CheeselandSkies

I haven't seen it specifically mentioned in this thread yet - the Taylorville tornado has been bumped up to EF3 with a 12.7-mile path. Nothing to sneeze at in any season!

Quote

Tornado #7 - Taylorville
CHRISTIAN COUNTY

Date	12/1/2018
Time (Local)	5:01 pm - 5:25 CST
EF Rating	EF-3
Est. Peak Winds	155 mph
Path Length	12.7 miles
Max Width	1/2 mile
Injuries/Deaths	22/0
Summary: Information from emergency management indicated 34 homes severely damaged/destroyed, 66 homes with major damage, and 406 homes damaged but inhabitable. NWS EF-Scale ratings in the southside of Taylorville were EF-3 with estimated wind at 155 mph with a maximum width of 1/2 mile.

 

Not sure how much it's worth but the 06Z GFS doesn't show the Midwest getting any more snow, and in fact erodes the snowpack to nothing across IL, most of IA and the southern 2/3 of WI/MI through hour 384.

Allow me to once again express my astonishment (and slight bemusement/annoyance) that this is occurring in December and not A/M/J.

Huge TDS has persisted for at least the last 4 scans (I'm sure no "TORR"s being active is an oversight).

Looks like something you'd see in Colorado! Where were systems like this in May?

This is just a guess, but I suspect more of OK is under a tornado watch on the last day of November 2018 than ever was at any point in May 2018.

15Z HRRR has a lot more updraft helicity with cells across the Arklatex/SE OK and even into eastern Kansas overnight compared to the 12Z/13Z runs and the 12Z 3KM NAM.

Morning visible shows some breaks in the clouds across eastern OK and west-central AR. Not sure how much it matters, but widespread morning clouds/precip was mentioned as one possible limiting factor for this setup by SPC in the Day 2 and 3 outlooks issued yesterday and Wednesday.

Instability might not be as much of a problem as first thought, but as I alluded to in the other thread, NAM forecast soundings (this sample valid for 03Z tonight near Quinton, OK) show somewhat unidirectional wind profiles above 850mb. Even so, there's a sharp turn from SE to SW and very strong winds in the lowest 1KM (reflected by the SRH number).

To me the lack of turning and even slight backing above that is a red flag for storm mode/maintenance, but CAMs so far depict a pretty discrete mode, and with 1KM shear like that any organized supercell should be able to produce.

HRRR and 3KM NAM break out a lot of discrete convection over OK/TX/AR/LA tonight, but forecast updraft helicity isn't all that impressive except in isolated pockets.

Wow, 12Z NAM STP values jump up to over 3 by 03Z tonight across parts of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Between terrain/trees and darkness, this is a bad combination for residents and chasers.

Can someone explain how on this forecast sounding, there is so much SRH despite the fact that the winds only gradually back with height, and in fact are depicted as pretty much unidirectional from 850 almost up to 500 mb?

Even so, hodograph looks decently curved at the low levels although a little funky higher up. Although, I have never fully wrapped my head around interpreting hodographs so I prefer to use the wind barbs on the right of the sounding to visualize the shear profile with height.

Lapse rates, while not particularly steep, don't look like an instability killer as in some other setups this year.

One of the worst years ever if you like severe.

What was initially looking like another TN Valley/Dixie event has trended more to west of the Arklatex, at least for Friday. SPC introduced a small hatched area on the updated Day 2 outlook for the possibility of very large hail in the area including the DFW metro. Isolated tornadoes are also possible anywhere from there east to the lower MS valley.

Enhanced (30% risk) for ARKLATEX into lower MS valley Friday. Slight risk for Dixie Saturday. Not an ideal setup but wouldn't sleep on an isolated impact event or two. This is the time of year when tornadoes in the South can strike any time of day, often out of a previously innocuous-looking QLCS, and people aren't as aware as they might be in the spring.

Goodness, look at that trough digging into the western US on the 12Z NAM with unfettered southerly flow off the western and central Gulf. Where was that in May?

Reporting in from Madison, WI, the cold with bare ground capital of the Midwest.

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11 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Well, the 3km NAM just made the model porn hall of fame for this area.  3" of precip, and 2ft of snow.  Obviously way overdone, but man this storm is really turning out to be something special. 

Wow I am literally right on the line of potentially not seeing a flake while 10 miles to the SE gets several inches.

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Nice screw job for scentral WI after some of the solutions a few days ago. I'm disappointed and I don't even particularly like snow. Rather get it now than in March and April.

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Wow talk about your windshield wipering...WI back in the game according to the 12Z suite after looking to get shut out at 00z last night.

2 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

This is a nice start to the best time of yr on the board. Some nice winter threats already this fall for those to hone up their winter tracking skills.  At this pace it won't be long and all of page 1 will be void of severe wx threads.  Good thing we have winter to pay the bills around here because severe wx's been on leave.

Trend SE in this time frame  is alive and well again I see for winter 8 in a row now?

Except when they start out northwest of here...

Seems the only impactful weather scentral WI can get this decade is excessive rain/flooding which doesn't get my adrenaline pumping like severe and isn't photogenic like severe and snow. It's just destructive/annoying.

Yikes, WI gets almost nothing except in the far SE according to that GFS.

I used to use Twisterdata, until I found Pivotal Weather and all other model sites went out the window...although still occasionally visit COD for the CFS.

On topic: For MBY, this November has featured too much sharp cold too early, not enough snow (although more than usual for November, the pavement and grass have never really been completely covered), not enough severe, and too much blasted Christmas hype before Thanksgiving (heck it was happening before Halloween).

This is a bona fide long track, tornadic supercell (pair of them actually). They're not even anywhere near the Enhanced risk area, either, just on the edge of the Slight.

Nah, I think they didn't use the hatched area because their confidence in a high-end tornado event has decreased.

If the EURO from late last week were to have verified, we should have been looking at at least a 15 hatch MDT if not HIGH risk by now. My how the "King" has been dethroned. Used to be it was the GFS you could always throw out for over-pumping setups in the medium range.

I'm really perplexed as to why the 3KM NAM isn't showing much stronger UH streaks late Monday afternoon into the overnight.

I first brought it up in TN Valley since that seems to be where most of the Dixie Alley posters live. Also some discussion going in Lakes/OH Valley since it looks like some threat could extend into IN/OH.