Vice-Regent

More BLOCKING Pls

2 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

I thought I jokingly said something similar earlier in the year... i apologize for my words and will think about what I’ve done.

We will need weenie tribunals en masse. WxWatcher007 will be the head administration of the Truth and Reconciliation department.

Death by "too much" blocking. One would expect this to happen eventually because the flow becomes too meridional on the North America side locking the cold air into Siberia/Europe.

8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I love how in Tennessee, kentucky, Indiana and Ohio it shows rain with sub 522 dm thicknesses.  That's...special.

A special kind of failure.

3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Literally laughed out loud at this.

People stopped tracking tropical too? I will remember this.

4 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

So... we're no longer in an Ice Age?

We are in deep you know what ... but there is always a silver lining no more ice age's.

Just now, IronTy said:

This winter is horseshit.  At least last winter was warm and I could open my windows.  This winter kicks dirt in the face because it's relatively cold yet still no snow.

4 minutes ago, IceCAPS said:

Okay, I'll bite.... what comet are you referring to?  Color me intrigued/worried.

And, damn it, we're going to have a solid winter this season fueled by a back loaded series of storms to get us close to normal totals... I'm feeling the law of averages are in our favor as we're due!

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The h5 changes on the gfs from run to run are comical. It’s like playing Yahtzee with the sw’s. Shake up the dice and roll it out.

This model is the devil. Just unreal biases and no real-world usability.

Long-term cold bias in winter and warm bias in summer. This model is so bad the only thing the updated GFS does better is tropical cyclones.

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Great. Frozen brown ground

At least you can go ice skating and then proceed to die due to top layer freezing too quickly. xD

All joking aside .. this won't play out.

4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Pretty sure the coast has tripled my snow fall since 2016.

Many have benefited and it makes it easier to swallow. However as it was before people were lulled into a false sense of positivity about snowfall and negative albedo feedbacks. That we could persist in this above average era for a long time (2 decades+). My initial abrupt climate change prediction (made in 2017) was 2020 give or take 2 years.

I am sure there was one or two that thought it could overcome the long-term warming trend but AGW is not a land-coupled warming. It begins in the ocean and warms the land with cloud cover feedbacks.

At least at the coast you know you are out of the game for sure in marginal setups. I think we are nearing the end of the road for old climo and the GFS biases are obstructing that concept.

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

He has his opinions on NWP, which he is certainly entitled to, but opinions not backed by facts aren't worth much in the scientific community. Not sure why he even posts here, other than to troll.

Sometimes a broken clock is right twice a day.

4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

I heard july is gonna be hotter than December

Remember that one year? October was hotter than August. Sadly the exact year escapes me.

Colder rain

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Well, we were told it was meteorologically impossible anyway.  I cant remember who that was lol.

It is now impossible because the land-ocean contrast has increased too much. Stuff can still dig in that far south but not as far east. It's complicated.

3 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

TERPS!!

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Yoga TERF

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The -NAO with a horrid Pac isn't likely to make many people happy, so..

The other interesting thing with the advertised +heights over Baffin in the LR- and this is being debated in the NE forum- is that it may be the result of mild Pac air flow across Canada, warming and expanding the column, and producing those anomalous 500 mb heights, vs an actual ridge(anticyclone) which should have an adjacent trough over the east. I am not sure if I buy that, but there doesn't seem to be much curvature to the height lines once the +heights move into the sweet spot. I think that is probably more an artifact of a smoothed mean 15 days out. Either way, the PAC needs to become less hostile going forward or we will likely continue to struggle for chances of frozen.

Even a 2009-10 type negative NAO event couldn't get the job done. People are rightfully upset.

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Man if you think people are panicking here...check out the NE subforum. Probably bad news for us when they are melting.

They got our old climo and sometimes you could say it was worse not knowing the outcome. Not only this but one must contend with a colder rain.

Classic sadness at the shore but at least we are good at what we do.

3 minutes ago, REH said:

Here are the actual temps from the same time period your anomaly map is from. Same GEPS, same run. This will Look completely different come January 11th but that is cold enough to snow. People see those reds and think we are talking 50’s and 60’s. We aren’t 

You are not factoring in airmass moderation. This is a prime concern in the sub-tropics when airmasses need a large sub-polar cold reservoir to draw from over multiple days as they moderate below 45N.

Complicated further by expansive warm sectors and land-ocean contrast when the storms actually come. It's why we have been stuck in cutter hell since Mid December.

14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The teleconnections do not agree with the ensembles at all. 

Very odd to see

Do I need to explain this stuff again? First of all it's a La Nina and secondly we just had our warmest November on record globally by a lot.