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Henry's Weather

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  1. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-1-3-2021 Groundhog’s day 2021 is another strong analog (omega block, no +PNA, similar s/w track)
  2. Any insight into 500 mb heights over Miami? Forgetting your rule of thumb
  3. If I recall, there was a disputed 31” report @40/70 Benchmark
  4. Yes, the omega block/exiting 50/50 low combo matches well
  5. Any ideas about best analogs? After a brief search, best I could find at H5 is ‘78 and Jan 2015, not trying to be a weenie. 1978 was a more potent s/w and antecendent was colder, and 2015 didn’t feature an omega block. But Jan 2011 was much more miller b ish, 2013 was much tigher with the s/w trajectory, as was Jan 22
  6. I seem to recall this threat being on life support roughly 30 hours ago… never throw in the towel until 72 hrs out. My wishlist from two days ago came mostly true
  7. These huge pressure gradient setups seem to be banded
  8. Beautiful structure. The storm resembles a buzz saw with the tight, perfectly circular isobars
  9. Thus far 18z NAM has shifted everything west (24hr out), probably a good thing
  10. Ridge is a little more amped (might be due to closer in = more consolidation, not necessarily change in signal), but check out the difference in strength and orientation of 50/50 low. Undeniable, allows heights to build antecedent to s/w which fixes the trough axis. If this hits, it’ll have to be bc of prior SWFE event getting TF outta the way
  11. We weenies worship ICONs so that they will bring us snow. Muslim-type weenies are the type that are more opposed to looking at a depiction of the most high (Kuchie)
  12. I have been fundamentally indifferent since the great disappointment of Groundhog’s day 2021 - 3” of slop in Somerville, 15” four miles away in Winchester. Was gutted.
  13. Personally dreading the melt - I have a lot of dog poop to collect
  14. Check out how much more robust the omega block is on the GFS - I think that is a main player. GTFO confluence and let that ridge hike
  15. 00z vs. 18z GFS (grain of salt, amateur analysis) confluence in 50/50 region trended weaker but what was far more impactful was the speed of the kicker (faster) and the decreased amplitude of ridging preceding the s/w.
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