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Henry's Weather

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  1. Henry's Weather
    Last semester I tried to train a predictive model on reanalysis 72 hours prior to major east-coast storms to help me create an indicator that would take in 500 mb data from NA and spit out a value indicating how likely a storm was to occur using ERA5 dataset from ECMWF. I bit off more than I could chew and eventually had to use temperature and wind data only.
  2. Henry's Weather
    I am in Paris from the 1st to the 9th, so I would bet on a major storm within that window…
  3. Henry's Weather
    16z hrrr is even colder
  4. Henry's Weather
    Flakes are surprisingly healthy in Concord
  5. Henry's Weather
    Just drove through the rain/snow line, situated exactly at exit 127 on rt 2. Here’s to it staying put
  6. Henry's Weather
    HRRR with sig. better outcome for 495 belt than previous hour. Let’s see if it keep ticking colder
  7. Henry's Weather
    Thank you thank you, based on what you just wrote, my locale (West Concord just off rt. 2) may very well be right on the r/s line. btw as an aside, is it better for cold air retention if upper levels close off in this case?
  8. Henry's Weather
    In english, are you are saying that the antecedent mass might be colder than modeled and that the upper-air structure is an unclear signal for cold air mass retention?
  9. Henry's Weather
    These SOBs… “Saturday at the earliest”
  10. Henry's Weather
    Someone should start a threat-specific thread
  11. Henry's Weather
    31-3 at the half
  12. Henry's Weather
    Muted sun, orange leaves, a Pats routing… nothing like these weekends
  13. Henry's Weather
    Pea-sized hail in West Concord. Low-level lapse rates are cool
  14. Henry's Weather
    That’s what he said
  15. Henry's Weather
    Saw a baby on one of my runs a few weeks ago
  16. Henry's Weather
    My pumpkins need this rain (and subsequent cool stretch). My jack-o-lanterns are dropping all their female flowers pre-bloom due to heat stress, and seeing as we are coming up on Aug, time is ticking… Sugar baby watermelons though, doing just fine
  17. Henry's Weather
    The SPC seems to not understand severe season in the Northeast. I think 8/10 of these slight risks would have been better designated as marginal
  18. Henry's Weather
    Oh you think so low of me…
  19. Henry's Weather
    True that
  20. Henry's Weather
    Weird to see a Miller A severe threat
  21. Henry's Weather
    Morning convection is a good indicator for afternoon severe? @weatherwiz
  22. Henry's Weather
    This reads like poetry
  23. Henry's Weather
    Seems exceedingly low on 18z given difference from 12 (more positive tilt/suppression on early returns)
  24. Henry's Weather
    Fitbit tells me I burned 6300 calories today by shoveling my house, running through the snow to gf’s house, and shoveling her house. Ah, to be young! (Which I am) Although I seem to lack that sort of energy whenever it isn’t snowing. Thats the mark of a true weenie
  25. Henry's Weather
    4 sigma on a day 6 ensemble run… nuts
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