Scarlet Pimpernel

I was actually just thinking the same thing about the Sun-Mon wave. Is the fact that it's somewhat weaker and farther south actually allow the Tuesday wave to grow more, gain more moisture, etc.? While also being colder overall. It seems as if the better solutions lately have focused more on the 11th-12th wave, oscillating on how strong it is, how far north/south, where the snow/ice line is.

I really don't think anyone thinks this is in the bag just yet (at least not anyone with some level of common sense!). But one has to like the remarkable ensemble signals as well as what's now showing up on the deterministic runs. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate the caution here...I'm always overly cautious myself until we actually have a "go" time, but this is not looking like some far-fetched potential here. I'd like to think we're in a good position.

We're on the high end here...the "we're due" index is pretty high!!!

To paraphrase Mr. Darcy in "Pride and Prejudice"...it is tolerable, I suppose!

9 years ago this winter since the 2016 storm.

There was a time when the 2016 blizzard just locked in and we all knew it. I am absolutely NOT saying this is a comparable event or will be the same, or even that these amounts the Euro and GFS are showing will definitely verify. But the Saturday before the 2016 event, a week prior, every single model and ensemble was pounding that Jan. 22-23 time frame as a major winter event. It was just a matter of working out the details. I still vividly remember looking at the discussion in here after the 12Z models on Jan. 16 (that Saturday) and it's like everyone KNEW. Again, not saying this is the same exact thing by any means (or that it's "guaranteed"), but what the ensembles and the deterministic have been showing for the past couple of days is very reminiscent to me. That was a classic setup of course with the blocking, plus an El Nino, etc. So not the same. But you get the idea.

The ensembles have been hammering this for the past several days, though initially it was not clear exactly what time period might produce this (various waves next week giving high ensemble mean amounts in total). It now appears to be honing in on the 11th-12th as the main event.

You should have enough room for a tub of Helluvagood dip!

This might be JAWS worthy...

The SFBI (Scraff Fridge Beer Index) is extremely high during that period! Like +25 standard deviations! No room for any brie cheese or yogurts, the shelves will be bulging with high-quality beers!

Yeah, just realized...got confused on which wave people were talking about going farther south and out to sea. There is something on that Monday the 10th initially it appears.

GFS keying on a different shortwave? ETA: Nevermind, just looked a bit more closely and I realized people were looking at the wave on Monday perhaps? Not the one for around Feb. 12.

Celebrity deathmatch...@stormtracker vs. @H2O!!!

It was like a whispered bat signal, or a silent letter in a word...very subtle!

Yeah, that northern GL low kinda helps with messing the thermals up, it appears.

Right, exactly! It gets very aggravating to read stuff in there at times (many times?). You've got people (usual suspects!) dissing any chances next week already if the models don't show a foot of snow every cycle, and flat out damn near canceling or getting freaked out whether or not the supposed better pattern change later in the month will happen. Jesus! That said, it's still one of the best places for good information and discussion, if one really just pays attention to the knowledgeable posters and good comments, while scrolling through the chaff. But yeah, it gets really freaking old having to do that.

Well, to paraphrase the old saying: There are old weenies, and there are bold weenies. But there are no old, bold weenies!!

I know people typically frown a bit at the "total positive snow depth change" maps, but just for fun to show how significant this might be, here's the total positive snow depth through 342 hours (00Z Feb. 18). This seems like an insanely high amount for that value:

That's a DAFUQ we really want to have!

Nope. I only have plans to be out with my camera and yardstick taking many photos of us rippin' fatties while I measure several inches or more of snow! I'm hoping for 3" per hour, shut the freakin' city down type of snow, with perhaps a period of ice in there to add a layer of glaze. You know, where it's possible to walk down the middle of Connecticut or Wisconsin avenue in the middle of the day with boot-high snow, because there is absolutely NO traffic!! In other words, it would be nice to have it look like this (from Feb. 10, 2010):

Thanks to you both. Yeah, it's waaaay out there of course. But the key takeaway for me is that we have several waves coming at us within that one week or so period, and there are several indications that we could score a good bit of snow even if one of them is too warm with mainly rain. And from what I saw, the temps don't exactly torch completely and subsequently cool off again.

Do tell...don't tease!! LOL! Is this something after the rainer event on the 14th (which is just after the snow we get on the 12th)? Sorry...running a bit slow and haven't seen past the 13-14th yet.