klw

My wife loves taking pictures of me while I am using the roof rake because of the pure joy in my expression (especially when the snow is just pelting me as it falls). If the forecast doesn't change drastically i m planning on shoveling part of the garage room and breaking out the roof rake on Sunday!

That clown map brings up bad memories of smoking virga while watching 12/92 playing out to my near south. But I can't complain after how things have been the last few weeks up here compared to SNE.

I love the gradient in Mass (near Fitchburgh?) where it goes from 5 to 25" in a matter of only a mile or two on the clown.

You can't sustain a pack in December when the inevitable Grinch comes and melts it away. I got 20 inches on the 16/17 and barely had a cover for Christmas. I currently have 24 inches in the backyard so if I can pull a foot out of this it would be my best pack that I can remember. That would be really special up here. My other last big December storm in 2020 also was washed away by rain and 60 on XMas day.

Time for the .... (I found the above in some old family photos over the weekend)

The Hurricane hunter recon plane, Boss, the Hurricane hunter recon plane!

Yesterday, I was able to work my way up to the only flat area of the yard where I know the dogs haven't trampled. 28" on the ground there. I also dug out a path to the shed where I keep all my seed starting trays.

.9 overnight brings final total to 13.0", over 90" on the season now.

12.1" 27.3 in the past week, 34.8 for the past ten days, 89.8 for the season MREAVES good luck on the recovery. I had to have two antibiotic hits after hospital spells 2 and 4 years ago. The MD told me a good rule of thumb is for each week on antibiotics to expect a month until you feel recovered. My second foot infection lead to 5 days on an IV antibiotic and a PICC line for 7 weeks. It took me a year to feel recovered. Cut yourself slack as you heal. I got lucky with snowfall tallys during the first hospital spell as it was February but it didn't snow for the whole time I was in.

12.1" and it is accumulating again. 27.3 in the past week, 34.8 for the past ten days, 89.8 for the season

2 inches new since 5am, 11.1 total

NWS Burlington @NWSBurlington · 50m [3/4 345 AM] We received reports of #thundersnow in Milton, VT and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) on the GOES-16 #satellite confirmed it! #vtwx

9.1 inches so far, snowing very heavily,

not this season

BTV comments on the rate in its new AFD: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Snow: A widespread 6-14" still looks great, with the lowest amounts near the Canadian border. Eastern slopes of the southern Greens, like Ludlow or Rochester, and parts of Essex County, New York, like Keene, Elizabethtown, and Schroon have the best chance for 11-16". This tracks with QPF values, which indicates about a 0.50"-0.75" of liquid in the valleys, and 1.00-1.50" of liquid for favorable eastern slopes. Ratios will likely be lower due to fragmentation of dendrites, but do expect a slight increase during the day as the jet weakens. On the other hand, the impact of a March sun angle will likely keep SLR values a bit lower. Combined with the winds, there could be some blowing snow early along western slopes, but by mid-morning this should subside as north winds trend towards 5 to 10 mph. Snow will continue Saturday afternoon, but warming temperatures will likely limit much accumulation and bring some improved travel conditions. Snowfall Rates: Will add a section to highlight the rates. The 12z data rolling in has some impressive numbers that haven`t been seen this winter. The time frame of heaviest snow is likely between 06z (1 AM) and 12z (7AM) Saturday. Notable is that the eastern slopes feature a greater than 50% chance of 1"/hr snowfall rates for about 6 hours, with a narrow window of 50% or greater of 2"/hr noted. Based on some high res ensembles, it seems possible that eastern slopes of the Adirondacks in Essex County, New York and parts of the southern Greens may even approach 3"/hr snowfall rates in that 06z to 12z Saturday window of time. After 12z, better forcing moves east, and we should see a decline in snowfall rates.

Do you plan on driving out to the airport at sunrise to see it verify?

So you're saying I have a chance:

I am at 77.7" for the season.

Clown map of all clown maps:

Mass folks need to call Lock It on the 12Z GFS before the next model run comes through.

BTV AFD this morning https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Snow: Overall, widespread totals of 6-14" are expected with the lowest amounts occurring along the Canadian border, and highest amounts along the southeast facing slopes of the southern Greens and Adirondacks. High snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr are expected across the region from midnight through 10 AM Saturday, and areas of blowing snow are likely along the western slopes of the Greens as well. While model QPF amounts have come up by a tenth to quarter inch, our forecast snow amounts were adjusted only slightly upward as uncertainty continues in regard to snow-to-liquid ratios given the height of the DGZ and strong vertical wind shear below it. This will likely contribute to snow crystal fragmentation during the first half of the event tonight, where we`ve kept ratios closer to 10:1. As upper low migrates overhead and the low-level jet weakens, higher snow ratios should be observed on Saturday, though the overall intensity of snowfall will be weakening.

I measured 3.0 new when I got home this evening. So 4.2 for the day. I wonder how much it was before compacting the las 8 hours.

Wow what an awful commute this morning! We started snowing about an inch per hour at home about 5:30am. I left the house at 6:30 and had 1.2 new in that time but was in a slight lull. From getting on I-89 at Exit 2 (mm 13) to exit 5 (mm 41 or so) it was snowing at least 1 inch per hour. At one point north of Randolph visibility was down to about 1/20 of a mile. After exit 5 it lightened almost immediately with almost no snow at all. There were multiple cars off the road as well

BTV's take on the system from the AFD: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 From 00Z Saturday onward is where models diverge. While there`s agreement that there will be some sort of secondary low development along the southern New England coast Friday night, the strength and position of the aforementioned surface high pressure north of the Canadian border remains in question. Where the GDPS was the outlier the past 2 days offering a stronger high and QPF suppressed across our central/southern zones and southward, the GFS has now jumped on board while the latest GDPS has trended slightly north. The ECMWF remains the most northward solution with the heaviest QPF, but it should be noted the mean of its ensemble members keep it south across central/southern New England. So what does all this mean? Well, while confidence is increasing (quite high actually) that the forecast area will receive precipitation, confidence remains low as to where the heaviest QPF will occur. The good news is that the ptype is currently looking like all snow, with the worst case scenario being some sleet mixing in across southern VT. Probabilities from blended guidance for >4" of snow are 60-70%, but for >8" it drops off to 30-40%. A snow storm with minor to moderate impacts seems likely Friday night through Saturday with our best first guess being a widespread 5-8" from north to south.

6.6 " for a total here. My dogs managed to run through 2 of the 3 measuring spots but I think the total is good.