mattb65

I think we definitely have over 100k, models like the yyg estimate that we are probably at 4-5x the number reported right now. Back in March it was probably 10-12x. Current estimate is 250k-260k new cases per day in the US right now. We are very close to the estimated daily number of cases from the peak in the first wave. Thank God it is in younger people this time and that medical providers and treatments have improved. The other problem aside from processing time is that once you start to see shortages in testing capacity, tests start to be rationed again to the high risk and hospitalized. Also the data becomes much less useful from a public health case identification/isolation/contact tracing perspective. We are fully back to mitigation only method to contain the outbreak in most places seeing fast rising cases.

The one silver lining that I see it's that the rate of rise in cases appears to be slowing down, only 4000 more than last week. It had been increasing by 10k+ every week. Testing volume has been pretty stable over the last week

Yeah, pretty bad, unfortunately it's pretty clear to me that there is a surge in deaths hitting these states, the numbers this week are all bad. I do have hope that these states will flatten out in the coming weeks. It's sad to see this happening, this was all predicted by the health experts. I was worried about it in late April - Georgia reopened and didn't surge because people were being very cautious which created a false sense of security so people decided to cut loose and let their guards down. Surges like this threaten everything - the ability for the economy to recover, the ability for schools to successfully reopen and stay open. How many times do we as a country need to learn the hard lessons that we need to respect the biology of this virus in order to live with it while we wait for an adequate vaccine, treatment or preventive. Dr. Fauci hit the nail on the head today when he highlighted the transmissibility as one of the major factors that sets this virus apart. The severity can be debated, I can see how some will minimize a death rate of 0.6% or wherever it ends up. But no one can deny the incredible ability this virus has to very quickly and dramatically fill up hospitals and ICUs like nothing we have ever seen in our lifetimes.

The big data dump appeared to be yesterday when the numbers were close to 1,000. I didn't think there would be another big data dump to carry over into today. The only big anomaly that I see is the big number out of New Jersey. But I agree, 2 days of significant rises compared with prior weeks is too soon to call it a definite spike, need to see what happens the rest of the week.

The numbers look bad again today. Definitely looks like deaths are spiking in Texas and possibly California. Lots of places appear to be seeing a rise.

Yeah, shutting stuff down and crippling the economy is great policy, all the politicians will be lining up to do it... Great way for them to get reelected.

Not sure how you can say that when looking at the hospitalization curve I just posted from Texas. Their deaths have also starting to rise steeply, same with AZ and FL

Yeah, today's excess is basically the significant decline we saw in Friday due to July 3rd holiday carried forward to today. On Friday there were 247 fewer deaths than the previous Friday.

They may be floating the available beds by cancelling elective procedures but that'll only work for so long with a curve that looks like this. This is Texas. They have been doubling hospitalizations every 12 days since June 11th. If that pace continues they'll be at 16,000 hospitalizations by July 16th. That pace will definitely overwhelm local capacity quickly. Hopefully with the measures put in place last week, that doubling rate will slow significantly so that some of the current hospitalizations can start getting discharged to flatten out the hospitalization curve.

I sure hope so, the local news reported that Hawaiian Airlines is resuming direct flights to Boston in August. Before this whole thing hit I had been planning to do some locums work but obviously that's a no go until things change. Maybe I can convince my family to travel to Australia or New Zealand for some snow chasing next year...

Sorry! I'm honestly torn. I love experiencing all the seasons and really miss the excitement of an incoming snowstorm. I don't think I could live in Hawaii long term, though I could take the occasional trip to big island to chase some snow in the winter.

The banter thread has run its course, time to shut it down.

I appreciated welcoming back a former SNE member and the varied perspectives brought to the table. It's nice to have an open discussion without widespread misinformation or conspiracy theories. Aloha, hope everyone gets through this.

Not sure how it would be enforced. Most liberals seem to be on board with wearing masks already. If the orange guy wanted to see the 'vid get under control and the economy start roaring back then he should go all in on getting his base to join the mask wearing crowd. Not sure how he could pull that sort of 180 but he's done it before.

Care about the economy? Wear a damn mask. https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/coronavirus-mask-mandate-boost-economy-goldman-sachs From arguably the kings of capitalism - Goldman Sachs. The economy depends on keeping the virus at bay - see Texas, Florida, Arizona shutting shit down, delaying school opening, hurting the economy because of the virus. Do the simple stuff that doesn't hurt the economy, please just wear a mask.

If you look around there are some reputable organizations that are looking for aid. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2019/09/03/hurricane-dorian-destroyed-bahamas-heres-how-you-can-help/2194099001/ Bahamas Red Cross, Salvation Army among others - links in the USA Today story above.

Obviously. My favorite so far are the random font changes, capitalizations, hyphenations and other grammatical oddities in the SENC posts. It's like he's a living and breathing email FWD that I would get from my grandfather before he passed away.

I take back what I said before, this is the best thread going on the board right now.

The banter thread has degraded so much in the last 30 minutes that the awful posts that should be here are being posted in the main thread.

Can someone post a link to the chart that shows different model verification at each time point out to 120h that is occasionally posted. Tried to find it on google without any luck. TIA

Just got a TOR over my house next to Wheaton. Looks like broad rotation still.

Sleet line is still charging north, it will need to meet some resistance soon or it might be lights out for almost everyone. 33F rain, doing what we do best, lol

Flipped to pingers in silver spring

Down to 33.1/32.8 and gradually but steadily falling, cold surfaces are whitening up. It'll be cold enough at the surface to accumulate on the non paved surfaces. Problem is the WAA probably flips us over down in the tropics.

NAM3k shows a thin warm layer centered around 800 just NW of DC to Baltimore that will make or break the storm for those riding the boundary. Looks good for the favored spots further to the north and west.