WesternFringe

Yeah, CMC much improved with the ULL pass. Probably need even souther, but a definite improvement vs 00Z:

You keep saying that

Would be quadruple the amount of snow we have had all season in Augusta Co. I take lol

Are you okay?

The op is like one high resolution member of the ensemble at day 8. And the mean of all the members outperforms any one member at these leads.

He's more into analysis than calming weather weenie lemmings that jump off of a cliff every 200 hr op run. lol

Mexico gets more snow than most in the subforum lol

This is a good point and I agree with you, but that map also includes the 5-18" PA, upstate NY, and southern NE are getting this weekend to be fair.

Like Mappy said, go away, please, if you think it is shit the blinds.

But you compared 2 Euro runs a day apart that DO show the energy ejected more quickly east. I am confused now lol

One is faster with the lower heights moving east?

Did you miss his Hitler meeting with his generals YouTube video? Hard to top that, but this was funny af for sure!

One of my favorite parts of this sub is folks arguing about impossible hypotheticals, like giving up 5 years of snow for a March 93 redux. It’s ridiculous, so my turn. : ) No way I would give up 5 years of snow for one storm. This board melts down when we have one putrid winter. Imagine the absolute train wreck it would be in here if we failed for 5 consecutive years bc one poster made a deal with the devil like this that took!

“…looking at events for long leads with the ensemble I think it’s best to take an average of say 2 days of runs for any one discreet threat or period.” Agreed- you make many valid points, but this is the best one. My comment was more towards how many times daily I have been ‘ensembled’ mapped (NAM’d) to see exactly nothing produce from it. Also, I am at 1550’ and way further west in a predominantly cutter pattern due to the SER, so ensembles have been accordingly bullish all winter showing much better percentages than you are saying that you have seen. To no avail.

If you read LWX’s discussion, they said they had roughly half of guidance showing 30s and wintry weather and the other half showing 70s, so they split the difference and said 40s/50s. I suspect your local news station either did the same or agrees with the trend of a NW passing system that brings in warm air from the south.

We have one more window mid-month after the 3/4 hail mary, and after that I am done tracking winter weather and rooting for 70s and working my greenhouse

I know how to read them, but okay, fair point, so multiply them by .25- still missing LOTS of snow. There have been many, many times this winter I have been in the 80%+ probability zone for more than an inch and the 50% to 90% probability zone for more than 3 inches. I have 1.5” of snow this winter with another 1-2” of sleet. They never verify this winter, even when showing high probabilities. They have been egregiously useless this winter wrt snowfall, full stop.

Yeah, we are all missing 30-50” inches vs those ensemble maps verbatim this year

Futility thread is there for a reason lol eta: Not completely giving up on this storm, but I do agree the writing is on the wall most likely. Let’s see if CAPE’s/Stormchaser Chuck’s/PSU’s mid month period works out. That combo of people is like the Euro/Icon/GFS all agreeing on a snow threat, so it is probably our best chance to salvage this craphole of a winter!

We had light rain, then heavy rain, and finally sleet here NW of Staunton.

Surrounded by SLPs- it's happening!!

The big storm is only 10 (or 11) days away! This winter sucks. Lol

Got to 70 here today

11/15/22. Wet snow mixed with the rain 11/17/22. Flurries early 11/18/22. Flurries early evening 12/15/22. 1” of sleet/snow and freezing rain 12/22/22. Trace of sleet and more freezing rain 1/8/23. Trace of Sleet and freezing rain 1/11/23 Some snow mixed with rain 1/23/23 Flurries intermittent 1/26/23 afternoon flurries 1/27/23 morning flurries 2/1/23. 1.5” snow 2/12/23 0.5” sleet and snow mixing in with rain season total: 3”

Where is the eye roll emoji?