StormChazer

06z HRRR

Tulsa has expanded the winter storm watch further South.

Important NAM run in progress.

Wouldn't worry too much as the GFS has been the outlier this whole time and has been slowly moving NW toward the other models.

Don't you put that evil on me!

Winter Storm Watch issued for Tulsa.

Difference between the 3K NAM and 12K NAM is stressing me out since this is such a fine line...

06Z Euro for inquiring minds.

Tulsa’s thoughts on issuing a Winter Storm Watch. ” In addition to the previous discussion, a Winter Storm Watch was considered for portions of northeast Oklahoma for this forecast update. Opted, however, to not include a watch at this time due to some uncertainties in amounts. With that said, there is still the potential for several inches of snow to fall somewhere over the CWA with the greatest confidence somewhere near the I-44 corridor. If snowfall accumulation trends continue an upward trend, a Winter Storm Watch may be needed by tomorrow night.”

First snowfall map I’ve seen anyone put out so far. Think it’s leanings little too heavily on the Euro and should be pushed SE some, but that’s just me.

That’s it. I don’t care. I’m declaring this. “The One”. Yes, I know it’s the long range NAM, yes, I know the storm hasn’t been sampled yet, yes, I know there’s no science behind my claim. But I don’t care. I’m going to will this to happen! Not these numbers necessarily, but I’m declaring this is the one that breaks our 3 inch snow drought!

TSA’s current thoughts from 3:30 AM is 1-2 inches across NE OK, but said they’re going with a. Conservative approach right now.

06z nam with a shift north.

Canadian has actually done really well this winter. Its sometimes been the first to sniff something out and then the euro comes around. Same deal here. Liking the latest Euro run!

Once again.....looking like Tulsa and NW AR barely miss out on one. going to be 34 degrees and heavy rain, and that'll just piss me right off lol.

I know......

My interest is piqued.

I'm thinking this last half of January is our best shot for the winter to get something substantial. I've got a good feeling.

This Thurs-Sat system has the makings of something great IF we can get the cold air to stick around. I say great, but if we get anything it would be an ice storm. But you know what? Give it to me.

18Z NAM Deformation zone smack centered over Tulsa.

I think the NAM is following in the Euro and HRRR's trends.

I mean, that’s really far south.

Also has Tulsa getting .2 inches of freezing rain. If the NWS buys this run, and the HRRR continues to reflect it, I think they'll expand the winter storm watch.

LOCK. THIS. IN.