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Henry's Weather

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Everything posted by Henry's Weather

  1. I think I am coming to terms with likely being in between the best zones - I’ll take a 16” anyday
  2. For big dogs SNE-wide, I have learned over the years to want H5 centers to track closer to ACK. I don’t like, and haven’t really liked frankly, these H5 progressions right over BM. Not a met, but my 2 cents
  3. Even given a slip east, 495 may receive a deform, but I don’t buy an inside benchmark track yet - need more consistency
  4. I’m not confident this doesn’t slip east - spider senses are acting up, been here before
  5. Cmc holds serve, shows a strong deformation signature
  6. Undeniable east ticks over past 4 runs on GFS. Should not minimize this fact. Would rather be in Taunton than in Worcester
  7. Those with good memories - how does the guidance for this storm compare with Jan 2022?
  8. When QPF gets better, we will rarely post upper-levels…
  9. Those estimated ratios are crazy… given QPF, probably want to shave off roughly 15% of forecasted totals
  10. Thinking that if this one doesn’t compare to Nemo and 2015 and the rest, it’ll be because if early occlusion
  11. S/w also closes off earlier. Think this may be more LBSW
  12. If we can slightly delay maturation, would be good. May come at the price of a tick east
  13. 18z NAM has better antecedent kink but whole axis is more positive. Curious to see how it plays out
  14. CNE peeps are silently worried due to this run. For canonical status I think we want this H5 closure to be 50-75 miles further north. Don’t really want the stall to be east of Cape May. LI stalls are preferred. A few ways to get this - stronger omega blocking, further north 50/50 low… my expertise runs out here
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