Cobalt
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Everything posted by Cobalt
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I recall when it hallucinated a threat back in late Jan 2021.. went bonkers for a few runs with the operational and ensemble snowfall totals then completely lost it. That was at like hr 132 though, so this would be something else.
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Easier to bring it due North than due West at this range at the very least
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RGEM honestly not too far off of GFS at hr 84
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AI GFS looks like a slight step back on the coastal. Still further west than AI Euro, and it also has that initial slug of moisture further North to start. As others have noted, that might be a way to salvage a small snowfall if the main event fails to develop.
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NS lobe is definitely further West than 12z through 72, but doesn't look like it's gonna get its act together.
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In recent memory, it feels like the Euro is most fallible past hour 120+, and the GFS is most fallible within that range. Makes perfect sense then that the Euro showed a favorable solution at that range only to trade places with the GFS as we got closer. Anyways.. Euro AI shows a small event on the 5th
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The AI Euro and GFS are remarkably similar at h500 and also precip extent. Comparing them to the 6z Euro indicates that, while an amped solution isn't expected or even likely, the 6z Euro is likely an outlier in how disorganized it is.
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AI GFS is more amped/more west with the trough than 6z, continuing a 4+ run trend Euro at the same time for comparison
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pretty good GEFS trend.
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Translates to a 25-50 mile shift northwest. Not a hit, but a least a step. 0z yesterday was 200 miles + offshore
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AI GFS continuing its trend of shifting the trough West
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It had that northern stream component notably West early on into the run like NAM and Euro, but then yeah the entire look fell apart.
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Quite funny that it has that early March 2010 fail you brought up a bit earlier as the #1 analog. I remember reading that that was a stone's throw from a significant event, but don't know much about it otherwise.
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12z didn't have precip within 50 miles of DC, so a definite step up on the surface side of things.
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Decisive steps in the right direction the past 2 GFS runs.
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Might be weenie folklore but it's only fitting that this window is showing back up as our current system is exiting stage right. GEFS is still offshore but beefed up, a lot of monster lows within range.
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2015 all over again.
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Still at 13 degrees with heavy sleet in Harrisonburg. Nuts.
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Looks like you're getting quite the prolific storm up there. Would love to hear your observations, enjoy it!
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Eyeballing from my window but maybe 2-3 inches? Grass is completely covered, and it already looks like the sleet has tried its best to cover up some of the pathway footprints. 12+ hours of this stuff might match or exceed our snow total.
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Those yellows to the southwest of y’all look like they want to break free from the CC sleet line. Hope you guys get crushed with that stuff. Solid snow back home in NoVa, meanwhile we’re constructing the next glacier here.
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It’s a bizarro world, down to 9 degrees with moderate sleet here.
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IIRC most of the mesos had me flipping 1-2 hours before DC did. Perhaps the sleet line is going to halt after this quick advance but TBD. This does open up a shot at a ridiculous sleet storm, as the HRRR suggests 1.2" QPF is to fall from this point onwards. If a majority of that is sleet.. woof.
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Harrisonburg
