CheeselandSkies

Leaving work at noon, my car was mostly encased in ice, however it broke apart fairly easily with the scraper. We're at 31 degrees. The trees are pretty well coated.

 

MKX's forecast for Madison tonight!

Quote

Freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet. Some thunder is also possible. Patchy fog before 7pm. Low around 26. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.2 of an inch possible. Little or no sleet accumulation expected.

Let's keep the streak of cold seasons (November-March) with at least one thunder event going!

3 hours ago, buckeye said:

...

To this day, I still don't understand my enjoyment for snow.   I don't ski, I hate shoveling or snow blowing, I don't have little kids to take sledding, I don't make money off of snow, (in fact it stops us from working), and of course the heating bills suck.   YET, I find myself constantly in search for the next snow storm......why?  Until I can answer that question I will accept that I am the freak, not everyone else.

Now go have a fricken beer.

Very well said. I am here mostly for severe tracking and find cold/snow to be a necessary thing to be endured as part of living here...but even I can appreciate the aesthetics of snow. Bare frozen mud is ugly!

 

Another quick video during the last, intense burst. The heavy stuff has moved on for now. If I didn't know better, I'd say these were summer thunderstorms on radar!

 

 

Quick video from a few minutes ago:

 

27 minutes ago, madwx said:

Starting as freezing rain in Madison.  Will be interesting to see what happens under the heavier returns moving in 

A few minutes ago, it started spitting widely spaced but large snowflakes on the southwest side between Whitney & Gammon. Now hearing the sound of sleet/ice pellets hitting the window.

These are not colors I expect to see on the radar during a winter precip event...

Some areas of near 50 dbz returns headed my way. Not used to seeing that with winter precip events.

MKX has WWA out for freezing rain tomorrow night into Wednesday morning, with slightly more significant icing event possible starting Wednesday night,

1 minute ago, andyhb said:

But one trough isn’t really a way to judge a whole season’s potential, especially one that requires phasing in order to reach any sort of potential. All you can really ask for at this range is a hint at a good large scale regime, hence my post. Obviously some of 2015’s setups didn’t reach their ceilings, but at least there were troughs/enhanced precip in peak season, which is more than can be said for last year in particular.

Oh most definitely, I'm just seeing 1988 and 2012 comparisons pop up in other threads as well and getting antsy, especially coming off this #Polarpocalypse.

Not sure where those are coming from though since as you pointed out, the central CONUS has already been much wetter than the winter of 2011-12.

One big difference is that winter of 2011-12 was very mild and dry with very little if any snowpack when March rolled around, which gave us a head start on the drought. This time the Midwest actually has a respectable snowpack built up, although we will lose some of that this weekend, it looks like the warm-up to above freezing will not last long (at least for southern WI).

8 hours ago, andyhb said:

This is one of the stronger signals I've seen in recent years from the seasonal guidance (the other being 2015) for above normal precipitation in the Plains during the main severe/chasing season. There wasn't much reason for optimism last year given the near across the board signalling for dryness /well above normal temps heading into spring + the ENSO/tropical forcing regime we were in, but it definitely seems to be different at least on a larger scale. There is a lack of drought across most of the states east of the Continental Divide right now.

California getting persistent stormy patterns with multiple heavy precip events is one of the changes from recent years too.

True, but a lot of things still have to go right. I read on another forum that forecast trough evolution was trending less favorable for severe wx next week, despite the extreme temperature swings we will see. Still plenty of room for things to change, though.

However in 2015 a lot of setups didn't hit their ceiling (May 16 being the most notable example) due to early initiation/junk convection. 2016 (apart from Katie/Wynnewood/Sulphur, Dodge City & Chapman) and 2017 panned out in a similar fashion.

I'm feeling something I've not felt in five years (1/2014)...there's a definite chill to the air in my apartment as, after doing well at the outset, my electric heating unit is now struggling to keep up with the cold permeating the walls of the building. I'm glad I kept my long johns on, and I'll be breaking out an extra blanket tonight.

