Scarlet Pimpernel

I bet it would have been amusing to see a bunch of drunken people stumbling out of the bars, looking at you all...and wondering how they stepped out into the wrong century!

Right you are! Hence, "Hessian" troops!

I think you mean the time that Gen. Washington surprised the Hessian troops at Pearl Harbor and prevented them from bombing it!

I get that. But one needs to step back and not assume that just because some indices or the Nino phase look unfavorable for awhile starting next year, that it means NOTHING in any particular winter season and everything is shit the blinds awful. I'm not going to sit here and expect it will be great by any means. But let's worry about next winter...or the next 8!...as they come. Sure, we may have a sucky or more hostile look next year, but what if we get a lucky time or two where we get a decent or better snow event? It could happen. Nothing precludes that. That's how I'm looking at it for now. Snow angels? Now that's something I haven't done for years!!! LOL!!!

Why is the Reaper messing with the Golden Gate Bridge??? Is this what he does in his retirement???

It's not really that people "don't understand that" (in relation to the awful 7 year stretch of snow, or lack thereof!). It's that probably a lot of people don't need to keep hearing that if we don't score big with some large amount of snow in DC/Balt in a Nino year that we "should" do so, then we're doomed and will suck even more...even if we have a GOOD winter this year in the end. I posted something along these lines in the medium range thread a short while ago. I get the overall long term implications, or potential implications. But we don't need to hear it pounded at us over and over and over again, or how this pattern looks great but here's how we can really fail despite that, etc. Let's just at least for the most part focus on this winter for what it is and how it goes. OK, so if we don't "win" in a huge 63-3 UGA/FSU type Orange Bowl blowout, but if we win like a 34-13 Michigan CFP championship, are we a failure? Seriously, I'll worry about next winter when it gets closer, same with the winters after that. Yes, I get that it's been God-awful for years and I get that this makes any snow lover nervous about any future prospects. But it can also sap any fun or enjoyment if we get some good storms this year if we're going to constantly worry that "it's not enough to offset the past 7!!!"' ETA: I got literally 0.5" snow in the pre-dawn hours on Feb. 1 last year that was gone by 10AM. We had a ridiculously warm Jan-Feb last year with almost literally zero tracking that was worthwhile all winter. The only other snow I saw outside that half inch was some snow TV for a couple of hours near the end of Feb. that didn't stick. This year I've seen 9.5" thus far along with a rather nice cold week and snow cover for a week. Last year, the only cold was like 2 days around Christmas and zero snow cover for more than 2 hours. Yeah I know, beating last year is a low bar. But let's try to take this winter for what we can get instead of trying to pigeon-hole it into something that it SHOULD be or it's a failure even if it's not.

Well, if you want to go all "Highlander", there can be only one!

But I've seen the Sistine Chapel on the head of a pin!!!

A-freakin'-men!! You said this a lot more diplomatically than I could! This place sometimes, I swear! Agree. I'm very encouraged and excited about what the overall pattern has looked like on the ensembles and longer range extended ensembles. And it's shown up for some time now, apparently not being kicked farther out in time. At this point, all you can do is look at the overall flow and assess that, really. Yeah, in the end as we get into that time frame, all that matters is what happens with the sensible weather. It may end up being epic or really good, or we could get bad luck and get screwed...I'm not going to let that worry me at this point. We can evaluate that as it arrives, and I don't really think we'll end up with an anemic remainder of this winter. While I get some concern or confusion over why a snow map would appear to be incongruous with the advertised 500-mb flow, I'm not sure if we should really much care what a snow map 2+ weeks out shows. How many times have we looked at long range ensembles snow maps or Euro weekly snows that pounded us with a ton of snow over a 3 week period, yet it never came about? Of course at the time most people laughed off those clown maps, so why should we now take the "opposite" with any less of a grain of salt? On a side-note, while the discussion of climo and the implications of how well (or not well) we do this winter plays into that is interesting and worthwhile, I really wish we could mostly focus on the here and now. Just deal with this winter for this winter's sake, rather than thinking "if we don't get 30-40 inches in DC at a time we should do really well with a Nino...then we're doomed for X number of subsequent years and our climo will suck even worse donkey balls because we're headed into a Nina starting next year!!!" Can we just get through this season first and try to enjoy what we get? So if we by chance get a decent HECS storm or a couple of really good MECS-level events, etc., but don't get a "blowout win" (even if we get a "win" all the same) on the total snowfall in the end, are we going to pull our hair out that we failed and are doomed? I sure hope not.

