StormChazer

Euro is buying it.

Hour 111 on Euro and so far it looks like its a touch west.

Yeah, these kinds of crazy model runs are the ones that only verify once a lifetime, but I've been in 5 inches of sleet before, and let me tell you, the roads are impassable for nearly a week.

I'll take these westward nudges with a closed off low. Slow and steady. Canadian running right now. On hr 33.

00ZGFS did seem to inch more towards a solution between the12Z Euro and 12Z Canadian.

About 23 of the 50 Euro members offer up a solution in varying degrees and locations, similar to the Canadian....

Also, there are some Euro members picking up on a similar solution. Here is the mean 2 day snowfall.(This EXCLUDES the initial system that moves through and dumps lots of snow in NE and IA.)

Just posting the model porn that is the 12Z Canadian.

Merry Christmas!

Yeah, all the different models agree that this system should be very rich in moisture, so whoever gets the cold air should be in for a heavy snow!

Here you are!

FWIW, here is the mean 48 hour snowfall of the Euro members yesterday at noon to midnight last night. BIG JUMP 12Z Yesterday 00Z Last Night

No kidding, and the euro didn’t do us many favors either.

Silly to analyze models with extreme scrutiny 7-8 day out, but I'm gonna do it anyways. Before the event, we(NE OK/SW MO/NW AR) are at or below freezing for about 18 hours, then the event starts, temps surge to upper 40's and low 50's, and then plummet back below freezing as it exits. Shallow cold air on this one, models do poorly in these situations and always underestimate the cold air's ability to linger, and want to let the warm air come push it out. In this scenario, cold air comes in, get's entrenched, then models want 30-40mph winds(gusts) from the south to come in and push it all out during the duration of the rain/snowfall only to have in come back in full force less than 24 hour after it gets pushed out. I'm not really buying that. That warm air would just go right over the top of the shallow cold air in that scenario. Which sets us up for sleet/freezing rain. But hey, I'm obsessing over 1 run of the euro 7 days out...so you know....there's that.

Yeah, that's....odd haha.

12Z GFS- What an absolute mess

Last night’s Canadian for laughs.

Yeah, it went bonkers and I laughed it off. Then I saw the 00Z Euro.

This is the mean snowfall for all 50 members on the Euro through noon on the 31st. Here is last night's 00z run vs the 12z run today. A promising trend.

Euro also picking up on it, albeit much much more tame.

Choo Choo!

Latest 12Z GFS supporting this...

Gfs isn’t showing it on simulated precip, but that’s looking like a New Year’s Eve(give or take a day) ice storm given those near 32 degree temps and rain.