StormChazer

As if on queue the GFS has tried to go back to a more northern solution with the cold air. Which it will maintain for maybe 1 more run until going back towards the Euro again. I laughingly say that because it’s done that now that last few days. About 1 more day until the nam can start picking up on it.

The GFS so badly wants to do its own thing and for the past 3 days now, after 2-3 runs of keeping the cold air up north, it’ll cave to the Euro again for another 2-3 runs before trying to go north again. It’s quite funny actually. But this latest gfs run throws some very heavy snowfall and ice in OK.

I love it.

The gfs hasn’t yet settled in on the cold air coming over like the euro and Canadian, I thought it did yesterday, but then today’s runs went north again. We’ll see about the 18z. Euro is king most of the time and the gfs hasn’t been able to make up its mind, unlike the euro; its stuck to its guns the last few days. Someone is in for an ice storm if these models come to pass.

Yeah, you don't want to be in the bullseye 6-7 days out anyway, and that 32 degree line isn't going to be very accurate until a few days out, so the overall trend in the last 24 hours for all the models has been for a significant ice/snow storm in OK/AR/MO/KS, and I'm happy with that.

You beat me to it! That's two runs in a row that the GFS has gone more in line with the Euro, and this last GFS run puts up some big numbers for snow and ice as well. The Canadian unleashes an ice storm as well. Either way, all models at this moment seem to be in pretty good agreement. Let's see what the Euro does here shortly.

Could this be the GFS finally caving to the Euro?

NWS in Norman's first thoughts on the storm so far. "Temps will remain at least 3-5 degrees below average through most of next week. By Thu, though, increasing heights under a shortwave ridge axis and southerly low level flow will result in a brief warmup. Low rain chances will be possible Thu as WAA commences ahead of a main southern stream trough. Precipitation chances will then increase Friday-Sat with the mid to upper trough. The question then becomes in what form. The ECMWF continues to surge an arctic air mass southward Fri which would likely support all types of winter weather as far south as the Red River. For now, based on the fairly fast progression of this synoptic feature snowfall accumulations should remain on the light side. However, freezing rain and sleet may also be possible. This will be watched closely over the next several days." That's obviously the preliminary thoughts for just the Noman forecast area, but I'm guessing this weekend we will get a decent write up on it.

All in all, the Euro stuck to it's guns. I'd say the only major differences would be the precip isn't quite as heavy, but still moderate, and exact amounts this far out don't matter. The area of freezing rain has shifted more to the east, but other than that, the Euro maintains.

Yeah, I can't say that I have ever seen the freezing line approaching from the east and slowly retreating west.....that just doesn't make any sense to me, but ice storms muddle things up, so I guess there's always a chance? Yeah, when it grabs something a under a week out, it's such a nice surprise, tracking a storm 10 days out, only for nothing to happen is the absolute worst. But what counts is all the models show the moisture in place and the elements for a winter storm, so 7 days out, that is pretty good. Time to see what the Euro does.

The Canadian moved away from the GFS and came around more towards the GFS-FV3(which btw, has this model seen any kind of success so far?) as depicting an ice storm. Still waiting on the GFS-FV3 to finish up it's 12Z run, the GFS though maintains keeping the cold air just to the north and northeast of Oklahoma. I'm very intrigued to see if the Euro sticks to it's guns or relents some towards the GFS. I can see this being a very difficult one to forecast with the ice element to this one. This smells like an ice storm for someone and models just stink at judging that shallow layer of cold air.

I noticed that. Short and sweet, but they did say "this could be more significant." Nebraska and south Dakota are about to get slammed with " 9-14 inches of snow" according to the NWS in North Platte, NE, and it's going to remain below freezing the entire week leading up to our event, so that snowpack will potentially have an impact on the speed of the cold air. Yeah, should be an interesting one!

