunday, Candian on Monday. Wonder how the Euro will feel about it. Won't surprise me if the Euro stands its ground like it has with this upcoming system(and been right about so far), and then the other come in line with in the next couple days. That being said, for a system 6-7 days out, I'm surprised to see the two move back into a wetter solution for OK, that hasn't been the pattern this winter. It's just 1 run though. I'm curious what the Euro will say, and then see if there's consistency.

Canadian and GFS showing some possible snow in NE OK/NW AR/SW MO.

I wouldn't get too discouraged right now, it's still 8-10 days out, I'm more comfortable being outside the bullseye, than in it at the moment. I'm still optimistic about this one(maybe foolishly so, but I'm a glass half full kinda guy). One thing is for sure, we need moisture, this drought it getting irritating.

Yeah, that's what I was thinking too. I'm pretty sure this is the same system it was showing earlier, just bumped back a couple days.

GFS GEM EURO I know I'm grasping at straws here, but one of these is bound to pan out, so let's cross our fingers with this one, at least there's a consensus.

I've had to just step back the last week. I tell myself I won't look at the models until I hear the NWS mention something in a forecast discussion, but as a weather enthusiast it's pretty impossible for me to not look at new model runs, lol. So here's to hoping that storm around the 1st does something for us.....but man, we can't buy a a few inches to save our lives right now. That's OK, history is on our side! We are due!

Loving the 06z GFS right now, haha. The Canadian and Euro are picking up on this as well. The Canadian has it further north and faster(so not as heavy rates as we see here on the GFS), and the Euro has it fly up into Wisconsin before it get's organized. But, all three agree on a storm system with cold air on the weekend of Fri the 26th. Still, 8-10 days out.

Very interesting thoughts! I've never had snow stick around more than a few days, maybe 4-5 at the most(ice storm a few years back in the DFW area), I was however in Dallas when we got 12 inches in under 24 hours(Feb 11th, 2010), which, for Dallas, is very impressive. But, it didn't stick around for more than a week. I suppose it's all about perspective and experience. Kinda like when I was a kid and I got into trouble, every once in a while, I got to pick my punishment, get a spanking, or be grounded from something for a week. I chose the flash in the pan option then for the negative, and I'll choose it now for the positive! Haha Oh, here's a snowfall graphic on the Dallas storm for anyone who cares at seeing those sorts of things.

History certainly backs their thoughts too, here's to hoping!

I have to say, if it's between those two options, I'd rather get 8 inches that melt off in 3 days than 3 inches that stick around for a week, but then again, I'm from Dallas, and heavy dumpings followed by quick melts are pretty much all I've ever known. Dilly Dilly!

If we look at months since 1950 where Tulsa received heavy snowfall events, here are the results by month. 1950-2017 10+ inches Nov: 1 Dec: 2 Jan: 3 Feb: 3 Mar: 4 April: 0 8+ inches Nov: 1 Dec: 4 Jan: 4 Feb: 3 Mar: 7 April: 0 6+ inches Nov: 1 Dec: 7 Jan: 9 Feb: 6 Mar: 10 April: 0 So, with that knowledge, March produces more heavy snowfall events than any other month for Tulsa. Just found this to be a very interesting stat. If Feb doesn't produce, you can bet I'll be hugging this statistic tightly.