LOL at the GFS, out at the end of its run! @Ji already mentioned above that it's actually trying to set up a MECS at that time, whatever it's worth. Could that be the @psuhoffman "getting snow in an imperfect setup" scenario? The 500-mb pattern is a mess, lots of moving parts (yeah, I know, and ops at range, but...). I guess if things are actually trending better toward the 2nd week of February, this would perhaps indicate a lead into that transition?

Yeah, Ravens look quite formidable for sure. While the 49ers might be their toughest competition (assuming both end up in the SB), at this point I don't see how SF overcomes that. I mean, the Ravens did beat them soundly on the road. I'm sure SF would adjust but I don't see much of anyone beating Baltimore if they keep playing at that level. And I actually wouldn't totally rule out the Lions pulling an upset win next week for the NFC championship.

Definitely very wintry out today! Got this photo of a cardinal in the snow, they are such stunning birds especially with the red against the white of the snow!

I really look forward to celebrating another GUYS FOLKS day again this winter!!

Dafuq?!?!?!?!

That's fine...you were looking at a bit larger picture than what my comment was referring to. I was stating that it looked like crap and would be in any situation or time. I realize now that you were pointing to the fact that it looks remarkably warm damn near across the entire CONUS. Which gets to the "elephant in the room" discussion that I won't delve into here, but don't get me wrong, I am absolutely NOT a climate change denier, and I am not disputing your (or anyone else's) assessment on that.

Ahhh, so THAT'S why the pattern change is holding off!!! Models and ensembles actually have your calendar programmed in now???

I know, I know...but it's just not funny especially coming from someone who is well respected and knowledgeable (and I very much respect PSU's input and knowledge, don't get me wrong!). We get enough "regular" non-trolling whining and complaining in here as it is, why add to it?

I know @psuhoffman is kind of being a bit humorous and tongue-in-cheek with the "perfect track rainstorm" look. But really, the pattern and flow at that time is horrible. It's not like it's a marginal or halfway decent look yet we're still getting screwed, where previous years we'd have fared better. We wouldn't far well in ANY year with that pattern, I believe.

Yup, that's where I'm at now (and was at the time)! What was so striking about that first week of March 2015 is the fact that we actually got ice in the middle of the day, in March, and then that neat snow event a few days later. Likewise, 2014 was just incredible with the amount of snow we got in March!

I think both you and @Bob Chill are correct. In March 2014 we had 3 notable events...one early in the month (5.3" where I am), one on St. Patrick's Day (8"), and one on March 25 (3"). We even got a quick inch of snow on (I believe) the 30th after cold rain most of that day. That was a crazy, snowy March in a remarkable wall-to-wall winter. In 2015, I recall some light snow and decent icing around March 1-2, and more ice around the 3rd. Then we got a nice 6.5" snow on March 5. February that year featured extremely cold temperatures and a couple of solid events.

A houseful of meteorologists, all geeking out on the upcoming snow??? Oh my! I think that's illegal in like 32 states or something! Seriously though, glad you enjoyed a good week off, especially with such a wintry and cold week! Awesome!

Funny, but I miss the days when there were like 2-3 threats at once. People would jump into the "short" range one for the upcoming event, and as soon as that model discussion was done, everyone jumped into the medium range to check out the NEXT one!!!

Drunk...watching the HRRR...oh my!

Well, let's not go overboard here! But your overall point is valid, we could well over-perform on this one, hopefully. Certainly think a general 2-4" (DC metro area) is well on the table, which is a lot better than we were looking at the other day.

Yeah I was kind of looking at that, even if it's an ops deterministic at that range. Those are some serious HP systems, and even if they tend to get "kicked out" (with a +NAO), the implication seems to be there's still some cold air around and not far away. All the freaking out over next week's warmup seems a bit odd to me...for the past week, it's been WELL KNOWN (or so I thought!) that after this weekend, we'd be looking at a relax or warmup pattern for 7-10 days or there about. This is no surprise. Will it be a "torch"? I don't know, but even if it is relatively speaking, wouldn't it be good at least if the cold air source region in Canada remains cold (i.e., if Canada doesn't get flooded with Pac puke)? As you said above, this isn't the same kind of thing that we had coming out of December. I hold out reasonable hope and optimism that we have a favorable pattern sometime by the first part of February, and hopefully a return to some good -NAO blocking. In any event, the indications are for a pretty good +PNA ridge to form sometime toward the end of this month or so. I seriously don't think we get screwed for all of February into the first half of March (at least not yet, LOL!!).