StormChazer

Thanks for all the positive feedback. Yeah, model watching can get so draining after a while, and for someone like me who has a tough time at taking models past a few days worth a grain of salt, I can't help but get my hopes up. That all being said, February and March actually seem to be the most frequent producers of high snowfall according to Tulsa's records, with March particularly throwing out some pretty high numbers. I've got to think that happens when the spring pattern begins to take shape and moisture becomes plentiful, so any cold air shot gives a storm plenty of QPF to work with. Right now, all this cold air is pushing so deep that the atmosphere has been starved of moisture, hence why we keep seeing south TX and the gulf coast throwing out WSW. When the dead of winter begins to retreat some, I think that's when we see our best shot. This weekend is shaping up to look more like a late March pattern with thunderstorms in the forecast, hopefully this bodes well for the coming weeks and we get an extremely juicy storm slam through the area.

Thank you. To add some more hope. Tulsa has NEVER gone 7 years in a row without breaking double digits in a year and has gone 6 years in a row with less than 10 inches per year only 3 other times since record keeping. The first time, 1907-1912, only to get 18.2 inches in 1913. The second time, 1931-1936(Dust Bowl), went on to get 14 inches in 1937. The third time, 1938-1943(Dust Bowl/leftover drought), received 15.3 inches in 1944. And now 2012-2017, I've got to think based on history that 2018 delivers 10+ inches. I don't want to break a record for longest streak of <10 inches ever recorded for Tulsa.

I've been crunching the numbers for Tulsa, OK to see what the 5 year totals have been since 1900 to give some of us hope that history is on our side. Keep in mind these are YEARLY totals, not SEASONAL. 1900-1904: 14.9 inches 1905-1909: 46.9 inches 1910-1914: 22.7 inches 1915-1919: 47.5 inches 1920-1924: 58.1 inches 1925-1929: 40.6 inches 1930-1934: 27.5 inches 1935-1939: 27.5 inches 1940-1944: 42.1 inches 1945-1949: 51.8 nches 1950-1954: 45.0 inches 1955-1959: 51.3 inches 1960-1964: 48.9 inches 1965-1969: 48.4 inches 1970-1974: 47.4 inches 1975-1979: 48.8 inches 1980-1984: 30.6 inches 1985-1989: 65.0 inches 1990-1994: 33.8 inches 1995-1999: 36.1 inches 2000-2004: 62.3 inches 2005-2009: 47.6 inches 2010-2014: 61.7 inches 2015-2017: 11.8 inches This averages out to 43.76 inches every 5 years, as you can see, we've been above that average since 2000, where we hit a high 62.3 inches for that 5 year period. We are currently at 11.8 inches in our 3 years(6.6 of these inches came in 2015), so for us to hit the average we need to get 31.96 inches this year and 2019 combined. We average 8.62 inches a year, so if history is on our side, and we can obtain average, then we are in for a great 2 years, but more likely, we end up below average for this 5 year period, which I think we've been spoiled the last 15 years with above average snowfall(years that I was living in TX). But I'm going to look on the bright side. While analyzing all these years, it is clear that each winter is unique, the data I'm seeing, it's clear that every 3 ish years there is a well above average year that doubles or even triples the normal amount, and with 3 years below average now, I think we are due either in the next 2 months, or the end of 2018 for a bomb that compensates for these sad numbers. I have every year's totals here for anyone interested. Hope this brightens some outlooks! We are due, history is on our side!

Pardon me, I actually found more updated numbers going further back. Only once since 1900 has it snowed less than 3 inches 3 years in a row, and that was... 1910: Trace 1911: 0.8 1912: 1.9 They broke that drought in 1913 with 18.2 inches that year

If this season doesn't produce anymore snow, it will be the first time since they started keeping records in Tulsa(1950's) that 3 consecutive seasons see 3 inches or less of snow. Just a fun fact, haha.

Yup. It doesn't help that you know all this cold air is being wasted. If the patterns were in our favor, this had the potential to be a record breaking season.

What's worse, I moved here from Dallas, and this is my 3rd winter up here now...which have all been virtually fruitless. I thought when I moved 4 hours north I'd get a lot more! Haha. But you are right, there are a lot of people who are happy today and I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade...but the weather enthusiast in me is crying. Just one, 3+ incher and I'll be satisfied until next winter.

Yup...It's infuriating to to see that heavy band set up so close to us, and then see it's going to form to our south as well...it's like a sick joke.

Model running is hard on the emotions, haha. I can't help but daydream when I see one project a huge snowstorm for me, only to have it completely absent the next day...

Yup, here's to hoping this run of the GFS leans towards the last EURO run for next Thursday. The GFS also had quite the system moving in from the west for next weekend, lets see if it's still there this run!

That's the thing about this track, any shift could make someone go from nothing to a whole lotta something, really quick.

I'm seeing a little bit more of the models suggesting some light snow on the back end of the storm as it moves off to the NE and creates quite an event for Ohio Valley region, thinking St. Louis might be in an icy situation. I'm starting to look ahead to the 16th, looks like all the major models agree there will be a storm system moving through the region at the time. I think that's our next shot.

Canadian running, lets see what happens.

What I wouldn't give.....

The Euro definitely is our friend right now in this situation. Looks like the Euro and Canadian feel there will be some colder air in place, but also set up a potential icy situation for many. Meanwhile, the latest run of the GFS pushed the storm even further north. Here's to hoping that was an outlier and the next run begins to look more like the others.

Can you link or post that? Thanks!

12Z Canadian came in with alot more oomph.

These are a few of my personal favorites. I know its over a week out but I need something to look forward to!

Oh, sorry, 12th-14th.

There's a pretty decent number of members from the Euro showing quite a dumping of snow over the OK,AR,MO,KS, etc, area. I'd say a little over half the members show a widespread snow event, with 6+ inches.

Yeah, the GFS still shows something similar, just not as heavy or widespread, same with the NAM and WRF.

The Canadian really wants to put a patch of moderate freezing drizzle/mix over Eastern OK/Western AR. The way temps have been, and the temp it will be when that comes around, anything that falls will immediately stick and begin to accumulate.

I would hate to see all this cold air go to waste.... I'd be so happy with 3 inches that stick around for a few days. Looks like this next system I'll have to be happy with an inch, although there's a lot of time between now and Sunday.

Any thoughts on this potential storm this upcoming week? Doesn’t seem like models can get a consensus.

I was at work off 21st and Lewis in Tulsa.