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Henry's Weather

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  1. Henry's Weather
    CNE peeps are silently worried due to this run. For canonical status I think we want this H5 closure to be 50-75 miles further north. Don’t really want the stall to be east of Cape May. LI stalls are preferred. A few ways to get this - stronger omega blocking, further north 50/50 low… my expertise runs out here
  2. Henry's Weather
    3k will probably be even more amped
  3. Henry's Weather
    Thought there was more runway for this run, would like this 50-75 miles north
  4. Henry's Weather
    Deepens 18 mb in 6 hours between 36 and 42
  5. Henry's Weather
    https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-1-3-2021 Groundhog’s day 2021 is another strong analog (omega block, no +PNA, similar s/w track)
  6. Henry's Weather
    Any insight into 500 mb heights over Miami? Forgetting your rule of thumb
  7. Henry's Weather
    Resemblance
  8. Henry's Weather
    If I recall, there was a disputed 31” report @40/70 Benchmark
  9. Henry's Weather
    Yes, the omega block/exiting 50/50 low combo matches well
  10. Henry's Weather
    Any ideas about best analogs? After a brief search, best I could find at H5 is ‘78 and Jan 2015, not trying to be a weenie. 1978 was a more potent s/w and antecendent was colder, and 2015 didn’t feature an omega block. But Jan 2011 was much more miller b ish, 2013 was much tigher with the s/w trajectory, as was Jan 22
  11. Henry's Weather
    I seem to recall this threat being on life support roughly 30 hours ago… never throw in the towel until 72 hrs out. My wishlist from two days ago came mostly true
  12. Henry's Weather
    These huge pressure gradient setups seem to be banded
  13. Henry's Weather
    Nuts that it’s 66 hours out
  14. Henry's Weather
    Icon will crush
  15. Henry's Weather
    Beautiful structure. The storm resembles a buzz saw with the tight, perfectly circular isobars
  16. Henry's Weather
    Antecedent heights are higher
  17. Henry's Weather
    Thus far 18z NAM has shifted everything west (24hr out), probably a good thing
  18. Henry's Weather
    March 2017 was Stella
  19. Henry's Weather
    Crap thermals
  20. Henry's Weather
    Ridge is a little more amped (might be due to closer in = more consolidation, not necessarily change in signal), but check out the difference in strength and orientation of 50/50 low. Undeniable, allows heights to build antecedent to s/w which fixes the trough axis. If this hits, it’ll have to be bc of prior SWFE event getting TF outta the way
  21. Henry's Weather
    We weenies worship ICONs so that they will bring us snow. Muslim-type weenies are the type that are more opposed to looking at a depiction of the most high (Kuchie)
  22. Henry's Weather
    I have been fundamentally indifferent since the great disappointment of Groundhog’s day 2021 - 3” of slop in Somerville, 15” four miles away in Winchester. Was gutted.
  23. Henry's Weather
    Personally dreading the melt - I have a lot of dog poop to collect
  24. Henry's Weather
    Shots fired
  25. Henry's Weather
    Check out how much more robust the omega block is on the GFS - I think that is a main player. GTFO confluence and let that ridge hike
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