BooneWX

Should be enough for a disaster anyways with strong winds

IMO trust the wet guidance on this. Look at the angle of the flow and 700 mb temp advection. We don’t have a dry off ramp. We’re lifting incredibly warm moist air into an anomalous low level dome. No one has talked about this either but in NC, that flow is going to have 3 origin points: leftover Pacific moisture, fresh tap from the gulf and increasing Atlantic flow. Also of note, no guidance had moisture making it to the ground in western NC this morning, so they can’t even nail hyper close range.

Said the same thing when I looked at radar just now and saw precip on my doorstep. 8 hrs ahead of schedule.

As expected, the storm is ahead of schedule.

Interesting ob: The 0z HRRR has trended very strong with the CAD. The same 0z run is too warm compared to surface temps in real-time over the plains…. WOOF

How dark?

Depression sinking in fellas. Coping with a complete miss and we’re rewarded with a complete mess. Godspeed tomorrow - Monday. I say Monday because the 30-40 mph wind gusts should go over swell with ice in the trees.

@buckeyefan1 can we get this pinned please and thank you?

Hear ye hear ye

Not surprised it’s dead. Our fate is pretty baked in at this point. It’s mostly nowcasting and needing to move to an obs thread. As Joe Bastardi would say, enjoy the weather, it’s the only weather you’ve got.

NAM is correcting south lol. These models!

The hrrr looks wetter on its surface depiction but haven’t finished the run to confirm.

Wagons south? .

*chuckles* I’m in danger meme

I believe there’s an issue with the NAM. Someone pointed this out on the other board, but if you look at soundings, it’s showing freezing rain but not depicting that on surface maps.

I’m not sure about its thermals but the fact that it’s the eventual replacement for the NAM tells me which one I’ll be weighing

NAM has a dry bias. FV3 has a more reasonable surface depiction.

I’m trying to tread carefully here but I think GSP not coming to some agreement this morning and getting warnings hoisted is a blunder. Can’t get too ornery about exactly being 24hrs out or if it should be an ice storm or winter storm warning. It’s all in the wash. The general public doesn’t drill down that hard - missed opportunities to send out warnings while you had their attention waking up.

When I requested the foothills get buried the past year, I was requesting snow, not this.

GSP up on totals for everything this morning. Chat, are we cooked??

My gut says no lulls for us. Models and even real time radar will not pick up the low level moisture getting squeezed out. These “dry” slots aren’t dry and they’re nightmare fuel for the foothills. We’re going to have the most efficient type of ice accretion method pumping in those lulls — freezing drizzle.

HRRR with painfully low dews. Like -10 in the piedmont of Nc.

Because weather apps are based on nothing we in this group value: precedence, analogs, multiple data points and human input. It’s why I hate that any of these apps bother. All it does is mislead the public.

I agree. It’s madness as well having this much access to data. I yearn for the lost days where you had to wait 12 hrs to see a limited amount of models. Information overload. 2 hrs ago everyone was breathing deeper with cams showing more sleet. One mild shift in the gfs an hour later and we can toss the 36 hrs of freezing rain in the 20s it showed. You’re all nuts, but it’s what keeps me coming back.