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Cobalt

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Everything posted by Cobalt

  1. Cobalt
    Hey, I think AI generating seemingly legit model outputs is crossing the line, but that's just my opinion. If anyone is wondering how this might be AI, look at the color table off to the right.
  2. Cobalt
    These weather models we have at our disposal are an excellent storyteller. It's almost like they knew they couldn't fully cave one way or another at 18z and had to have us on deck for this 0z suite.
  3. Cobalt
    Dare I say that the 3k NAM looks better than the 12k at hr 60? Of course it cuts off there so it leaves a lot to be imagined.
  4. Cobalt
    I wish I was out here when that event happened. Was the sloppiest 3 inches of snow back home outside of DC. Was my first big track and I stepped outside in it and was like noooope. My dad got me SimCity that day though, that was a good highlight.
  5. Cobalt
    Based on the 12z GFS so grain of salt but CIPS analogs are compelling. A few biggies mixed in with some northeast hits. Also lol at #1
  6. Cobalt
    comical run-to-run difference. We'd have to hope it has a similar shift in store at 0z...
  7. Cobalt
    Pretty nice change on the AI Euro..
  8. Cobalt
    My main fear with that is that he's got the late comedian in mind instead of the meteorologist
  9. Cobalt
    IVT had to make room for that 9 inch precip max lmao
  10. Cobalt
    Precip looks slightly lighter which is odd, but overall precip axis is further west than 12z, and h5 look is better. Seems like 0.7” QPF at DC?
  11. Cobalt
    The paradoxical model, capable of being better than itself
  12. Cobalt
    Honestly, we need some comical fall-off from this model if it won’t verify as-is. A cut down to 14” would feel like a gut punch because we know it would trend worse but have the outside hope that other models could compromise. A drop from 30 inches to a slushy inch in one run would be an all timer.
  13. Cobalt
    Ugh
  14. Cobalt
    It’s definitely marginal, but much closer to the solution we want than 12z.
  15. Cobalt
    It’s honestly pretty close to a substantial solution. 0.5”-1.2” QPF extending from DC southeast with more still to come.
  16. Cobalt
    Rufus looks more amped through 60 hours than 12z
  17. Cobalt
    Can we do this trend in reverse at the same range? Just one time, please? It is quite honestly incredible that the Euro and GFS might both end up showing incredible similar forecas busts one year to the day from each other. Euro shows blizzard at 84 hours = no snow, cave to GFS. GFS shows blizzard at 84 hours = no snow, cave to the Euro. Computer guidance is the great storyteller of our time, setting up heroes, villains, and a lingering sense of impending doom. Gotta love it.
  18. Cobalt
    Dont forget the AI GFS and the Rufus.
  19. Cobalt
    unfortunately..
  20. Cobalt
    Jan 3rd 2022 as mentioned a little while back. That is the gold standard for reverse busts in the modern era, going from dusting Norfolk -> 8-12" DC proper at the 36-42 hour range. Nothing has come close since.
  21. Cobalt
    translates to 0.3" QPF (Pre-IVT) in DC compared to 0" at 12z. I suppose that doesn't mean nothing, but yeah as you said the weak sauce precip translates to a weak sauce column.
  22. Cobalt
    More amped than 0z at the very least? But yeah, closer to a Bermuda Brawler than the GFS solution
  23. Cobalt
    So we've got.. The GFS, the AI GFS, and the Rufus?
  24. Cobalt
    It's been shimmying NW for the past 24 hours. A GFS cave would be completely expected but its AI variant completely whiffing would be less than encouraging for the future of that model.
  25. Cobalt
    The AI GFS nudging a good bit West is, at the very least somewhat encouraging? It and its physics-based counterpart aren't exactly lockstep, and the AI's shift wasnt minute like it tends to be.
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