CheeselandSkies

5 hours ago, andyhb said:

Also I get the feeling several of those F4+ tornadoes might be downgraded on the current EF-scale, although Fujita and co. surveyed this thing themselves.

While certainly featuring an inordinate number of very intense tornadoes, I agree the '74 outbreak was probably not as far ahead of its 2011 cousin in terms of tornado intensity as the official (E)F3-5 counts would indicate. Many of the violent tornadoes in the 2011 event, including several EF4s, did notably more intense damage across a greater portion of their path lengths than all but a few of the official F5s (particularly Brandenburg and Guin) in 1974.

The only thing that in my mind keeps the 2011 event from being unquestionably worse than 1974 is the lack of coverage of violent tornadoes further north into KY/IN/OH. It was much worse for Alabama, however with the morning QLCS spawning a large outbreak in and of itself.

To me, the ultimate outbreak would combine the coverage of the 1974 Super Outbreak (Dixie Alley through OH Valley into southern Lakes) with the concentrated tornadic violence that was visited on the 1st and 3rd of those regions in 2011 and on Palm Sunday 1965, respectively.

Say, -EPO, where abouts are you (general area is fine if you don't want to say exactly). You've mentioned in several posts your disdain for a northeast wind, so I'm guessing on one of the Lakes?

1 hour ago, andyhb said:

We turn the calendar to April and a massive -NAO shows up. Oy f***ing vey.

I hear ya, but still plenty nice out here and will be through the next week. Just a little quieter than I like to see in spring. At least it's not snowing!

Hey, at least you can chase some high-based, pretty hailers this evening. If I was local I'd be all over that setup, but I'm not driving from WI to western OK for it even if I were on vacation!

Apparently, roughly where Toledo is?

Just now, NegativeEPO said:

I'm guessing you meant +PNA.

a +PNA wouldn't be the worst to be honest. Sure, it would suck for severe weather, but you can still get some pretty warm temps east at times even with a +PNA. It's a -NAO that scares me much more. If a -NAO locks in, we're ****ed.

Nope.

Post #266. "...PNA appears to be going back negative..."

https://talkweather.com/index.php?threads/severe-weather-2019.1149/page-14

Certainly interesting seeing the vastly conflicting opinions in here...

* Someone on another forum even says it looks like we are going into a -PNA. 

Now we need to see some more storms, not a dry torch like 2012 (although that one began before the end of March).

7 hours ago, madwx said:

Yeah, there were a couple of very vivid lightning strikes that hit the radio towers on the SW side of town.  Probably tops most of the lightning I saw last year

Dang, if I had been at my place I would have been a lot closer to those.

Can't remember the last time I saw a thunderstorm. Probably was sometime in October 2018. Missed out on any thundersnow over the winter.

some thunderstorms inbound to S Wisconsin and Illinois,  will be nice to hear a couple rumbles
 

6 hours ago, andyhb said:

Well that 12z Euro run was a disaster to say the least.

How so? Looks like it ends (at least on Pivotal at 240H) with a trough west/ridge east.

Reminds me a bit of the late March 2015 setup that produced the EF2 in Moore, when conditions were expected to be generally unfavorable for tornado formation (just a blue box in effect).

3 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Looks like a chance of thunderstorms,not really exciting tho from a weak system Sunday into Monday.GFS has even backed down this afternoon with any wind/ hail.

Next system for the Valley should be towards the end of the month still  and the next should be into week one of April

Beyond this we should see what happens with the MJO.The Euro now shows the MJO going now into phase 6 as it has been seeing destructive interference from the ENSO,though weak signals into the COD.So far it still looks like the MJO will be going into phase 7& 8 into the first of April.The Valley shortly after this time frame is starting to get/or is into peak severe season.So all eyes should be watching how amped the MJO gets into the IO and if it stays strong.

Can you give a little bit of background for what it means for CONUS severe weather which phase the MJO is in? Which phases are favorable and which are not?

