Scarlet Pimpernel

...Or a Trojan Rabbit!

Yeah had to look twice and then realized that. Every member in the overall total is easily >2" area-wide, even more than that. But that 24-h total for the 2nd storm didn't quite match up.

How's this compare to the previous couple of GEFS cycles? Don't think I saw those posted from last night and this morning. Just curious...

Yup...you can get crazy snow gradients from those events. You can go from mostly clear and wet roads to a blizzard in almost no time. I recall seeing cars come in from the "main" snowbelt of NE Ohio with a several inch or so slab of snow on the roof when all the vehicles around them were dry (I think they left it there to "show off!" LOL!!!).

Having grown up in northeast Ohio, I completely agree with you! There is really nothing else like a major lake effect event when they hammer you. I've experienced those 2-4" bands (or more!) and whiteout conditions, as well as thunder-snow. Northeast Ohio doesn't get as much as Buffalo, simply because Buffalo gets a much longer fetch off Lake Erie (so they'll be in those bands more or less for hours, even days!), but still. We'd occasionally get some added bands off Lake Huron if the wind direction was right. It's really cool!!! Also, lake effect nearly always provided "extra" snow on top of synoptic events at the end, and would give you snow even after rain once it got cold and the winds shifted behind a front.

That scenario shown by the GFS would pretty much make everyone from here to New England pretty darned happy.

Yes, for sure. Previous cycles had that trough as just a broad kind of nothing much. This is, I believe, what @psuhoffman said some pages back what we'd need (at least here in the mid-Atlantic), that trough to really dig down there since there's not much of a southern stream per se. (ETA: And, am I mistaken in seeing that a piece of the PV phases somewhat with it?? Or at least starts to.)

That digging trough around OK/TX/Arklatex region is very notably sharper than 00Z and 06Z.

Those handful of posters you mentioned are good and worth paying attention to for sure. Unfortunately, you also have to sift through all the chaff (i.e., bullshit!) from those who inundate threads with complaining comments! But don't let that deter you! There is a lot of good information in here despite that.

Well, I'm not one of those who will sh*t all over a thread because I'm pissed the models suck for snow! Don't get me wrong, I surely get disappointed when things don't work, but I don't post it all over the damned place. But honestly, I know what you mean and I know exactly those who you are referring to that do precisely that. And it's driven off some of the better posters on here, unfortunately. It pisses me off as well (I really should use the ignore feature, yeah, I know!). It's beyond annoying to read page after page and post after post of verbal diarrhea complaining about stuff. One or two saying "well, this doesn't look good" is fine, but it turns into a bitch-fest among a handful of posters.

Definitely a level of cray-cray here (as you've discovered!). It's just what we do, hahaha! But despite some posters who can be aggravating or all the tearing of hair, gnashing of teeth with every snow fail, this is a fun place to be honest! There are some good and highly knowledgeable folks here, and some cool people (including @mappy!!)...I think there are many who have a good sense of humor even in the face of failures. (ETA: Sometimes, I seriously have to ask myself why the f**k I care about frozen water falling from the sky and get disappointed when it doesn't happen, LOL!!! )

Sadly, it's not much less dead around here given recent trends for any snow in these parts!!! But welcome!

"I give you the NAM, weenies of the mid-Atlantic Shire. May it give you snow when all other guidance abandons you!"

Gotta laugh at something. I'd rather have it getting FOLKS-y instead!!

Haha, I figured it had to be something like that, but still...in my mind I was thinking, well, you know! Hell, gotta find humor in anything at this point!

Gotta admit I chuckled a bit at "FuXi" model!!!

Great film version of that story! ("They seek him here, they seek him there, those Frenchies seek him everywhere! Is he in Heaven? Or is he in Hell? That damn'ed elusive Pimpernel!" )

Hahaha! Sorry about that! But now you know a good movie to catch sometime!

If you're referring to my screen name, it's from the novel and movie "The Scarlet Pimpernel"...and the image is of the actor Leslie Howard who played that role in the 1934 movie (an absolute classic!!! He was also Ashley Wilkes in "Gone with the Wind").

Agree. It's childish and juvenile, to be honest. I mean, sometimes I see some good input on his part but when things go awry even slightly, it's comment after comment of complaints...like "whaaaa! Mommy, it's not going to snow!!." I get that it's probably his "schtick" or whatever, but it's old. I should just learn to use the ignore button, I know! But like I said, the occasional good input keeps me from pulling that trigger and I generally just don't respond to his posts that are like that anyhow, LOL!!!

????

Thing I like about this is how the cold air (in the GFS) is still pretty well locked despite the low tucking in a bit more. Just looking at the 2-m temps, for instance, it's in the mid-20s to near 30ish throughout Tuesday before they crash that evening. Mid-levels do get dicey-er during Tuesday for a time, but no point parsing such details at this point.

Question, for those who have delved deeper into this than I have. There's been discussion that the models won't have the best handle on this system until the GL cutter moves out (approx. Saturday). How have the Euro and GFS handled the location, strength, etc. of that cutter relative to each other? Obviously that's not the only piece here but it is a big player in the overall setup.

18Z GFS looks almost like a cross between the Euro and CMC (Euro almost nothing or too far out, CMC too close and warm)...I'm speaking in terms of the outcome, sort of.