StormChazer

NAM is now biting on the closed low; first run to do so.

Tulsa NWS thoughts. It's a good read. "The late week system has changed greatly in the past 24 hours with even more agreement between the GFS and ECMWF runs. With this agreement comes a very messy forecast. Both the GFS and ECMWF are now showing a closed low developing over TX before wrapping up and moving sharply to the north either along the OK/AR border (ECMWF) or through eastern AR (GFS). The 12Z ECMWF is pretty similar to its 00Z counterpart but shifts the heavier snow band a tad west while the GFS saw a more noticeable shift to the west which suggests higher snow totals across NE OK and NW AR. One other thing to note with this system and has been a headache to forecast for - will be the potential of a warm layer between 925 and 850mb which will play significant role in precipitation type and amounts starting Wednesday evening and continuing through Friday morning. Both models wobble the 850mb freezing line along the I-44 corridor Thursday morning before retreating westward briefly Thursday afternoon (as the upper low approaches and wraps warm air around). This wobbling of 850mb line with temps below freezing at the surface will allow for mixed precipitation with sleet and freezing rain possible. Snow amounts will obviously be impacted based on the amount of sleet and freezing rain (or even just rain) that falls. 850Mb temps then fall quickly through the overnight hours as the upper low passes somewhere between W AR and E AR. This would be the best opportunity for accumulating snow across the area with NE OK and NW AR likely seeing the best chances for accumulating snow. With this update and long story short, opted to enhance ice totals across SE OK and NW AR closer to the track of the upper low and upped snowfall totals across the area with the most notable increase in snow totals across NE OK mainly Thursday evening and overnight as the atmospheric column cools below freezing. There are still many uncertainties with this forecast such as where ice could fall/accumulate and how much snow we could ultimately see across the area thus this forecast will be refined over the next couple of days." -TSA TLDR: There will be a lot of snow where the sleet and freezing rain don't limit amounts.

I'm not sure that the members show things like ice/sleet. Someone more experienced with models would have to answer that, but I've never found it.

12Z Euro Members.

Lays down almost an inch of ice in Tulsa followed by 7 inches of snow. I’m cautiously optimistic right now. Just East of the highest totals on the Euro, and just west of the highest totals on the GFS & Canadian. Right where I want to be 4 days out from the onset of this storm.

12Z Euro going further west.

Well here’s to hoping not, because the Canadian cut me deep that run.

We officially have all the major players set on this solution. Now we start refining the amounts and exact locations.

GFS looks like it may be hopping on board now as well.

It goes out 90 hours.

So FWIW here was the 6Z Euro. definitely more snow on the back end already.

12Z Euro....I'll take one of these please.

Euro is buying it.

Hour 111 on Euro and so far it looks like its a touch west.

Yeah, these kinds of crazy model runs are the ones that only verify once a lifetime, but I've been in 5 inches of sleet before, and let me tell you, the roads are impassable for nearly a week.

I'll take these westward nudges with a closed off low. Slow and steady. Canadian running right now. On hr 33.

00ZGFS did seem to inch more towards a solution between the12Z Euro and 12Z Canadian.

About 23 of the 50 Euro members offer up a solution in varying degrees and locations, similar to the Canadian....

Also, there are some Euro members picking up on a similar solution. Here is the mean 2 day snowfall.(This EXCLUDES the initial system that moves through and dumps lots of snow in NE and IA.)

Just posting the model porn that is the 12Z Canadian.

Merry Christmas!

Yeah, all the different models agree that this system should be very rich in moisture, so whoever gets the cold air should be in for a heavy snow!

Here you are!