StormChazer

I'm expecting TSA to upgrade Creek county, Okfuskee, Mcintosh and Hughes to a Winter storm warning, advisories into Tulsa, Wagoner and Muskogee. Just my guess.

Latest GFS brings the precip shield back into Tulsa solidly, but has it as rain. GFS doesn't perform as well with the cold air, so if it's off just a couple degrees, we could be looking at snow instead of a rain/sleet mix in Tulsa metro.

NWS in Norman adjusting totals.

Wow, what a close one this could turn out to be.

It should be noted that Tulsa NWS was predicting a high of 36 earlier for today, and it's now thinking 33 as a high.

Here's the 2 runs side by side. Definitely a NE shift in the snow area. That gradient in Tulsa county goes from a trace in North Tulsa, to 6 inches in the bottom corner.

Euro running right now. The northern trend is continuing......Tulsa, there may be hope yet.

So I'm no meteorologist, but weather has been my passion since I was in the 3rd grade(I'm 28 now), so disclaimer that what I say may not be 100% accurate. In regards to this storm, it's all about cold air. The cold air will be retreating today and tomorrow, so earlier models pushed this storm out quicker, resulting in there being plenty of cold air to work with(combined with the fact that this storm is a cold core storm). But the last couple days' runs slowed the storm down by about 24-32 hours, meaning it had less cold air to work with, so snowfall is ENTIRELY dependent on that cold core. So when the storm went slower, it went more south, keeping that cold core just out of reach for certain areas. If the storm sped up, while it would mean less snow to an extent, the snowfall rates in those deformation bands will still be very high, so it's relatively negligible in my opinion. Hope that helps!

HRRR coming in a little faster than the NAM, these are both at 10Z Thursday. Faster means more cold air sticking around which means more snow.

12ZGFS continuing a slight northern jog.

Definitely a northern jog in the models since last night. I'll probably throw up if OKC get blasted and Tulsa gets nothing; I think I'll take it personal at that point as the weather Gods hating Tulsa, haha. But seeing such a steep gradient in a matter of miles, means that if the storm just moves a tad faster and/or north, then Tulsa could get it on it too. So after abandoning all hope yesterday, I'm back to holding onto a sliver. There's a few members in the Euro that get Tulsa in on the action, and many that are so close that 20 miles makes an ENORMOUS difference.

A Winter Storm Watch just went up west of DFW.

Latest Euro run.

I'll take member 3 please. But euro and nam seem to slow it down some, making it more of a Thursday event than a Wednesday evening. we will see.

GFS is now in agreement with euro and nam, drops 7+ inches in NE OK, I’m into Missouri and Arkansas.

For all that is good in this world. I hope the euro is onto something...because this Tulsan needs snow BAD.

NAM, Euro and Icon(fwiw)all show a snow event setting up for North Texas up into Oklahoma and Arkansas on Wednesday into Thursday. The gfs has ever so slightly trended north the last couple runs, but not anything close to what the nam and euro are showing. This could be an interesting one that’s shaping up just a few days out(my favorite!).

Hoping based on the euro we could squeeze out 3 inches in Tulsa with this upcoming storm. That would be nice.

Something may be lurking around the new year.

I saw that, and that's not even factoring snowfall for the next system that runs through right afterward....IF ONLY.

I don't think we are destined for the same pattern this year. I want to say December was predicted to be a bit warmer and not as favored for winter weather as Nov and then subsequently Jan/Feb. But I can't remember where I had heard that. Still, if you think about it, we had the small snow event in Nov, and then the very near miss a couple weeks ago, which honestly, the last couple years I don't remember near misses so much as just the storm not getting it's act together until it was in east MO and then into the OH valley, or the storms would go waaaayyyy south giving the gulf coast snow. This pattern doesn't feel the same to me, but that's just my opinion. It looks like sometime around the new year, give or take a day or two, we might have our next shot at something wintry. So here's to hoping!

Certainly the best way to avoid disappointment! Lol

When should we start talking seriously about snow chances on Thurs/Fri? Gfs and nam seem to think this thing can drop a decent amount of snow somewhere in OK.

And it'll melt off by the afternoon, but while it falls it'll be a headache.

Long range NAM picking up on it a little bit as well. GFS and NAM have the low in similar places.