StormChazer

New Euro. Pretty much the same setup with just slightly adjusted amounts, lowers Tulsa snowfall by 1 inch, but sets up an even heavier band just to the north, little things like this aren't something to be analyzed super hard on a long range model, so in my mind a 4-6 inch scenario is still likely for Tulsa as of right now.

Was asking that myself haha

Looks like they've updated it and upped the totals.

12z GFS just looks horrid. It does seem like all the major models agree that NW of OKC will get a good helping of snow, but then the GFS just looks bad, but that makes sense since it handles cold air so poorly.

Looks like about a dozen models give central AR a good snow, another 12 have the Little Rock area RIGHT on that line of no snow to heavy snow, and the remaining 26 don't look too promising.

Is it finally our turn? Are we going to break out of this snowless pattern with a vengeance? I sure hope so... Nice research!

I've been analyzing the Euro runs for a couple days now, here is my findings from last night in regards to how the Tulsa metro is affected. 10 members show 0-2 inches of snow 6 near misses or right on the steep snow gradient 34 members show heavy snow(I'm defining "heavy" as 4+ inches) 20% little to nothing 12% near misses or right on the steep snow gradient 68% Winter storm warning criteria So there has definitely been a trend, each run of the Euro is putting more and more members with a large swath of Oklahoma getting a good amount of snow.

Here's the euro. I should note that there are quite a few ensembles that show numbers near or at what the NAM is showing.

12Z NAM, these totals are with the storm still not out of the area just yet. We all know the NAM totals are going to be exaggerated this far out, but it corroborates with the Euro pretty well. I wonder when the GFS is going to get on board(if ever).

Aside from it being 1300+ days since a winter storm warning, it’s also been 691 days since issuing a winter storm watch. They probably forgot how. Joking aside, I’m sure it has to just do with timing, OKC area will get in on it probably 3-6 hours before Tulsa, so I’m betting Tulsa issues watches this afternoon.

This is looking like an ever colder nam run I think.

I’m with you! Haha I think maybe 48? Because they upgrade to warning usually 24 hours out. I think?.....

GFS went a touch cooler than the 12Z run, so there is a cooling trend the last couple runs now.

Haha, I was thinking the exact same thing. This is very much a "I don't want to deal with this until tomorrow, so I'll just insert of bunch of agreeable statements that don't actually clear anything up", and like you said, I really don't blame them one bit lol.

Had a local met say just about the same thing last night. In a cloudy, northerly wind filled day, that 32 degree line isn't going back up into Kansas, it's sticking around.

Up to hour 84 and the NAM is doing a number on Oklahoma(much of that is sleet).

Here are my findings from this afternoon's run of the Euro. 10 members give little(under 1-2 in) to no snow for Tulsa and surrounding areas. 9 Near misses or right on the steep snow gradient(2 to 8 inches within a span of 20 miles) 31 Heavy snow runs This is a drastic turn around from last night's euro run both in the master solution and the ensembles. The way I see it as of right now according to the Euro... 20% of little to nothing 18% RIGHT on the line 62% Good, winter storm warning criteria weather

NAM is coming in a little cooler at hour 39 so far, by about 2 degrees.

Here are the Euro ensembles. I'll post an update on my analysis of them for the Tulsa area in a bit.

I'll post the Euro ensembles here shortly. they're out to hour 48 so far.

For those wondering.

Yeah, it's a good run for OK and AR, not so much KS and MO.

There we go!

Wouldn't that give us a colder solution?

Saying hi to everyone! Always nice to get more banter in here!