BTV about Thursday, bolded bit caught my eye:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
The main focus of the long term period remains for Thursday. All
ensemble data suggests potential for impactful weather, including
thunderstorms capable of torrential rainfall and possibly damaging
wind. The low pressure system passing to our northwest looks to be
the deepest to pass over this region during the 1979 to 2009
climatology for the July 11 - August 1 period, which suggests very
large height falls that will steepen lapse rates and produce
widespread thunderstorms that could tap into strong winds aloft. On
Thursday afternoon, heavy rain potential is shown through PWATs in
excess of 2 standard deviations above the climatological mean,
MUCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg. The deepest moisture looks to push to
our east ahead of the actual cold front, when potential for
organized thunderstorms should peak. Probabilities of moderate (1000
J/kg) to high SBCAPE (> 2000 J/kg) are greatest in Vermont based on
the most likely timing of the cold front. At the same time, the
pressure gradient over the region and uniform southwesterly flow
will produce impressive winds in the St. Lawrence Valley where the
channeling supports enhanced non-thunderstorm gusts potentially
in the 30 to 40 MPH range during the afternoon.