I've lived in North TX for about 25 years and OK now for 3, and when it comes to winter weather events, they tend to play out nearly identical. I know in my experience, it seems more often that not, that 24 hours or so before the event, everything tends to trend just a little cooler. Probably because the models need to initialize colder and start to pick up on how to handle the cold air just a bit better(which tends to be that it's underestimated the cold air), this usually sees winter storm watches or other advisories bump up an extra line of counties. Once this storm comes on shore, I think we'll get a much better painted picture, and today's NAM runs will be particularly useful since it handles cold air better(the two runs so far have already shown the air is colder than any other models).
I'll say this much, every time I can recall that I've ever received a heavy dumping of snow, it's been when the forecast calls for maybe half that, and then the cold air comes in quicker and doubles our totals out of "seemingly" nowhere.
I'd love to see the GFS and Euro start a cooling trend today, but frankly, the long range models are always going to struggle with this cold air, it's just the nature of the beast. My eyes are going to start focusing on the NAM here soon.