Vice-Regent

The red meat is always 10 days away. Let us not entertain these fantastical notions until we get closer.

However if it verifies then Stormtracker's day 10 threat actually is HECS material. This is the kind of anecdotal airmass that delivers the goods.

5 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

A bit more of the SE solutions then I would have hoped but still looks fairly decent. 

We be chasing another phantom ... again just for different reasons. Yall must be hurtin' after all of those historic years stuff like that doesn't cut it anymore.

It's just like Bob Chill said. We rarely time the big dogs we are reliant entirely on extended cold to get HECS.

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Also it’s cold as hell. 

Not a big fan of hell.

3 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

A huge snowstorm with temperatures in the teens followed by deep winter cold...if this Euro doesn't calm down lol

Still nothing compared to what we used to achieve in these parts. Just delivering honest words in this regard.

I am going to enjoy this one for obvious reasons. These things don't happen often.

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Mere mention of a thread killed it lol

It's dead Jim.

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

With all that shit going on at H5 on the GFS, one of these matches have gotta light. 

Facts bro

It's gonna end up like this storm most likely but it's encouraging insofar as getting the cold in deeper. Might help the borderline folks.

5 minutes ago, chubbs said:

The feedbacks impacting temperature aren't changing significantly.  Higher global temperature or ocean heat content generally means higher forcing from greenhouse gases.

There are many notable feedbacks coming online mainly associated with snowcover and sea ice. Namely the Hadley Cell circulation is not allowing the ocean surface to cool off.

People say ocean SSTa is going bonkers due to rising forcing but it's actually two-fold.

This is not a popular outlook because people want to believe that this horse can still be reigned in. The AGW menace is free to torment humanity for god knows how long no matter what we do.

5 hours ago, chubbs said:

The nina is holding surface temps down, but the overall warming trend is strong.

For sure bro. I am somewhat taken back by how many other positive feedbacks are coming online.

Just now, jayyy said:

If it gets captured early as depicted on models, sadly. We’ve seen many storms like this over the years where the evolution in the south / southeast is nearly perfect, but the trough axis isn’t or we have energy capturing our low and pulling it NW.

 

It’s going to be tough to see a low near the Carolina coastline with snow breaking out as far south as SC, just to see it get yanked NW and the mid levels get destroyed by an easterly fetch. Really hope models aren’t handling the NS correctly, but it’s hard to bank on that when every single OP run has a similar outcome. Hopefully more data by 00z tonight will help start a new and clear trend SE

Look at the H5 charts. The high pressure is clearly funneling the system into the coastline like how you would get a September 1938 gale up in here.

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

oh shut up

Just too silly.

6 minutes ago, H2O said:

I'm legit quitting doing it in the main thread.  I've opened pandoras box and too much of a bad thing(my memes) is a bad thing

No many people before you opened Pandora's box. You must play the victim card or you should become a blood thirsty savage.

Open up the severe weather thread. This is the one you have been waiting for ... just for different reasons.

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What's the point of this?

Stop people from having meltdowns over phantom storms. I hate these one's. This is big league if you miss it you will feel like sh**.

Just like January 2016 only displaced westward.

You are on drugs if you think this storm is viable for all but a very small sub-section of this community. Prove me wrong?

Don't resort to ad hominem stuff.

GFS playing games at range. Fun to look at nothing more guys.

High pressure blowtorching the coastline the positioning is all wrong for I-95 and east. This will hammer someone probably in WV or NC.

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

These 2 have been fighting since 1999

Reel yourself in man. Kind of uncalled for to post this in here and everyone knows the vax is ill-conceived or at the very least ineffectual.

Everyone I know has stopped taking it unilaterally but they already got most people early on.

Once the big players start coming onto the field they dredge up so much moisture and heat in the system.

So far we have only dealt with northern stream systems and clipper-type stuff.

1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

Giving up on a pattern thats 7+ days away is just as ignorant as locking in on a great looking pattern from the mid to long range. 

Living close to this ocean gives you perspective. That's where your SE ridge comes from and AGW shows up first in the ocean.

Just now, Wonderdog said:

Are you saying that there is no way that the ocean storm could give us a decent hit? Isn't that a robust enough of a HP to  keep the cold air supplied to us?

Any additional amping of the flow will cause it to cutoff or cut through the interior CONUS.

People got baited in by what I would describe as a faux kind of pattern where people thought we had a chance. Mountains and Maine can still cash in.

Apologies @Bob Chill I became unhinged yesterday just another grumpy morning. This morning is much better.

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

Yeah sure it's all of those "other" posters that made the quality mets leave 

It's a complex story. The idea of a meteorologist is somewhat archaic but nonetheless nostalgic.

4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

For ****ssake, BAN him. We finally get Chill back with some pretty great disco and this mewling taint trolls him. @WxUSAF 

Brother please. It was just a post in jest at least partially.

1 minute ago, HighStakes said:

The next upcoming 3 weeks of solid winter has got you a little irritated. 

The same people come out of the woodwork. Not a factor in my post actually.

You guys caught me at an unusual time. Normally I wouldn't engage this stuff and it's got me wondering that if the first thing you do after waking up is visiting the long-range thread on a weather forum that might be ominous indications of some neglect elsewhere in life. Again I don't know we cannot self regulate each other we all have the same faults. Two days man.