Vice-Regent

I don't know about your perspective but the only place not torching is the arctic. That's exactly why this is happening... common sense people it cannot be warm everywhere at the same time.

As much as I hate to admit it it's not 2050 or 2100.

Newest GEFS suite seems problematic too many factors at play to say for sure that it's fishing. Henri also moved SW all of the big ones trek southwestward is indicative of other factors.

5 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

Whats with these storms past few years just suddenly strengthening right before landfall

You got it backwards. What was it before with the sudden weakening

Just a bonus storm. Should of never existed anyway in a sense I will take it.

1 minute ago, NeonPeon said:

It hasn't significantly changed, there's been no attempt for the deeper convection to begin wrapping around at all.

That's a bad thing if you don't want impacts. It's slowing the storm down there is no organized structure... yet

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

It's pretty clear ... whomever's near the "6.66" is doomed to hell -

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Well they have to for a large viewership. 

Going by that logic we should of kept orange dust around. Just enjoy the storm don't over-analyze the situation. There will be more to come.

4 minutes ago, Heat Miser said:

Agreed. I could have bought into that possibility yesterday, but the window is quickly closing on significant intensification.

Category 2 is nothing. Really easily doable... have you guys lived through a category 2? A well-build cabin can withstand those conditions. It's insulting to say that we cannot reach it we are a cane town now just watch.

We lost the snow but we gained the cane. Cancels out...

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Ugly, this will be a naked swirl with shallow convection at this latitude

The center is very elongated and south of there and this storm is still crawling. It may not make it to your latitude per say.

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

NOGAPs is way west, basically into NYC

It's ovah' guys. Worst model dumpster fire in recent memory.

Just now, David-LI said:

FWIW, GFS did well with Elsa last month.

It does good but in really hardcore borderline situations like this it falls apart.

Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

My gut says Martha's Vineyard

I see you have a very unruly gut. May want to get that checked out

It's starting to bifurcate already as you can see into the southern camp of Euro ECNs. I am markedly more concerned than I was this morning it looked like shear would win out.

Could just be my inner weenie but 12z GFS looks suspect. We won't anything until it actually begins moving Northward.

2 minutes ago, TheBudMan said:

This is like a winter storm.   Can't wait for all the 12Z models to move 1000 miles east and weenies to be crushed.   Hopefully the busload of MILFs on the way to see Pickles doesn't turn around  

 

 

 

Not happening but I know you were joking. With that said many have not considered the smaller proportions? Tighter windfield mitigating weakening and augmenting impacts?

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Odds always favor ots up here

We know it can happen and it's easier to happen so the odds don't go either way really.

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS still fishy. 

We must be looking at different data. A robust examination of the 06z EPS would reveal a disturbing conclusion when comparing the mean sea level pressure of individual members.

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Okay... correction 1:    GFS does not actually strengthen Henri as it approaches the S. Coast and passes over the shelf waters S of LI. 

It is in fact, weakening, as it should, while passing the cyclone over those cold waters.

That helps engender confidence that it is physically handling the total manifold of environmental factors in handling intensity. 

However, I can aver with confidence that TC's in the weakening phase - such that the GFS's recent two cycles does so spanning some 12 hours worth - typically lift their "storm" ferocity above the land-based boundary layer.   It is very necessary for storm enthusiasts to have these moving very fast as they approach, quite literally because they do not have enough time to do that weakening prior to impacting land.  This system is moving too slowly based on climate...

It will suck GIANT ballz for deterministic weather forecasters because now we get into residuals ...like still flooding rains and tor spins.

With all due respect Mr. Typhoon Tip. We are looking at peak climatological favorability for shelf waters give or take a couple of weeks.

I am not optimistic about a slowing of the forward motion salvaging an already bad situation. Even the best of us would break down mentally when encountering untenable outcomes.

Regards

In HMNI we trust. It has been right all along. "Do not use this track map to make decisions"

Some of the model solutions being printed out for the 12z suite are wack yo. This storm is fire.

In HMNI we trust ... look how tilted Henri is definitely coming west.

46 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Not even a fantasy cane going into September on the GFS? Pretty weak first half of the season. 

But we got Henri... quality over quantity.

There is something inherently wrong with the ocean-atmospheric coupling on the GFS and many other models. They are not factoring in something either the cold stratosphere and/or warming ocean.

It's not low risk at all. For it to come towards 75W from a starting position east of Bermuda (even east of Hebert Box) is highly anomalous and portends to unusual outcomes potentially.

Push the system long and hard enough and you end up in a situation where literally every Atlantic TC makes landfall in the CONUS. We are finally at that point.