Henry's Weather

WPC early morning disco: ...Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic to New York and Southern New England... Major winter storm on tap for portions of the central Appalachians, the Piedmont area of the Mid-Atlantic and much of central/southeast NY and southern New England as a nor'easter develops and lifts up along the East Coast Wednesday into Thursday. The wave that crosses the southern Plains today will eject through the Mid-South tonight as a reinforcing trough brings on a negative tilt as it turns east-northeast across the southern Appalachians on Wednesday. This will promote cyclogenesis along the Carolina Coast with low pressure then lifting north and strengthening along the Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday evening before shifting east-northeast offshore and south of Long Island. Meanwhile, a cold, 1038mb high will be focused over Quebec and will be nosing south down across the interior of the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic with a rather classic cold air-damming event expected to be in place as the low center moves up east of the surface ridge and along the coast. As strong warm-air advection/isentropic ascent occurs ahead of the upstream trough along with increasingly moist Atlantic inflow over the cold air, a large swath of moderate to heavy snow is expected to develop for portions of the central Appalachians and the adjacent Piedmont areas of WV/VA/MD and PA on Wednesday with the focus west of the I-95 urban corridor, and generally west of Washington D.C. and Baltimore and just north or over Philadelphia. By Wednesday night and early Thursday the focus of heavy snow will overspread areas of southeast NY and southern New England including the New York City and Boston metropolitan areas. There has been a bit of a northerly shift in 00Z model guidance earlier on Wednesday before shifting east offshore as before. Still expect a rather strong comma-head/deformation zone impacting especially areas of central/eastern PA, southeast NY, northern NJ and southeast New England on Thursday as the low center further deepens and then begins to edge east-northeast and farther offshore. Meanwhile, down across areas of northwest SC, western NC, southwest VA, and southern and central WV, the cold air will be much more shallow by comparison with freezing rain and locally some sleet as the event ensues on Wednesday. The thermal profile supports sleet spreading up near or just west of I-95 as well from Washington D.C. to Philadelphia and toward NYC. But the threat of ice north of Philadelphia is notably lower. WPC QPF for this event is a multi-model blend weighting heavier with the 00Z ECMWF, and lesser weighting to the 00Z NAM/GFS. Overall this essentially shifts the heavy QPF focus farther west over the northern Mid-Atlantic compared to the previous forecast. Thermally, a blend of the 00Z ECMWF (which is rather warm now in the central Mid-Atlantic), 00Z GFS, and 00Z 3kmNAM was preferred. Based on this combination of moisture and thermals, the possibility for maximum storm total snowfall in the 18 to 24 inch range is from the eastern WV Panhandle, western MD and south-central to east-central PA and closer to a foot for far southeast NY and southern New England. Where freezing rain occurs, the greatest ice accretions are expected over northwest NC up through southwest to central VA and from southern into central WV where Day 1.5 ice probabilities are 30 to 40 percent for a quarter inch of ice.

has been for 5 days

I have EPS maps...lol

Anyone have EPS maps?

the only true weenies are the ones who need sleep meds while tracking.... my innoculation of choice is NyQuil

Snows to 0z Friday in eastern SNE

MUCH stronger winds on this run as well

looks like the v16 took a personal day

Maybe, I was pretty young. It was my first real hellacious widespread 2ft miller B. 'Twas epic.

I believe the initial call on the blizzard watch for Feb 2013 was 18-24+.

BOX hoisted one at the 4pm update on 2/6/13. All of the way out to Worcester I believe.

is an H5 capture still on the table?

Is there any way we can have a strengthening s/w at our longitude without it being "congrats Stowe"?

If that upstream mess wasn't there this would seriously tilt negative and perhaps intensify over where we are rather than stagnate. Maybe even close off the low. Of course, Tip was right. Still a good run, but oh so close to being better

If only we could get rid of this crap

Lots of traffic behind this, although not much different than 18z.

I'm trying to put this in perspective. Difficult after 4-ish days tracking, but even 2 inches would cover the ground for a few days with this cold. And 6 inches, which might seem disappointing right now, is the most I've seen since March 2019. Sometimes I wish models only forecasted 3 or 4 days ahead

Can we hold off on baseless doomer talk? The 18z gfs trended north and the 18z EPS trended north. Annoying.

Probably too tucked even for me... lol

21z SREFs

Just looking at storm track, most (exception GFS) is either at the BM or a hair south. Is there a point to obsessing over the specific morphology of the H5 low at this juncture? We're 3 days out. I'm not feeling ecstatic, but not exactly hyper anxious either

It really does seem like there's genuine animosity towards SNE folks on certain forums. Some want the snow to stop north of New Haven, just for kicks. Would be lovely to see the storm trend north at the last minute and pull the rug out from under a few of them. Hehe

These damned new yorkers...always trying to steal my snow

Go back to the NYC forum! Lol

Crazy that Philly is under a WSW but not Boston