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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
  2. CheeselandSkies
    Yeah. I work in local news and based on our mets' forecasts I was not expecting it to snow at all yesterday beyond the early morning.
  3. CheeselandSkies
    On top of that, it snowed most of the rest of the day yesterday (which was NOT forecast). We actually set a daily record due to the ridiculous ratios. https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1ZDN338aPL/
  4. CheeselandSkies
    Just like it is in the opposite direction for warm fronts/tornadic supercells, with very rare exceptions.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    I should just go back to using the NCAR model site that was the first one I ever came across, still looks like it did in 2006 and the GFS only goes out to 192 hours.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    Looks like most of it comes from a wound up storm system that tracks from AR to the NC/SC border from FH246-270. Verbatim would support some severe weather in LA/MS on the 23rd, too.
  7. CheeselandSkies
    On nearly every chase day I've had where I've seen tornadoes, or was within striking distance of tornadoes but missed them due to being dumb, I've seen that sky when approaching/arriving in the target area.
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Unfortunate waste of potential in both the and departments. Could have done something significant with a little more antecedent cold air to pull in on the back side and different timing/better lapse rates in the warm sector.
  9. CheeselandSkies
    Yeah, those should definitely be in winter hibernation. Founding queen of Vespula germanica (German yellowjacket).
  10. CheeselandSkies
    I have Friday off. Why couldn't this system be about 6-7 hours slower?
  11. CheeselandSkies
    Oh, *bleep*. Hard pass on that look for me.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    Hey, by the last day of March 2023 I was shooting in Iowa so I'll take it.
  13. CheeselandSkies
    Bunch of people rushed out and bought snowblowers for the end of November storm; now won't use them again for 5 years.
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Here's the thing though. May not be true for other parts of the sub, but here in Wisconsin we can be solidly AA in Jan/Feb and it's still cold enough to snow. I'm firmly part of the camp who can do without the extended periods of barely cracking 10°F.
  15. CheeselandSkies
    From wind chills in the -20s today and tomorrow to...that. The phrase "averages are merely a mean of extremes" comes to mind. Between the first and second halves, this month will likely show up as close to "normal" temperature-wise around these parts when all is said and done, but it will say absolutely nothing about the conditions actually experienced on any given day.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    4 years ago OTD...
  17. CheeselandSkies
    Cassville, WI live camera:
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Been steadily snowing all morning in Madison but rates and flake sizes have been fairly run-of-the-mill. Hoping one of those heaver bands can make its way up here.
  19. CheeselandSkies
    18Z 3K NAM backed off a bit from its prior few runs, down to a "mere" 8.2" for Madison by 18Z (noon CST) Sunday. Even that would be exceptional for before December 1st. However the 15Z RAP was all in on a top-end big dog with 15.5" at the same forecast hour.
  20. CheeselandSkies
    I think you have to go all the way back to 2009 for the last true big dog (double digit totals) prior to December 10th in my memory. That one surely had some compaction involved, because it was low-ratio library paste, yet still flirted with or exceeded a foot in most parts of southern Wisconsin.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    Looks like Madison is actually riding the north edge of the double digit totals. NAM has gradually come down a bit, from 12.8" to about 10.8" However points in far southern Wisconsin such as Janesville still get in on 12-13."
  22. CheeselandSkies
    Didn't see this thread until almost a year later, but I gave you a follow.
  23. CheeselandSkies
    Mainly I'm annoyed that because of the way the trough has evolved vs. the GFS and Euro from 3 days ago, there's no outbreak threat anywhere, not even the Lower MS Valley/Dixie, to armchair chase while getting snowed in. Some of the runs were showing upper-50s dews with solid vertical depth getting pulled as far north as northern KS on Sunday or Monday, in the presence of classic meathook hodographs.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    I've noticed as of today the models have it amplifying more in the central CONUS rather than the western. This puts a kibosh on potential but it still brings the snow this weekend, at least for me and points north.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    12Z GFS rolling...
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