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

We've graduated to Predictability too low. Euro is not as into it. Either has moisture issues or positive tilt. I can understand hesitating there especially day 7. Overall North America pattern is a little flaky too. Just as well we can watch a bunch of basketball before chasing.

Yeah, around 10 days ago I thought the pattern was gonna become more conducive quicker, but I have to remind myself there's still 9 days of March, and our morning temperature in the upper 30s today is actually slightly above normal.

13 minutes ago, NegativeEPO said:

Long range GFS looks absolutely miserable for pretty much everyone. That Alaskan ridge might be a permanent feature thanks to melting sea ice and warming Pacific waters.

... as long as I'm not trying to drive in a kitchen sink of winter precip on April 14 like last year...

Evidently SPC was throwing out the GFS when they put "potential too low" for next Thursday. It has been steady with a decent severe setup somewhere in the Plains in that timeframe for several runs now. That should at least warrant a "predictability too low" even if they aren't confident enough in magnitude/placement to delineate a 15% risk area.

WI-511 site says 16/60 is closed at the bridge going out of Columbus eastbound, but no closure on 73 at this time.

1 hour ago, Geoboy645 said:

Just drove around the area a bit. Water is the highest since 2008, it's even higher than last august's flooding. No local road closures yet but wouldn't be surprised if we get some in the morning.We are so screwed if we get any major rain event at all this spring. These conditions are very similar to the antecedent conditions before 08.

Apparently there is now significant flooding in Fond du Lac, Lodi and Darlington.

With the nature of the storm mode we had today, and lack of the usual wrenches like coastal convection or upscale growth/cell interference... I have a feeling we were just a few more degrees in the dewpoint/a couple hundred more j/kg in the lowest 3km removed from multiple events the caliber of Beauregard-Smith's Station.

My bad, I hadn't looked at the CC for awhile. Goodness.

Still, they should then change the "radar indicated rotation" to "radar confirmed tornado."

It may or may not be accurate, but I wish they wouldn't use the "large and extremely dangerous" wording without visual confirmation of such, or at the very least a couplet and TDS that supports it. The generic "radar indicated rotation" is not enough.

Numerous road closures in southern Wisconsin due to flooding, including some not too far from you, Geoboy. SR-44 between Marcellon and Dalton, and SR-68 between Fox Lake and Waupun.

Quote

The state system is experiencing flooding as a result of spring thaw, heavy snow this winter, and rain in some areas of the state. There is a growing list of highway closures and restrictions that is changing hourly. We remind carriers/drivers to check 511 hourly as conditions are changing that quickly. Local road closures and restrictions are not in the 511 system and drivers are reminded to follow local system closures or posted restrictions.

This day resembles several infamous days such as 4/3/74 and 11/10/02 in the area threatened. Obviously today was much more conditional and probably won't have has much coverage of significant severe (otherwise it would have been a high risk with PDS watches in effect), but certainly the potential for several sig tors from Alabama to IN/OH.

Dear atmosphere,

If we're going to have severe weather events, could you please at least make it a clear-cut high risk, PDS day? When was the last time there was one of those in Dixie? 4/28/14? The Plains? 4/14/12? OH Valley? 3/2/12? Enough with these conditionally nasty days, some of which underperform like last Saturday and some of which produce something like 3/3 or today?

Sincerely,

The entire U.S. weather enterprise

Was NOT expecting to see the sun today. Forecast high might have been too low.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

7 hours ago, Indystorm said:

Yes, I think the April 11, 1965 Palm Sunday tornadoes in IN had a positive tilt trough.  Supposed to get  near 70 here in IN this Thursday. Current CAMS are concerning.

Add the 06Z HRRR to the chorus. Has a couple strong supercells going over IN as early as 17Z tomorrow. It oversold 2/23 and last Saturday a bit (did pretty well with 3/3). I haven't really paid much attention to the HRWs before, but I might have to start.