Thank goodness this cold blast, as intense as it is, won't last for weeks on end like that one did. My power bills were astronomical that winter.

I find it amusing that the CPC hazards outlook has us in much below normal temps for 2/1-2/2, when this deep freeze will actually be breaking.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

Well, survived the first leg of this arctic blast. At 2:45 AM my car sputtered, whined and groaned but did eventually start. The belt screamed like a banshee for about 30 seconds and then went quiet (it always squeaks at least a little on startup any time it's below about 40 degrees, my previous car did that too).

Now we'll see if I can get home today and then back in tomorrow morning. Not going outside for any other reason until at least noon tomorrow (it'll still suck then, but will no longer be at such dangerous wind chill extremes).

16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Let me just put this right here...

Ugh. Chilly rain (although I'm sure it will actually feel great after the next 48 hours) and probably not quite warm/moist enough in the warm sector for chase-worthy severe.

GFS actually does build some CAPE though so we'll wait and see. In any event, some areas could see thunderstorms less than a week after -50 wind chills. That's nothing short of insane.

20 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

End one work week at 20-30 below start the next work week at 50 to 60 above.  You'd think there'd be some kind of storm mixed in there somewhere lol.  freakin' nuts 

Yeah what is up with these insane temperature swings without epic blizzards and or/tornado outbreaks? Temperature extremes and excessive rainfall seem to be the only types of extreme weather we can get to verify in these parts this decade.

Didn't feel *that* bad out going to work this morning and coming home, at least no worse than previous significant Arctic outbreaks in my memory such as early January, 2014. However, the next 48-60 hours is when the bottom falls out with a forecast low of -27 tonight, high of -12 tomorrow with wind chills -45 to -55, and then down to -32 Wednesday night. I am really NOT looking forward to leaving for work the next two nights/mornings (3 AM start time) and nervous about whether my car will start. I *WILL* be breaking out the long underwear.

Then there is the total mind screw of a high of 37 forecast for Saturday.

Just now, Geoboy645 said:

Yeah about that.... I may or may not have gotten 10 inches from this storm.

Well I won't begrudge you that since you missed out on a lot of the snow from the earlier storms that scraped by to the south of WI.

17 minutes ago, madwx said:

6.3" at MSN for storm total.  8.5" on the north side of the county.

Definitely on the low end of the forecast range. Had been stoked for our first double digit storm in over six years.

Just now, madwx said:

Flurries starting back up here after a period of freezing drizzle.  Steadier snow looks to be moving in from the west.  Hoping to add any amount of snow to the ~5" we have right now.

Yeah, a bit of an underwhelmer probably due to dry air issues. First winter event in a long while I was legit pumped for, too. Oh well, into the ice box we go and while the warm up next weekend will feel great after that, if it (coupled with rain) gets us back to brown bare ground after all this...

 

Because it would **** our spring? AGAIN?

Think we could easily get 10" in Madison, maybe even more than a foot with the way things are trending.  Looks like the jackpot will be just north of the area.  Snow will just be pouring down here between midnight and 6 am.

When was the last time we saw double digits from a single event? Might have been GHD I, although I was living in Milwaukee for that one. Even during the vaunted 2013-14, that was more like a 6" or less event every few days without a real big thumper that stands out.

 

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This could be the biggest hit yet for the southern 1/3 of WI. After another rather zzzzzz period in early-mid January, winter sure got real in a hurry. At least it's doing so sooner than '17-'18 did, so with any luck it won't linger into the back half of April again.

Outside my apartment building (with GoPro) as I was about to head in to work at 3 AM. We were in a lull at this time, but it ripped pretty good off and on for most of the pre-dawn hours.

35 minutes ago, madwx said:

Don't forget the engine tomorrow, which is the arctic front.  looks to bring a DAB-.5" to areas east of the Mississippi

Choo choo, mother****....