Here are the last 4 runs of the Euro. I'm not going to get caught up on amounts(although this latest run surprised me), but the trend is pretty undeniable. Checking all 50 members as well, paints an interesting picture. Only 10 members showed a scenario where noone gets in on more than 2-3 inches of snow, and even more surprisingly, 27 of the members showed a scenario where someone gets in on 4-6 inches, and 22 showed 6-8 inches, I could go higher but I'm digressing. It's actually more members than this, but I'm trying to keep this to OK/TX/NW AR/S KS/SW MO. Point of all this rambling is that the Euro has definitely been trending towards a more significant and warning criteria storm next week. After today's severe weather threat is over, I suspect the NWS and the local meteorologists will start talking more about it. I'm sure here in about 2 days we'll start to get the over hyping posts on social media using the most intense member possible. On the complete opposite side of things, the GFS has decided it doesn't know what it's doing. After being fairly agreeable with the Euro yesterday, I'm not going to say it's gone out to lunch, but I can't picture the scenario it's trying to depict....the precip timing, temp gradient/locations, the whole thing just looks awkward and climatologically(sp?) speaking, I'm not seeing how that pans out. But, it could know something the Euro doesn't, We'll see what the trends are today.

I'll have what this member is having...2 feet of snow? Not in my wildest dreams! Haha. Joking aside, we are just about 1 week out now from the onset of this storm. It's looking fairly likely someone is going to be getting in on some good snow(and possibly ice), it now comes down to where that 32 degree line sets up and how much moisture is with it. The euro is trending a bit colder now, we'll see what the 18Z GFS thinks. I think this storm is going to make someone a happy camper, but then again, 1 week is an eternity in meteorology.

Yeah, for NE OK, I'd say 85% of the models show snow, and of those models ~50% of them show 4+ inches, I know getting caught up on actual amounts is trivial, but it shows a trend that depicts at least a moderate amount, question is, moderate what? I didn't even think about the recent snowpack making it possibly easier for the cold air to spread. It's a pretty cool week leading up to next weekend too, so ground temps won't be near as warm as some events in the past where essentially the first few hours of frozen precip are negligible. I'll see what the latest Euro says shortly, see if that clears or muddles things up at all.

Not half bad agreement for something 8-10 days out.

Been watching Dec 7-9 pretty closely now. Both the Euro and GFS seem to agree we are getting a robust system moving through OK.AR.MO.KS. They also seem to indicate this may be an ice event. Models don't usually handle shallow cold air very well, and the freezing line tends to trend further south than they suggest, so this should be interesting. The GFS keeps flip flopping, one run it keeps the cold air up in Nebraska, the next brings it back down into OK. Last nights 00Z Euro run looks very similar to today's 12z GFS, will be interested to see what the 12Z Euro says. Either way, this looks as of right now, to be our first real shot at a decent winter storm, but still waaaay too early to get our hopes up(but I am anyway).

I'm (foolishly) watching Dec 3/4 intently to see if we can't squeeze out some measurable snowfall for NE OK. I need a winter storm warning, 1,362 days is just far too long for any snow lover to go without. It really is crazy when you stare at this map at just how unlucky NE OK/SW MO has been.... But I firmly think this is the year to break the streak, with the pattern that is setting up, I feel we will see a 5+ inch storm this December, then a lull in January and then another hefty snow/ice storm in February. The last 3-4 runs of the GFS has shown the snow line move northward, but the Euro is just now finally realizing there is something going on that day, and it shows a much further south(and dry) solution, so I'm interested to see what the 12z runs look like today.

If I’m not mistaken, with the KC office issuing winter storm warnings, that breaks a long drought does it not? I remember looking at a graphic posted last year of how many days it had been since a winter storm warning had been issued. Anyone know where to find that? Feeling good about this year being the year Tulsa gets in on some appreciable snow.

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php Honest question, should we be concerned here in Tulsa? That's a very large band of heavy precip headed our way and it's still 27 degrees here in Tulsa. Does the High res tend to overdo amounts?

1/2 inch of freezing rain in Tulsa as evening rush hour is out would be a nightmare. The HRRR just keep pumping up Tulsa's numbers.

I've been watching the HRRR ice totals slowly creep closer and higher in the Tulsa area, going to be a fine line(as usual).

Brand new GFS is painting a dangerous picture for Tulsa and SW Missouri....

Officially 32 in Tulsa now, still plenty more precip headed our way, plus the NAM and HRR indicating a decent surge of moisture for Wed night/Thurs morning.

Doesn't surprise me, and with another shield of precip headed that way with temps in the mid twenties, I find it hard to believe we won't see some ice storm warnings issued.