Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
426 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025
Mid to late-week, the upper level pattern will begin to change as
troughing develops over the TN Valley, and as ridging sets up from
the western Atlantic north through eastern Canada. During this time,
medium range guidance is showing a pretty good signal for a blocky
pattern to develop across the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic.
Of note, medium range deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest
the Atlantic may begin to "wake up" so to speak as we move into the
latter half of the week. While the main development region (MDR)
will be a potential candidate for tropical activity, it is also
worth noting that guidance is beginning to show a signal closer to
home for low pressure development along the frontal boundary off the
Southeast U.S. coast later in the week. As we often remind folks
this time of year, please be careful not to lock into one run of one
model, as significant run-to-run changes can be expected. At this
point, the main takeaway is to be aware of the potential. Stay tuned
for updates from the National Hurricane Center through the week
in case this risk were to increase.