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CheeselandSkies

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Everything posted by CheeselandSkies

  1. CheeselandSkies
    Global model resolution isn't high enough to accurately model pressures in intense TCs. Values from the GFS and especially the EURO and UKMET shouldn't be taken verbatim.
  2. CheeselandSkies
    Where's @ldub23? How's that TS at landfall looking?
  3. CheeselandSkies
    Nice one, considering NHC doesn't report 135 MPH since they do everything in kts then round. Thus 115kt rounds to 130 MPH and 120kt to 140. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  4. CheeselandSkies
    Seems there's almost always some sort of steering breakdown/stall/sharp turn involved right around landfall that complicates the forecast. Harvey, Irma, Florence, Dorian, Sally...now Ian. Storms that just truck right on across the coast like Andrew or Charley seem to be the rare exception (Micheal being the only such case in recent years*, perhaps not coincidentally it's also the only one in their league regarding LF intensity). *Well, actually Laura and Ida too...A.K.A. the shrimp folk storms.
  5. CheeselandSkies
    Gutsy call given the bulk of the modeling remains just offshore followed by a stall and limping into the NGOM/Big Bend coast while being sheared apart. Still would have some significant impacts, no doubt and a weenie-tastic nail biter of a forecast.
  6. CheeselandSkies
    Surprise line of severe t-storms in SE WI today. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  7. CheeselandSkies
    Euro isn't a TC intensity model and its pressures shouldn't be taken verbatim. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  8. CheeselandSkies
    Some systems in recent years I'd agree with that sentiment, Hermine is not such a case based on the satellite images I saw around time of upgrade. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  9. CheeselandSkies
    Stole Hermine per 18Z BT, so now 9 is gonna get the "I," naturally.
  10. CheeselandSkies
    Looks like the eye collapsed (or at least became cloud-filled), then just re-opened again.
  11. CheeselandSkies
    Took so long this season my click finger has gotten rusty, I can barely save satellite loops fast enough.
  12. CheeselandSkies
    Ladies and gentlemen, we have what is known as "the opening of the eye."
  13. CheeselandSkies
  14. CheeselandSkies
    Not a single tornado report out of yesterday. Glad I didn't bite on the HRRR nor SPCs 10 hatch.
  15. CheeselandSkies
    Good, because he was getting desperate. I'm sure he wasn't expecting the first chaseworthy threat in any accessible basin (apparently he still can't go to Japan for the recent typhoons because of their COVID travel restrictions, which is weird because a local metal band I'm a fan of recently announced they're planning a tour of Japan for December) this season to come after September 15th.
  16. CheeselandSkies
    It's a Cat. 1. It's not a secret that Cat. 1s, even T.S.'s (heck, even open waves) are capable of catastrophic freshwater flooding, usually due to some combination of meteorological and geographic/orographic factors as is the case here. However, its existence does not "un-bust" pre/early-season forecasts of AA to hyperactive ACE totals and multiple long-tracking CV majors.
  17. CheeselandSkies
    Sounds like SPC tacitly waving the white flag on sig threat with this MD. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1797.html
  18. CheeselandSkies
    Initial TOR-warned cell died and the new development seems to want to go insta-cluster. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  19. CheeselandSkies
    Right on cue at 00Z, TOR went out for the Bloomfield storm. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
  20. CheeselandSkies
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0536.html Cells firing in far southeast Iowa with another further north, just north of I-80 NE of Des Moines. Biggest is the one between Centerville and Bloomfield. No warnings out as of yet. Some hints of rotation already per KDVN radar, but glad I sat this one out as CAM idea of initiation close to/maturing and after dark seems to be holding true.
  21. CheeselandSkies
    This is actually a remarkably Hortense-like track (both observed thus far, and forecast). Surprised I haven't really seen that name come up as a potential analog before. Also like that storm, Fiona took until past the Lesser Antilles to intensify to hurricane status.
  22. CheeselandSkies
    Here we go: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1796.html Edit: Annnnnnnnnnd expired w/o watch being issued. Edit 2: Finally went out a few minutes later.
  23. CheeselandSkies
    True.
  24. CheeselandSkies
    That's what I've said the last few times we've had highs in the 80s in early April.
  25. CheeselandSkies
    Honestly, if it was April through July or even August I'd be all over this. September Sundays are for watching football with a beer. Haven't even looked at a satellite loop (that wasn't of Fiona) today. Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
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