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George BM

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Everything posted by George BM

  1. George BM
    The storms outran the cold front to an extent. The wind shift and following lower dewpts seem to be located near I-81 atm.
  2. George BM
    I really hope we get a pattern similar to what's being advertised by the GFS. Obvious uber-long range caveat aside, that would easily be a MOD risk worthy day from the MidAtl up into the Northeast verbatim.
  3. George BM
    Central US ridges and NW flow over the Mid-Atlantic in June = a happy weenie A happy SEVERE weenie people! Calm down.
  4. George BM
    BTW, with that watch the probs were: TOR: 20/5 WIND: 80/40 HAIL: 70/30 And just in case you're curious the first 20080604 watch had the same wind and hail probs but with 40/20 tornado probs.
  5. George BM
    This is actually the site that wasn't working for me. But now it finally started loading. But still, thank you.
  6. George BM
    Where did you retrieve this?... As I cannot seem to retrieve it from SPCs Severe Watches archive ATM.
  7. George BM
    @Kmlwx @yoda Fourteen years.
  8. George BM
    A wxdude64TM June morning.
  9. George BM
    I'll definitely become a little more intrigued for the Wed/Thurs shortwave if timing can change a bit. It's probably easier to root for a slightly faster system (late Wed) rather than a slower system (Thurs) as of now as slowing it down by 18 hours may be a bit of a tall order compared to speeding it up by 6 hours. Either trend would maximize daytime heating as you probably know.
  10. George BM
    How strong were the winds with that storm IYBY?
  11. George BM
    With 90/68 at IAD as of 12:28pm this is officially a heatwave for the location. (Third day at 90+F)
  12. George BM
    Weenifying Thursday! Forecast Discussion Thursday, June 2, 2022 2:50PM EDT Temps have continued into the lower/mid 90s with dewpts into the lower/mid 70s. This combined with moderately steep MLLRs (6.5-7.5C/km) is yielding MLCAPE of 2500-4000J/kg. Swift flow between 600-400mb of 40-50kts will lead to effective bulk-shear of similar magnitudes leading to a mix of supercells and bowing line segments. With at least moderate low-level shear in place (ESRH 100-150m2/s2) a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially with any LEWPS that may develop. Otherwise, with large DCAPE in place (1000-1500J/kg), swaths of widespread damaging winds w/ a few significant gusts potentially up to 80mph will be commonplace, particularly with any bowing segments. Large to possibly very large hail will be a threat, particularly with any supercells that form. Tornado: 5% Wind: 45%(hatched) Hail: 15% Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for Northern/central VA, most of MD, Delaware, southern PA, southern NJ and the District of Columbia until 10PM EDT Thursday, June 2, 2022. Hazards: Widespread damaging winds w/ a few significant gusts to 80 mph likely. Scattered large hail likely w/ isolated very large hail to 2” diameter possible. A tornado or two possible. Watch Probs: TOR: 20%/10% WIND: 90%/70% HAIL: 60%/40% "Forecaster": George BM
  13. George BM
    A triple H start. ETA: Happy Meteorological (Climatological) summer.
  14. George BM
    IAD at 94/66 as of 3:28pm tying the daily record set in 2011.
  15. George BM
    IAD at 93/68 as of 2:36pm.
  16. George BM
    Aaaaaaand we're back! DCA: 108F IAD: 109F BWI: 110F RIC: 110F
  17. George BM
    Now -3.
  18. George BM
    For Thursday.
  19. George BM
    I don't remember there ever being WEAs for STWarnings before last year. I believe last year was when WEAs for STWs started for 2.75"+ hail and 80+ mph winds.
  20. George BM
    Baseball sized hail (2.75"+) and 80+ mph winds.
  21. George BM
    Right where the couplet was.
  22. George BM
    In my personal experience, and emphasis on MY personal experience , yesterday had some loose similarities to May 26, 2021 (last year) and May 14, 2018. Similar to May 26, 2021 in the sense that there were two rounds of storms round one being more isolated during the mid/late afternoon and round two pushing in from an additional line of storms from the west that rolled through more areas during the evening. Similar to May 14, 2018 in the sense that the first round of storms yesterday (yes I know that May 14, 2018 had only round of storms) made for a small temp/dewpt depression resulting in a low and dark photogenic shelf cloud through much of northern VA (like on 5/14/2018).
  23. George BM
    Update: Make that 51kts (59mph) for IAD.
  24. George BM
    Yeap. That actually appears to be what motivated the warning.
  25. George BM
    IAD just gusted to 50kts (58mph).
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