CheeselandSkies

Tornado probs slashed back to 5% at 1630Z without explanation. Marginal wind probs expanded into WI, just barely touching Madison.

8 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Looks like a do over for the last North Dakota moderate risk, plus this is a bit farther south. While this has early day convection like that day, today's morning convection is exiting the area along a warm front and should have little to no negative affect on the environment, based on timing and observational tends. 

Cautiously optimistic that there could be a few tornadoes today and possibly a strong one given the degree of instability coupled with substantial deep layer shear. Storms interacting with the outflow reinforced warm frontal boundary in western to central ND should pose the greatest supercell tornado risk. The threat for a potentially significant MCS increases tonight in the same general area. 

About time that happened at least once in 2018.

MDT risk incoming per activity loop graphic. Site says 13Z was issued 15 minutes ago but nothing else has updated.

Tube near Argyle was actually rather pretty per video. I never saw much if any clearing make it into WI ahead of those little cells on visible so not sure what they found that they liked.

Still got this teensie little tornado warned cell coming up at me. Lmao.

On 6/24/2018 at 7:29 PM, jojo762 said:

Yesterday was terrible, today is terrible, tomorrow will be terrible, and I’m sure Tuesday will find a way to fall apart across northern Illinois. Just an absolutely miserable severe season. MCS washout galore. 

Curious to see how far east the current severe storms over western KS can maintain their severe levels. 

Boy did you ever call it. Despite 3 tornado reports, all were brief and all unwarned except the last which was based on a law enforcement report.

I've forgotten what a supercell radar signature looks like.

Meanwhile we're down to marginal risk, that report was in an area that's now been cut out of even the 2% zone. SMH.

Kansas City cell looks to be producing. That was supposed to be our storm!

Second tornado reported, actually occurred earlier but report came in later. In Grant County, confirmed by video according to LSR. Also unwarned.

MKX (although this second report was in ARX's CWA) has been the king of false alarm tornado warnings in marginal situations. Of course the year they decide to stop doing it is when the storms actually produce.

Always something in 2018. The fact that these teeny thundershowers are producing brief spin-ups shows that the low-level shear is there, but they couldn't have held off 3-4 more hours for some heating to take place ahead of them?

Lol brief tornado already reported in Lafayette County, WI just after 11:30. If confirmed that would be the 4th tornado in WI this year, and at least the second that's occurred without a tornado warning in effect, and I believe ALL of them have occurred without a tornado watch in effect.

For once we actually have deep layer shear and it still manages to be sloppy, lol.

Also, the WI/IL/IA slight is now for tornadoes ONLY, with 5% (marginal for wind & hail) probs across the board. Don't know if I've ever seen that in a non-tropical case before. Suspect this has to do with the mediocre forecast lapse rates.

Differential heating really apparent in obs with 78 at SQI (Sterling) compared to 71 at Rockford.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Apparently everyone else has already thrown in the towel on today?

Rain is mostly out of northern IL and southern WI, but clouds remain. Would like to see that patch of clearing in eastern Iowa expand into NW/NC IL and SW WI.

06Z 3K NAM pretty impressive with the UH southwest of the Chicago metro this evening. HRRR less so. Need these current storms to scoot out of here and let the sun do its thing. At least it's not a huge, cold outflow spewing MCS.

Tuesday slight risk axed for WI and far northern IL.

It's still 2018...

Afternoon MKX AFD one of the more ominous I have read in several years. It's not often they go into this much detail on tornado threats 3 days out. 18Z 3K another step in right direction, although the large convective complex it portrays is less than ideal for chasing, there are some nice UH streaks in there.

FWIW, forecast surface low track (along the IA/MN border or just north) is reminiscent of previous surface patterns associated with southern Wisconsin tornado events.

Quote

Main question for Tuesday afternoon and evening is amount of
instability that will return after morning convection moves off to
the east.  NAM coming into better agreement with ECMWF/GFS solution
which show sfc low over southeast MN/IA border area moving east
across central/southern WI during the evening.  Low level jet
reamplifies ahead of the surface low and focuses on northern
IL/southern WI.  Forecast soundings from both NAM and GFS show
clouds clearing in the afternoon with a rapid increase in
instability.  SBCAPE values increase to 2-3K j/kg with CWASP values
climbing to around 8 units.  Clearing will allow warm front to surge
northward into southern WI with pooling dewpoints in the mid 60s to
around 70.  0-6km bulk shear increases to around 40 knots by 00Z
with low level shear around 20kts.  LCL around 500m all pointing to
tornado potential in the late aftn/early evening with STP reach 3
near the IL border at 00Z. Slight Risk for severe definitely
appropriate risk level for southern WI at this point, with possible
upgrade in later periods towards the IL border not out of the
question.

It has been waffling back and forth (as has GFS) with instability and EHI values in the upper Midwest. 12Z was a big step in the right direction over 06Z. Seems to all hinge on what antecedent convection does, as per usual in this neck of the woods. Lapse rates are still kind of mediocre, though and in my experience that is more important than absolute CAPE values. Would like to see them be at least 7c/km throughout the column.

21 minutes ago, Quincy said:

You do realize tomorrow was upgraded to a moderate risk? Granted it's not looking like an outbreak if discrete storms, but significant  severe seems likely given the degree of shear and instability expected. 

I see where he's coming from, in that it seems like a waste of favorable moisture, low-level and deep layer shear if it's not going to produce long-lived, photogenic tornadoes especially given the dearth of setups that have featured all three conditions overlapping at all this year and most of last.

I mean, come on, it's late June and not enough cap to prevent a convective mess?

That would be something if the sequence of the year (in terms of duration/coverage/intensity) occurred after the summer solstice, but it would be in keeping with #2018ing. The signs are there, but signs don't mean much when they usually vanish within 36 hours.

Either no one wants to jinx it or no one cares since it's after the summer solstice and everyone's chasecation is over. GFS has actually been pretty consistent with late next week wanting to get frisky over the Midwest.

On 6/16/2018 at 2:55 PM, andyhb said:

10% hatched tor added for the ND-SD-MN junction. Dare I say the setup doesn't look too bad with plenty of low level moisture and backing surface winds in this vicinity. Issue may be tendency for HP transition given the lack of flow aloft and also 0-1 km shear magnitude isn't ideal especially if storms fire earlier on.

Addendum: Man is it hard to analyze setups in a season like this, motivation is at an all time low personally.

2018's atmospheric lamitude knows no bounds. Never seen a year with such consistently underperforming setups, when they can even be considered setups.

Meanwhile there was a tornado less than 40 miles from my house yesterday, not even in the marginal risk, while I was having my afternoon nap.

Such typical 2018ing. Only tornado of the day is hundreds of miles from the highest probability area and tornado watch.

Tiniest little sliver of moderate risk I think I've ever seen. Also don't believe I've ever seen the "No major population center in risk area" notation. I suppose that's a good thing...

*Sigh.* Another day of watching Iowa get rocked on radar while WI's weather is zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Lake Michigan can suck a fat one.