CheeselandSkies

2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The Euro has something on the 12th.

Wicked ice storm for the WI/IL line and southern lower MI and probably some severe with that convection in the warm sector. I'd take that.

1,090 and no high risk. I'm not really seeing anything to flip us back to more sustained high-end tornado activity like was seen in some years such as 2003, '04, '08 and '11 (although, a neutral PDO and no big honking NE Pacific ridge forcing eastern troughing and keeping the central CONUS cold through April and into May after a mild DJF to piss off the snow lovers would help). Also guessing SPC will be somewhat gun-shy after the seeming slam-dunk of last May 20.

Could we at least get some winter severe out of that pattern? I mentioned 12/1/18 in another thread just now. 1/2008 featured a Midwest tornado outbreak that would be prolific for any time of the year.

4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

tl;dr... zzzzz for now.

OT but I was just looking at your signature and scratching my head, wondering how Illinois had more tornadoes in that dumpster fire of a 2018 season than this year. Then I remembered...December 1st. 2013 (November 17th) and 2016 (March 15th, June 22nd) are also further down than I'd have thought. No surprise 2011 and 2015 are tops.

On 12/28/2019 at 11:23 AM, fluoronium said:

("Morch" 2012)

 

...an 84 °F (29 °C) high at Madison, Wisconsin in early March was 43 °F (24 °C) above average and followed an overnight low of 60 °F, 35 degrees above normal^[16] the daily high being more than seven standard deviations above the mean. The absolute temperature and departure statistically would be equivalent to a mid-July high at that station in excess of 125 °F or more; the highest temperature recorded there was 107° at least once during the heat waves of the middle 1930s

 

 

You'd think we could have eked an early season tornado outbreak or two out of that (other than the one on the 2nd which was well to our south/east), but it was already a bone dry heat devoid of storms, a harbinger of the rest of the spring/summer.

Near normal temps but highest snowfall anomaly? I'll take it. Normal winter temps are cold enough to snow in Wisconsin. It doesn't need to be in the teens, single digits or below. Now it needs to verify.

"Annoying" seems like the best way to sum up most of the upper Midwest's weather this decade. Aughts and '90s (although my perception of the latter may be somewhat muddied since I was a kid) were overall more active and impactful for both winter and severe. Ready to turn the corner to 2020.

I was expecting to track at least 5 or 6 of these on radar on 5/20...

Very much reminds me of the 2014 Vilonia, AR cell in reflectivity structure and persistence. Fortunately at this time its peak strength appears to be occurring in the Louisiana rurals NE of DeRidder. It may maintain or re-cycle before Alexandria, though.

It's the 10th anniversary of the upper Midwest winter storm of December 8-9, 2009. One of the few single-storm double-digit snowfall total events for MBY I can recall in my adult life, and especially one of the few such events occurring before Christmas. It was true heart-attack snow, the consistency of wet cement. Impossible to run in, brought down a few big tree limbs, and caused any single-stage snowblower to bog down, even the big one attached to the garden tractor. Would have been great for making snowballs, snowmen/forts/other snow sculptures, though.

On 12/2/2019 at 1:22 PM, buckeye said:

So wxbell revised their winter forecast to go slightly colder in Dec and significantly colder in Feb.   Main reasoning is an almost exact match to 2013/14, (I can literally hear the drool hitting the floor in here), and  2002/03 SST.    Of course the chaos factor always seems to b*tch slap down even the best matching analogs.  

Winter forecasts are all over the place this year.  Usually you have a common thread with a few outliers, but this year I've seen forecasts that are total opposites of each other, (especially in month to month breakdowns).   Should be interesting to see the winners and losers come April.

I realize this won't be a popular opinion on this forum, but the winter of 2013-14 was a nightmare for me. Far too cold for too long, with too many nuisance/nickel-and-dime snowfalls. Having to brush/scrape my car off in the single digits or less at 2:30 AM for work at 3 AM for about 10 weeks straight got real old. That was after in the shower because my apartment heater couldn't keep up with that depth of cold, even running 24/7 which sent my power bills through the roof. Give me a relatively mild (5 degrees either side of 30) winter with a double-digit crusher or two.

12 minutes ago, madwx said:

ORD already gusted to 61 mph

Trees starting to toss a bit on the west side. 7 AM ob at DCRA was only 8 MPH but gusting to 21.

Is no one going to use my thread? Seems to me this system and the one on its heels deserve their own.

Didn't see a separate thread for this week's fun so here goes.

First round looks like cold rain for S. WI. Heavy snow to the north/west, severe chances and strongest synoptic winds to the south. Par for the course for us for several years with these powerhouse systems.

Despite that tempting probability map...I get the feeling last 12/1 this is not.

Looking further ahead on the GFS, Saturday might be doable...which is ironic since 12/1/18 was also a Saturday.

9 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

That gradient on the south side there could be interesting. I might get 2 inches while Portage gets 8.

I'll take that...would rather not have to deal with heavy snow for my planned Thanksgiving drive to Kenosha.

Also, it always feels uber weird getting missed to the SOUTH in early/late winter season snow events...looks like that might be the case for the Twin Cities area again.

I react "sad" now, but if it was anything like that in Madison I probably enjoyed it greatly as a 3-4 year old, although I don't remember. If you do the math, that means I'm 33 now. Christ, when did I get old?

Just now, Geoboy645 said:

Got about 4" or so here total. Add that to the 3" I  got monday night and I am already at 7" for the year. Hopefully we can keep it up most of the winter. I'd gladly take such an early start for an early end over what's been going on the last 2 years.

I'm with you...but now watch it snow in May of 2020.

10 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Nice to see an over-achiever there. 

Snow is beginning to stick to paved areas here as well, as we've dropped to 30.  Closing in on an inch on non-paved areas.  Flakes are larger now.  The first 4hrs had very fine flakes.

This happened with at least two of southern WI's would-be big dogs last winter, leading to lower than expected totals. Ironically for us we saw big fluffly flakes right at the start of this event, but they were melting on contact with the pavement at first.

A couple from outside of work this morning:

October Snow 2019 1 by Andy, on Flickr

October Snow 2019 2 by Andy, on Flickr

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The 00z GFS is really close to being a Halloween freakshow.  As is, it's an impressively deepening storm. 

But if the northern energy drops in a little sooner...

Argh. Deepens way too far to the east of us compared to the 06Z 10/20 run. Just raw crappiness, no fun weather for the north-central Midwest (WI/N. IL/E. IA/E. MN).

17 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Like a 30 mb drop in 12 hours.  

Seems likely to verify

Proper inland hurricane right there! Been a while since the last one that actually delivered the trifecta of significant impacts - svr, winter and synoptic wind. We'll see...

This is already way more significant than the May high risk.

If I recall, it happened with the wave that became Irma two years ago, but that wasn't quite as deep into Africa when NHC first mentioned it.

As per comments above on the active pattern over equatorial Africa, this is the first time I recall the NHC calling attention to a wave actually still over land in Africa, although I'll admit I don't look at this graphic every day.  Do others recall seeing a wave over Africa being evaluated like this?  NHC has a 70% chance of formation over the next 5 days, which is also quite high for a system that is over land.