BooneWX
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Everything posted by BooneWX
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Yikes
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17z hrrr did some digging, hopefully 18z follows suit
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@Hvwardcan you give us some hopium for a lee side trough?
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I think this pattern is going to eventually bare an amplified EC storm. Go read Cranky’s post on Twitter that I shared in the main thread yesterday. It may be at the tail end of the pattern but I do think it’s coming.
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My gut says someone in the northern mountains is going to get absolutely thumped. Like prediction of 2” with a verification of 7 or 8” thumped.
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Not gonna lie, it’s paltry, but .8” a few weeks before Christmas on a random Monday would still put me in a good mood.
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Unimpressive here. Got down to 31.6, so it wasn’t likely enough to matter.
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I complain about my area quite a bit but idk if anyone has been in the screw zone across the entirety of the southeast moreso than Charlotte. Truly feel bad for snow lovers in that area. Extra salt in the wound that Raleigh is about to score again.
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https://x.com/contentwxguy/status/1997357683729375599?s=46 a good read on the long range from one of the best at reading it
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All of this is really good considering the NAM can also be biased towards the low end of QPF in the long range.
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Looking at the 12k, I think we can toss the surface depiction. Play the loop quickly. Something is wrong - likely some sort of feedback issue. I thought it was picking up on some convective nuances with the splotchiness but it actually just looks like it spazzes out and glitches.
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Much more expansive on 3k geez. Just a hair, and I mean jusssst a hair more digging and we have a Murphy to Manteo 2-4” event.
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Surface depiction for the NAM is very similar to 18z, but again, it’s another model that looks improved under the hood. The ridge out west keeps trending taller, helping the shortwave drop a bit further before it scoots east.
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NAM… sharper, further south and west
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Fog creeping in heavily at my place - 35°
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Not a great surface depiction but it was undeniably better under the hood
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I’ll be first to admit that I wrote this one off early, but a couple more tweaks and it’s a legitimately big deal for a large part of this forum.
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HRRR keeps the trend going at 0z for the shortwave to dig further west.
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All of our chips are on the table for a lee side trough. Without it, nothing, with it……
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That’d be the most excitement we’ve had in 3 years
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Actually seems like a pretty reasonable output. The footprint makes sense to me.
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Clearing skies and wet grass, that frost is going to be serious. I’ll be close to passing my seasonal totals of late with just a few more chilly mornings.
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Upslope only happens for us during hurricanes, you know the rules
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Suppression (depression) city
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GEFS moved the trough west at 12z, right where we’d need it. Gotta get the euro ensembles on board though.
