etudiant

I would be happy to see a decent analysis of the 'divergence', which should be a piece of cake now that we have another 20+ years worth of tree rings to evaluate. I have no beef with current climate measures, the sea ice measures alone are pretty strong evidence. What is less convincing to me is the earlier stability claimed, it seems inconsistent with the historical record.

With no reflections on this paper, the credibility of all 'climate change' related documents is imho tainted at the source. The initial Mann 'hockeystick' paper in Nature glossed over that the same dendro evidence used to form the stick showed declining ring formation in the most recent era, which had been interpreted as periods of cooler weather. So that information was frog marched out of the paper, with a chart grafting modern temperature measures on the earlier tree ring data to create the 'hockeystick'. An honest presentation should have highlighted the divergence, which really produces a downward signal rather that the increase shown by the thermometer measures. Perhaps it just means tree ring data is not fit for the purpose of measuring temperatures. That in itself would be a useful, but afaik that analysis has not been done, nor have there been follow on studies to examine whether the 'divergence' has worsened or improved since the Mann Nature paper. As a former Wall Streeter, I'm pretty attuned to hard marketing. Prof Mann marketed too hard for me.

I'll know that the Federal Government accepts the reality of global warming when they refuse flood insurance for anyone not at least 10 feet above sea level. Looking at the beach front mega mansions on Long Island, that day has not yet come.

Note that as of July 27. 2020, area is only 3.959MM km **2, the lowest on record for the date and the earliest date ever for sub 4MM km**2..

Arctic ice area is lowest ever for the date, 4.082MM km**2. Area is probably a somewhat better measure of the ice level than extent..

Spot on! The Federal blank check for 'disaster relief' allows people to just ignore basic science and risk, building on unstable barrier islands as well as shore areas which should be kept free from development. Any sea level increase compounds the risk.

Does any long, long, long range model have any better skill? I'd be tempted to believe the CFS outlook simply because it is the only low ball forecast I've seen, everyone appears confident we'll have a well above average hurricane season.

The trend is not showing any indication of deceleration, rather the opposite. That suggests 2+ *C is already baked in. Indicates the 2060 global temperature will be 3-4*C above that of the 1970s.

Thank you, that is very informative. One forgets how big Africa is, lots of room for both wet and dry regions.

I'm puzzled, the prior posting by Windspeed shows much above average rainfall in the same area that this unusual amount of dust is coming from. Can someone please help explain?

Have to disagree on his management of the virus issue. He has killed the arts, education and entertainment activities in NYC with his egregious lockdown policies. Those are the economic engines of the state.. So having induced cardiac arrest, he is surprised the patient is not generating the expected income? PS Not a fan, obviously, of the shutdown, whether by Trump or Cuomo. Dreadfully bad policy which will hurt us for years to come.

Arctic ice area seems to be following about the same trend as 2016. That suggests a minimum extent around 12 MM square km , somewhere close to a record low.

The Sweden death rate is more than 3x that of its Nordic neighbors, just about that of Switzerland, but they avoided trashing their economy. Considering the misery the lockdowns have inflicted and the massive debts that we're building up because of it, the Swedish choice seems a lot more humane, despite the pain.

No obvious impact thus far. The CO2 data shows no diminution at all thus far from the current record levels See .https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

No expert, but am struck how closely the recent Arctic ice area is tracking the 2012 values. See: https://cryospherecomputing.tk May just be coincidence, but perhaps an early indication of history repeating.

Actually, there has been good progress, with the performance of the devices improving by about a factor of 10 every decade since the 1950s. Based on that trend, we should have working prototypes in another decade or so, but the effort is desultory at best. The international centerpiece of fusion is the ITER reactor in France. It was supposed to be ready by 2010, now expected to be finished by 2025, with the first real fusion experiments around 2035 - 2040. Basically a UN managed research effort, makes herding cats look easy. The problem is that cheap gas and subsidized wind/solar drained any urgency from the search for more energy, so this is run as a hobby effort, no urgency at all. I've visited the ITER site, no weekend work, single shifts, a handful of workers, lots of visiting dignitaries and probably masses of administrators behind the scenes in Geneva and elsewhere.

Not a stance that I agree with. Pension money is inherently long term oriented, they are seriously interested in this issue. I think that a frank discussion in front of a bunch of no BS money managers would be enlightening and I'm sorry the field was left to the skeptics.

Absolutely correct on the human impact, 74/75 was modest, the worst was in 2009, when 171 people died in Victoria.

A quick look at the record indicates that the 1974-75 fire season in Australia was by far the worst in terms of acreage, with over 100 million acres burned. No other year comes close. The burn to date for this season is about 15 million acres, still a huge area, but again not in the same league.

Thought the ice melt was accelerated that year by a significant storm, so it is actually somewhat a cautionary input. Combine such a storm with a really warm ocean influx, it would set dramatic new lows.

Suspect that here in the US, it won't be till Mar-a- Lago is flooded, not sure what a comparable event would be in China, but perhaps Hong Kong might serve,,,

Arson seems very far fetched, who by and for what purpose are obvious questions, plus this is a nation wide problem, too big for a bunch of fire bugs imho. What does however seem plausible is that poor range management is a major factor. Afaik, the aborigines used fire as a control tool, preventing the kind of fuel load buildup thatsupports massive fires. More recent policy has been to prevent fires more aggressively, so the vegetation has not been thinned as before. This seems quite similar to the recent California fires, likewise made more intense by the abundance of fuel resulting from an extended period without fires. That unchecked growth combined with a super hot summer is a recipe for disaster, as is now apparent.

Careful about that, that was in 2015. The Arctic ice is in continuous flux, rotating around the pole with the older ice getting dumped down the Fram Strait between Greenland and Iceland. Very little Arctic ice is permanently fixed to the shores, mainly it gradually circulates around the pole. That is why the north coast of Iceland is littered with driftwood originating in Siberia. Afaik, there is nothing like the really old (100,000 to 2,000,000 years old) ice found in Antarctica in the north polar ice. That ice is all sea ice, totally vulnerable to a warm summer melt and it is not very useful to focus on the bits that are 3-5 years old, they just reflect whether the last few summers have been warmer or colder than usual.

While that is a forecast for Jan 1-6 of 2020, not of the temperatures now, it is pretty chilly already, with Fairbanks around 25 below zero F. Quite a swing from earlier.

I think we're basically in violent agreement, but really all you need to do is to fly over the western US. The landscape is blighted as far as the eye can see from 35000 feet by 1000 foot diameter irrigated fields, cooling the atmosphere and draining the aquifers to produce crops no one wants. I cannot see that as a natural process, no matter how hard I try.