Henry's Weather
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Everything posted by Henry's Weather
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What's with H5 lows weakening as they reach the coast? I feel like I've seen that happen pretty frequently this year. A la nina thing?
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Seems sufficiently north too
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Potential analog?
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Thank you, I always enjoy reading these.
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Pretty cool synoptic setup at the end of gfs run. Not saying it'll happen obviously, but cool to see a powerful cut-off low traverse the continent and just sit south of ACK. Very cold storm too.
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I'd think this dateline ridge would be more helpful for us than a weak-sauce PNA downstream of a raging Aleutian low
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you could always hit the gym!
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There are a serious number of ensembles that show sub-980 mb storms through the end of the run. Hopefully the age of the saggy isobars is coming to a close.
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Talk of candlepin bowling in the general January thread... not a great sign I'd say
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I've seen lots of peeps talking about a lack of baroclinicity. Can this be amended by a cold shot alone, or do we need more, like a bombing cyclone to tighten the pressure gradient?
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On the GEFS, it seems about midmonth that the floodgates let loose for polar air. Definitely a bonkers pattern, and it's not perpetually at 384 hours. I don't give a shit, I'm all in. We'll get something good, one would think there's too many good things happening for things not to work out in some capacity.
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Why can't this northern vort dig? Would the ridge need to be stronger?
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If that southern vort gets out ahead faster on 1/12, is there still a chance to salvage this threat?
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finish the maps through new england or you'll be banned ... lol. his words, not mine
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Pull the plug @ORH_wxman
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Are we starting to lean towards a favorable Feb as well? I feel like I've seen periods of strong high latitude blocking persist longer than initially progged, and especially with some kind of stratospheric interference supporting this kind of pattern. Might be wishful thinking at this point. Slow to come, slow to leave? Though I guess the -NAO part of it arrived on time.
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Pretty happy with this so far, although as typically happens for me, I assumed the pattern would flip before it did. Maybe push back both those threats 4 days?
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I think this would be the kind of pattern to get a category 3+ nesis event in, whether miller A or B. Powder keg, quite literally.
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What happened in 08-09? Memory is fuzzy as I was quite young.
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That's a great look. I love it when the 540 line is back across the Great Lakes during winter storms.
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Transition to a blocking period is gonna be tough for the models I'd think. Perhaps this is a gross understatement haha
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I get this from an operational forecaster's standpoint, but from a snow lover's standpoint, this pattern still holds serious potential, no? Even if the models can't handle the huge artic anoms and even at risk of suppression, this has got to be a better pattern than what came before it. I do notice that large PNA ridges produce more consistently around here than periods of blocking.
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How's the SSW coming? Is it legit? I assume that affects Feb more than Jan if so.
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Coatings on car roofs, nothing much elsewhere. -
If I had to guess, I'd say this system has a good chance of missing us all, but I think the lower mid-atl has the best shot. Going to be marginal temps though.
