00z vs. 18z GFS (grain of salt, amateur analysis)
confluence in 50/50 region trended weaker but what was far more impactful was the speed of the kicker (faster) and the decreased amplitude of ridging preceding the s/w.
Wishlist over next 48 hours:
Stronger omega block, N trend confluence, slower/weaker kicker, stronger ridge centered over ID.
Giving this one a 20% of hitting
On the bright side, a miss will give crews a chance to do more clean-up. Champagne problems but I don’t like having to run around a parking lot in circles like a lunatic
Gun to my head, I think this hits us. I think majority on the forum agree (not that it actually matters). We’ve seen too many of these shift NW incrementally