StormChazer

00Z GFS stays with the 18Z run’s thinking. There’s still hope.

I’m going to go ahead and post the 18Z Euro by the 12Z for those interested. It’s the 18Z so don’t get too caught up in the tiny details, still holding onto its thinking.

Meanwhile, 9 days out the GFS keeps hinting at a horrible ice storm.

TSA "The wintry precipitation will develop after midnight Friday through Saturday morning. The global models have been consistently showing the deeper cold air will plunge south across central/western Oklahoma before arriving into our area. This will favor a freezing rain/sleet set up at least initially, with all rain south of the freezing line overnight Saturday. By Saturday morning, most areas will be cold enough for snow, with some freezing rain possibly lingering for portions of northwest Arkansas. Potential for a heavy snow band exists within the deformation zone which will move across the area on Saturday. The ECM/Canadian have indicated a slower solution, which would allow snow to persist longer across eastern Oklahoma than the NAM/GFS. The heaviest snows will likely be north and west of Tulsa, with several inches of snow possible. Negative EPV values and strong frontogenetical forcing suggest the possibility of banding and heavy snow rates, mainly on Saturday morning. For those who have travel plans this weekend, please check the latest forecasts, as there will be travel impacts for portions of the area."

Doesn't mean it should be thrown out altogether imo. It's old upper air data combined with new surface data. I still think there's a trend to follow.

So drastically different than the 12Z run. So we've got the NAM, which blasts Western and Central OK The Euro which hits central OK And the GFS which hits Eastern OK and NW AR.

GFS to the rescue.

Closes off quickly and then grazes by...I'm glad this run is 72 hours out and not 36... just need it to scoot a little east....

Stark difference. Agreed on the 06Z euro comment.

BUCKLE UP FOR THIS NAM.

NAM is looking different than past runs so far.

Honestly, the ensembles look to me to be about the same....

Gut feeling this euro is going to go way north.

I believe tomorrow morning.

06Z GFS and 12Z GFS looking for the most part the same, with the exception of slightly lighter amounts in Western MO. 12Z NAM vs 06Z has the system wrap up in KS as opposed to OK, backs off of snowfall in OK to around about an inch, and bombs in KS. Overall, GFS holds steady after jumping more towards the Euro overnight(good to see the 12Z run of the GFS do that, as the 06Z and 18Z can be unreliable). Will see what the Euro does, I've got to think it's going to move the goal posts a little bit and go a touch north after shifting so far south(as models tend to do until they hit a nice in-between). All we need really is for the NAM to sync up with the Euro and we can start locking in a solution at this point in time. Also, if you take any stock in the 06Z Euro, it maintains the overnight's thinking of a southern solution.

GFS continues to cave to the Euro.

NAM starting to pick up on it now too.

Euro members emphatically support this OP run as well.

Holy cow!

Whoa, Euro is doubling down with a much southern run so far,

Canadian back tracked somewhat as well from the noon run that sent it up to KS

Keeps inching its way toward the euro. I really really need curious if the euro holds its ground this run.

I'm not saying we take the ICON seriously, but I will note that it has had a trend over the last few runs of going from a GFS solution to a Euro solution.

You can also see the difference in the placement as well, the main swath moves west quite considerably because it's wrapping up quicker. Keep that trend up and it won't be that far off the Euro.