StormChazer

I'm in physical pain

Love it when there's traffic on the highway of storms this time of year!

Going to have to correct myself. It’s been snowing heavy now and stuff is starting to turn white.

Snowing up here in Owasso. Big flakes, mixed with rain, definitely won’t stick but nice to look at.

12Z NAM coming in weaker, leading to a larger freezing precip area.

Can someone more meteorologically inclined than myself answer this question? If this system drops 4-5 inches of snow to the NE of Tulsa in a line parallel to the front, can that snowpack actually push the freezing line forward the next day further than if it didn’t snow?

GFS goes pretty hard on that initial band of snow Wed night. Then creeps ever closer to Tulsa with that freezing rain line.

18ZRDPS holding consistent.

18Z NAM looking colder. I think this run is going to rock the boat.

I’m going ride or die mode on the Canadian because I’m both a weenie and it’s been very very consistent from the onset and sniffed this thing out.

Gfs inched that freezing rain line closer to Tulsa.

What he said ^^^

Also, the 6Z euro, did come in about a degree or so colder, fwiw. Inching the frozen precip maybe 15 miles.

6Z RDPS a little more East than it’s 12Z run and the 6Z GFS is a hair south.

Considerable jump east, and the Euro has been following it recently. FWIW Aaron Tuttle seems to think the Euro is too far west and will move east again. He also thinks there's good merit to what the HRRR was picking up on, on Wednesday.

Can’t take the long range HRRR too seriously, but it’s certainly worth watching! Because that’s some decently heavy precip!

I'm gonna weenie post really quick and state something completely unfounded by science. The Canadian was the first to sniff this out, so I'm gonna ride it all the way. Now for the unfounded, weenie part. This just feels like a bad ice storm for Tulsa.

18Z NAM looks nearly identical.

18Z RDPS smoking Tulsa with freezing rain.

Hr 55 on the Euro and it's looking a little cooler right now than the 00Z run last night. Or maybe it's just the front is coming through quicker.

TSA does address the warm air. "The Wed night through Friday forecast remains difficult. Good consensus does exist in a closed low developing within the base of the broader trough axis by early Thursday then lifting northeastward into the Missouri Valley by Friday afternoon. The much more uncertain aspect remains the exact track and the associated influence on thermal profiles and respective precip types as the system passes. A clear westward trend continues within the operational ECMWF while the operational GFS remains on the eastern periphery of its ensemble suite. Furthermore the latest EC ensemble suite show a notable warming trend in the lowest levels compared to recent runs, all of which would favor the forecast leaning toward the stronger western solution of the upper low passage. The lack of a deep cold low level airmass in advance of the upper low also favors a warming thermal profile well west of the sfc low track. Noteworthy is the continued presence of the unseasonably high moisture content airmass and its likely influence in yielding a broader and heavier precip footprint within the western semicircle of the upper low. The forecast trending toward the warmer solution does limit snow potential but also raises the potential for an area of light to moderate freezing rain. Currently the favored region for notable ice accumulations would be across far NE OK into far NW AR. Obviously plenty of moving parts in this forecast scenario and the forecast should be expected to change."

6Z GFS nudged back west this morning from last night’s run.

Interesting run on the Euro. I thought after seeing the GFS and Canadian take an eastern solution, the Euro may nudge more eastward, but instead it went even further west...haha..

Pretty par for the course that far out on the NAM