BooneWX

I definitely agree there. We’re in some serious uncharted territory rn. We joke about the models being garbage but this is the first year I’ve seen even ensembles be largely clueless into the mid range.

I tend to agree and suppression would be equally bad if we swing for too much cold. My only concern with Canada being the only source region is how much cold air do we scour out through the 10th and is there any room for a resupply? It’s going to be like walking on a tightrope looking at the ensembles because Canada modifies quite a bit.

Oh boy. Now we’re starting to see Bam have cold feet.

Shouldn’t have to go far. At some point the cold air will come with a clipper and going up 221 will be a short trek for you.

You’re a great poster TW! Chime in more. But you’re right. The ole rug pull is common around here. I’ve been most at peace with it this year than ever before. It is what it is. It hurts to see it happen but what can we do?

A lot of this comes down to the NAO. We’ve lost that stout blocking signature significantly. The early month period of cold was only going to be possible if the -NAO bullied the rest of the patten into submission. Mid-month onward, this is the first time (and I hate to say it), that I’m really starting to see some red flags on the cold forecast. On modeling it’s essentially the traditional ensembles vs AI. The AI ensembles are much more aggressive in favor of a cold pattern getting established by mid month so we’ll get a very good verification check in a week or two. Onto my red flags: what exactly is moving this pattern? PNA looks neutral-ish, we’re losing the -NAO. -EPOs are great, that should dump some cold into the conus but without a solid western ridge in place, my bet would be that it dumps into the Rockies and bleeds east slowly. That would be a modified mess, even if it makes it here. - MJO - stuck in the cod. This coupled with our meh teleconnections are combining for model volatility. We’re at a fork in the road and something has to give. - ENSO still favors a SER and we need help elsewhere to beat that down.

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The rollercoaster ride that keeps on giving

It’s not all bad imo. A surging ridge into Alaska and a trough east of Hawaii is an ideal look at this range. I’m wondering if we’re seeing some feedback issues… a lot of moving parts… windshield wiper effect. You’ve got a stout -NAO developing, a lot of active shortwaves embedded in the flow and a complete Pacific reshuffle commencing. I’m hard pressed to believe we’re even close to a final solution.

Cold dumps west and pumps a ridge that bridges with our -NAO. Not ideal.

The models giveth the models taketh

No one should be giving up. These are the same trash models that said it would be 75 today.

Bam has a good pull you away from the cliff update on YouTube this morning

23 here. Quite the whiplash from Saturday.

Poking around the resort cams this morning, I’m currently watching snow fall at Buckeye Lake near Beech Mtn. Thing is - these dendrites are super large. Like I truly don’t know if I’ve ever seen flakes that large with a temp of 11°. Anyone else seeing it at their location?

Fab Feb your table is ready

It could be right but we had one bad suite. For now it’s a blip not a trend.

Sheesh. That was the worst overnight suite in a long time. Let’s see what 12z brings. Idk if I’ve ever seen the run to run changes we have lately.

I’m at the point where I think there will be a major east coast storm between the 7th and 10th. It remains to be seen on who misses out. I think the mid-Atlantic north will be particularly favored this first time but idk. We could get a stout HP and get hammered as well. The -NAO just continues to impress on the models. Odds of getting that damming high are up from normal.

One uptrend I’ve seen today is that the ensembles have thrown some haymakers in individual runs. Plenty of duds but some insane runs mixed in as well. Goes to show just how high ceiling *could* be. The southern jet cranking really opens the door for some bombs.

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I definitely think we’ll have to endure a brief mild period while that +PNA builds. Gotta hope in the immediate long range that our -NAO bullies the pattern a bit. I think it could but the Ohio Valley to the Northeast are certainly favored at the moment.

Euro is very close to burying the upper south east on 12z at 1/8…. Light event verbatim on the op but boy was it close to crushing everyone.

It’s the GEFS that I trash, yes, but interesting to see the ensemble members spitting out some absolute bangers in that 1/9 range. Euro AI with a nice I-85 storm in that range as well.

We’re building towards cross polar flow on almost the entire 12z suite