Always in Zugzwang

Well, this is the year of the Rabbit! Also, speaking of Holy Grails...

You'll have to see @yoda for that...

True. It was a big shift for an ensemble in one cycle. I guess it's all perspective...either the ridge is farther east or the downstream trough isn't digging out into the southwest/Pacific forcing the ridge too far west.

Snow just beginning here now, and the radar looks awesome! I expect to be out Jebwalking when it's rippin' out later this evening through tomorrow with blizzard conditions!... ... ... Oh wait. Shit. This is the Jan. 22, 2023 thread, not the Jan. 22-23, 2016 one! Damn, sorry about that folks!

That's a pretty big switch over one run for an ensemble mean (though it's happened before). Clearly the 12Z EPS has backed away from dumping the trough almost completely into the southwest US and the Pacific. (ETA: How did the Euro ops run look, offhand? Just curious. Didn't see anything of that posted in here.)

Just keep Jar-Jar Binks out of it, or any of the prequels/sequels to the original Star Wars trilogy and we should be fine!! Seriously, though. Others have elaborated some on this but I kind of have to like the overall look of things near the end of this month and into the first part of February. Is it another rug pull? Who knows. But there's been some really good cold air advertised nearby and the PV perhaps dipping south more in that time frame. We'll see, I guess.

The absolute WURST!

One thing for certain...those ain't snow rollers on the window!!!

Or being a Cleveland sports fan! LOL!!! I still seethe to an extent over "The Drive", "The Fumble", "The Shot", and two World Series losses in extra innings of Game 7! But hey, I can always savor LeBron and the 2016 NBA championship against the Golden State juggernaut! That was the sports equivalent (for me) of winter 2009-10, it can take the sting out of all the other crap!! (ETA: I still like going back and watching the last 5 or so minutes of Game 7 of that 2016 NBA finals on YouTube...even though I know everything that happened, it still puts me on the edge of my seat watching it again!!)

I'll add to this, and being serious here. It's easy to get a bit down during this "dead time" right after the Holidays and all that. I know I get that way, after all the festivities between essentially Thanksgiving and New Year's. That "down time" can tend to make other things seem worse, or it's easier to get down in general, even about small stuff. Hell, I do that myself around this time of year for various things. Probably a lot of people do. But as @H2O, @mappy, and some others have said...find things that you like, that you enjoy. Take your mind out of all the other BS going on. For me, it's photography. Even in the dead of winter it's possible to find something which catches my eye that's interesting to photograph. Or reading...or hanging out with friends. Those kinds of things can definitely get you out of feeling in a rut, for what it's worth.

Like cleaning the Augean Stables in here sometimes...

They never are!!!

@H2O, bring back the MEMES!!!

It would be like the Hunger Games...winner gets all the snow!

Same here. I tend to lurk more unless there's something really interesting in terms of wintry weather or at least some possibility on the horizon. In general I try to keep a lighter or more humorous attitude in the face of endless fails, but I try not to go overboard on that (maybe sometimes too much banter-ish stuff in the main threads, I admit!). But I do also try to post relevant information in those threads as well. Don't like getting into the pie fights that have gone on.

Green'd!!!

Taking this run verbatim (I know, I know!!!), you can see that a front goes through prior to that wave moving in, with temperatures dropping through that event. So again, taking this as-is, yeah, there would be a good bit of fresh cold air around.

Right, very good point. And well, if we can keep that "look" going forward in time for that same period, there may be something to this.

Soooooo...no comments on the HH GFS around Feb. 1-2??? I know, I know...300+ hours out on an ops run. But it shows how something could work if cold air presses in and a wave cuts underneath. That will be gone I'm sure in the 00Z run, but fun to look at!

We need a "shit the blinds" emoji!

OK, I can't view the Euro weeklies but I'll assume that basically much of February according to them look awful. I honestly don't know what to make...or how much to really put stock into the weeklies. How many times have they looked good but then it's not in the end? So I guess grain of salt? Though I know some mets have been pretty down on February in general, so whatever. At this point with how things have gone I almost don't give a shit (no shits for the blinds, LOL!!!). If much of February is nothing or a blowtorch, I'll hope that maybe it can turn around late-month into March. That's happened before. So this is late February, heading into March. To continue my thoughts (such as they are!) from what I replied to @yoda above...could this be a sign of a very late winter "comeback" of sorts? I've had it in the back of my mind that we could well have crap most of the DJF period (we have so far, why change it?? LOL!!!), but have a very back-loaded winter in a way with a colder period late Feb into mid-March. I know a lot of people in here poo-poo March snows, but I don't mind them! We've had some good ones over the last several years. If we have almost nothing and it's getting later into February, and a good MECS type storm shows up for March, I'd take that! I mean, why not?? And who cares if it's March and it would disappear a lot quicker than if we got it now?

To be fair, there wasn't much life to support for the next week anyhow!