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Henry's Weather

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Everything posted by Henry's Weather

  1. There isn’t the same disruption/collosus gravity as the big ones, but I love a good 4-8 storm or 3-6. The big ones take a huge emotional toll that doesn’t always pay off. The hard thing is that we never get those 3-6 deals anymore. It’s all coastals now
  2. New NAM certainly has a slightly better orientation and more time to come up the coast. Verbatim will still miss
  3. I’m not necessarily opposed to issuing alerts about high-potential systems far in advance. I’m sure it wasn’t intended to be similar in kind to the NWS’s old blizzard watches. No clue if this guy sucks or whatever, but I feel like the idea is fine
  4. The solution to these terrible disappointments is to literally mot care about OP runs outside of 100 hrs. If those depictions had no emotional resonance, we wouldn’t be experiencing this disappointment, bc the ens means were always potentially promising but not honking “storm!!”
  5. Ah, so traffic upstream is why no matter how far north the storm initially gets, it always gets shunted east. A clean phase would maximize latitude then?
  6. Is it accurate say that our “best gains” may come from pushing that confluence over Newfoundland NW?
  7. 06z GEFS, hour 114 (!!!). post-mortems about a storm 4-5 days out with 30% of the ensemble envelope being a massive hit is insane to me. Trends are trends, but we have about 2.5 more days for meaningful trending to occur.
  8. The entire continent of Europe has decided this is the weekend to search for Amelia Earhart
  9. Let’s just get the pieces on the board, think we have another 36 hours before our nrn stream piece is entirely turf, not surf
  10. No, not outside of a competent golfer’s swinging distance. Let’s hope God deploys prime Tiger this fine week-end
  11. Hear hear, maybe lets get DeepMind to build a superior AI weather prediction machine, since it has trounced all competition in the fields of chess and go. I trust Demis Hassabis with my life (and my social credit score if it comes down with it). Those brits sure know how to make a computer do their bidding, even if they euthanized Alan Turing because of that skill
  12. We await EPS, not the shift we wanted from Europe’s flagship numerical weather prediction model
  13. It’s easy to confuse disappointment (true dopamine reward vs. expected reward) with real information
  14. If I had to bet real money, I bet it’ll essentially hold serve, with maybe a 50 mile buffer each direction. We will see, because the venn diagram for restfulness and weenie-dom is comprised of two separate circles
  15. God, how the hell are we supposed to sleep? I get that we have exactly zero control over the outcome, but why do our bodies have to force us to bear witness??
  16. … I’m just kidding, I’m as guilty of that as the next
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