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cmillzz

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Everything posted by cmillzz

  1. cmillzz
    other than the Euro/EPS, seems as though there’s been an overall north trend. Didn’t the Euro have a terrible performance with the EC bomb last month? Guess we’ll see how it does this time around
  2. cmillzz
    Looking like it could be a decent hit for a large chunk of Wisconsin. May be the last one of the season.
  3. cmillzz
    Doesn't matter because it's still not going to be anything like 2018, lol.
  4. cmillzz
    This late winter/early spring has been nothing like 2018 thus far IMBY, that’s for sure.
  5. cmillzz
    Definitely a weird ass winter for the Chicago area, I’d say. Excellent cold and snow early on, then suddenly the flip switched and went from deep cold in late Jan to WAD Feb (featuring the earliest 7 day stretch of 50°+ on record) along with lowest Feb snow totals since 2017. I’d give it a low C I guess
  6. cmillzz
    Probably a compromise of some sorts. I’d love for the Euro to be correct but it’s probably a bit too far north as it seems to be an outlier atm. Palm dude may get a good hit though
  7. cmillzz
    No surprise it’s been such a warm March thus far. Classic warm mid-latitudes pattern that will continue for the foreseeable future outside of the brief St. Patrick’s day cold shot
  8. cmillzz
    as @donsutherland1 said, there's nothing to lock the trough in place, so you can toss these runs.
  9. cmillzz
    not really
  10. cmillzz
    Chicago has a shot at yet another top 10 warmest March if what Ben Noll is showing ends up transpiring (which I don’t see why it wouldn’t tbh).
  11. cmillzz
    you literally just said the warmth will finally be winning the battle in the ENSO thread, are you okay in the head?
  12. cmillzz
    why are you paying any mind to 300+ hour OP guidance in the first place? they’ve been struggling inside of 72 hours as of late, lmao
  13. cmillzz
    Wow, actually looks like 2012 at times. People should be happy as we'll finally be moving on to spring. Y'all had a great winter, no one should be complaining about this.
  14. cmillzz
    Though the Euro still has it getting up to the state line with Chicago tagging another 70 degree day. AI GFS is also further north with the warm front. Of course the back door front comes barreling through at some point in the day.
  15. cmillzz
    Oh, yeah, may just be confined to the 18th LOL. All snow threats confined to your north as well.
  16. cmillzz
    Idk about the east, but Chicago having its earliest 7 day streak of 50°+ on record is hardly "wishcasting". Don't really care about the weather anywhere else tbh, it's been very mild (and dry, up until this past week) here since mid Feb. Besides, you'll be torching for a few days this upcoming week too, so idk why you'd be skeptical of another torch brewing later on in an even more favorable pattern for sustained warmth + later in the year with a rising sun angle.
  17. cmillzz
    brrr
  18. cmillzz
    Teleconnections look completely unfavorable for a sustained below average temp regime during the second half of March though. I just think the models are completely off base here in regards to what happens after St. Patrick's Day for the Midwest especially.
  19. cmillzz
    AI GFS wasn’t terrible, and funnily enough it’s been one of the more consistent models. Seems to be fairly good at picking up long range pattern changes.
  20. cmillzz
    Still applies now. I can't ever recall seeing such inconsistency in the medium/long range, even the ensembles are struggling.
  21. cmillzz
    I had a +4.3 departure in Feb and will finish with one of the warmest first 10 days of March btw, so hardly much of a "colder trend" as of recent. Matter of fact, it's in the 60s with full sun here as I type this and will be nearing 70 Monday/Tuesday, lmao.
  22. cmillzz
    Just to give an example of the Euro's glaringly obvious cold bias/mishandling of long range patterns, here's what it was showing for 18z Thursday back on the first of the month. Newer run on the bottom, as which you can see it corrected warmer.
  23. cmillzz
    Hence why I say eastward, though I do expect some northward expansion of the ridge too. A lot of it will depend on how much existing snow cover there ends up being in the northern regions.
  24. cmillzz
    Ended up being a horrible bust like I thought (the week 2 cooling thing), and likely will be again, at least to an extent.
  25. cmillzz
    Don’t really see anything to stop the ridge from expanding eastward once we get after the equinox (and it’s already been a very warm start to March), but we’ll see. Cold shot looks short-lived and unremarkable too, especially in comparison to the unprecedented heat encompassing the desert southwest. I’m talking mainly for the Midwest though, maybe New England holds on to the cold for longer.
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