Honestly I think it's better but I think you're just trained to see such outlandish stuff that it seems reasonable. Wide geographical accum maps are pretty tough to draw and somewhat pointless to an extent, but some of those areas included in 3-6" are just ridiculous.
I think it’s pretty much impossible for the jackpot not to be in the same old spots. If temps are ever an issue that will be the case 99% of the time. Lift + temps wins every time. Never for one moment believed the Euro central MD jackpot. But I will say I’d be more than happy if this verified. Definitely better than I expected three days ago.
This is super cool btw. If you did this with every 'significant' tracking--maybe storms that make it to storm mode?--would be interesting to see which results verify closest and at what points along the way.
Technically the Euro came out before storm mode, but the fact that it was percolating around the 72 hour mark clearly infiltrated the system and, well, there you go. It's all downhill from here!
Is it just me or has lake affect calm down in recent years? I remember when buffalo got like 7 feet of snow once.Is it just me or has lake affect calm down in recent years? I remember when buffalo got like 7 feet of snow once.
So I think I’m reading this wrong. Because I’m looking at the line as it curves and it bends way warmer than 0° before it falls to the ground. How are you supposed to actually read it?
Edit: I don’t know why but when I dictate these replies it pays a duplicate.Currently smoking a cigarette in my attic window like a teenager.
Maybe I’m not reading it right but the temp seems to spike between 600-700. And pretty big time too. So it just stays all snow despite that warm layer? Or what am I doing wrong?
Sure and the globals can still step back from where they are. I’m not wrong. It’s not the same solution. But it does give us a much better chance so hopefully it does continue to move that way. I’m just not very confident.
You could be absolutely right. I just think this is a very difficult setup and the models tend not to get the—very important—specifics right till close to game time. And if anything will do that faster it’s the NAM along with other mesos. People are conveniently tossing the RGEM as well too.
As I said I hope I’m wrong and I’m just bitter at this point. But I think ice is still a better bet and it’ll be tough to ward off upper level warmth.