Jump to content

BlunderStorm

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,122

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by BlunderStorm

  1. BlunderStorm
    I'm amused at my own folley at this point. The temperature is 31 and I'm trapped with my most hated precip type for the storm I had been looking forward to for 11 days. In other news the precipitation is picking up. Ice, Ice, Baby! Why am I laughing?
  2. BlunderStorm
    Yeah, that's pretty much it. This will be something I'll take account for in future events. Considering temperatures don't look to get significantly colder tonight this isn't going to stop anytime soon. I guess I could hope for some heavy rates to overcome but at the same time that's a double edged sword as it introduces more freezing rain to the ground and makes the situation worse. I'm expecting a pretty hefty glaze now. My only hope is for colder air in the upper levels to be forcibly advected into the valley which at this point is laughable. (refer to John's post above)
  3. BlunderStorm
    I don't understand what is causing the warm pocket over me. I feel like I'm in the worst location for miles around. Every short range models shows me under freezing rain all night. I checked the hourly forecast for Honaker and then I checked the forecast for Lebanon just a hop and skip down the road (It shouldn't look that different). Here is Honaker's hourly forecast: https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/24260:4:US Here is Lebanon's forecast: https://weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/USVA0426:1:US The thing is things are looking a heck of a lot more like Lebanon right now. It doesn't seem to be related to a warmnose in the upper levels of the atmosphere but rather it seems to be a local phenomena caused by local factors that still affect the upper levels. If the radar is right everywhere else in the region is getting hammered. I thought I could dismiss this look on the High-res models but noooo.... I just can't seem to win. It's one thing to be stuck in the situation deep in the valley with expectation of this. It's another thing to be surrounded by heavy snow on an upper level heat island "screw over zone" in a generally positive climate relatively speaking. I wish I had or at least knew how to access products that would show the current temperatures at the upper levels. I'm taking a direct slap to the face. I hope, I HOPE I'm wrong with this but it's looking likely this is how things go. As for assigning a term for this as I believe I mentioned earlier is this the downslope? Good luck everyone else I'll enjoy my long stay in ZR hell. I haven't been this frustrated with the weather in a long time.
  4. BlunderStorm
    The temp has dropped another degree to 34. It's got to the point where seeing it drop a degree feels like a small victory. As for precip type I'd say it's roughly 2/3rds graupel 1/3rd snow. EDIT: Make that 33 woo! It's finally back to where I started temperature wise good grief.
  5. BlunderStorm
    The temperature has dipped back to 35 and the dew point is jumping up to meet it. Heavy graupel is now being mixed with snow. It's getting there.
  6. BlunderStorm
    Glad to know I'm not the only guy with issues.
  7. BlunderStorm
    The column has moistened enough for a steady light mix. I think I'm seeing every precip type under the sun all at once.
  8. BlunderStorm
    The lightest graupel has begun to fall finally. I trust the radar but golly is there some dry air underneath the level where it is scanning. This has not got off to a stellar start. It's going to be a fight. The temperature for whatever reason has now climbed to 36.
  9. BlunderStorm
    Downslope off of Clinch Mountain maybe? It's not like I'm right next to it though. It took me forever to figure out what the Nam 3km, and HRRR were doing and now it all makes sense. Downslope. If you check the latest HRRR and look into SWVA you should be able to see it clear as day. Well that theory doesn't make sense on the ground at least. winds are coming from the NE at 4mph therefore it would not be as a result of downslope from Clinch mountain. Then again the wind direction could be drastically different further up in the atmosphere thus likely being the result of downslope. Then again if it were downslope I would see a rise in temperatures here which I am but the winds at the surface are not in that direction. I don't know I guess the clouds don't like me. lol.
  10. BlunderStorm
    2 hours of virga...why? It should be reaching the ground at this point. Is the atmosphere really that dry? Also the temperature has spiked up to 35 from 32 about 40 minutes ago ugh. Patience is a virtue...Patience is a virtue...Patience is a virtue.
  11. BlunderStorm
    It's all so close and yet it's a ghost town up here still. An occasional snowflake passes by every minute or two. I'm expecting it to really ramp up out of nowhere. I sure hope this is my last nada report haha!
  12. BlunderStorm
    If that's the case it must be knocking on my doorstep and wow sleet at 39... almost unheard of.
  13. BlunderStorm
    And... it begins. The first ice crystal has made contact with the ground. I'm watching this one out on the porch of my house in a heavy coat and enjoying the cold.
  14. BlunderStorm
    A great way to cap off the model viewing!
  15. BlunderStorm
    Radar is back to covering me but it's still virga. The relative humidity is at 68%. If anything starts falling now though it looks like it'll be snow with the temperature at 33F. Snow trucks are buzzing by like hornets around a nest.
  16. BlunderStorm
    How are things looking temperature wise above the surface right now guys? EDIT: Oh so I see we're switched 100% to obs got it!
  17. BlunderStorm
    Radar skipped the path up the valley to snow here. Still nothing falling and it is currently 34 degrees with the DP at 25.
  18. BlunderStorm
    Currently 36 with a soft breeze straight from the good old West Virginia Alleghenies to the northeast. The skies are solid overcast and as my mawmaw would say are "snowclouds". My high today was a balmy 37 and it's looking like it's only going down from here. I have my porcelain tile ready laid flat on the ground with a bit of dirt added underneath it to make the surface even on the slope of my yard, so measurements should be really accurate. It's all systems go as we got the shovels out and have the cars parked at the bottom of our driveway...We even got the bread and milk. BRING IT ON!
  19. BlunderStorm
    TWC has been extremely dismissive east of the Blue Ridge. I'm not sure what model they were using this morning but they only gave Johnson City 0.5 inches of snow for the entirety of the event. Which at this point I think is laughable. So you may be in for more than you think but I can't say for sure everywhere varies.
  20. BlunderStorm
    I can't help it... It's just been so long since I've seen a snowfall over 6 inches. The past two winters I have nickled and dimed my way to average-ish seasonal totals. Something is bound to go wrong and I just can't pin it down! Haha.
  21. BlunderStorm
    My original thinking was 4-7 in when the NW trend began. Then I bumped my expectations to 5-8 last night. Now with some doubts i'm going with 6-10 in.
  22. BlunderStorm
    It certainly isn't pulling any punches leading up to the event.
  23. BlunderStorm
    In my opinion they should have called a winter storm warning hours ago for Mercer and Mcdowell. I'm feeling pretty confident the precipitation shield reaches there.
  24. BlunderStorm
    Tough question I've been mostly out for the morning and haven't really looked hard at the models. I'm feeling pretty confident they will put an advisory in Knox county. I'm not really sure they will implace a WSW North and East of there but I'm willing to bet they begrudgingly will. I would see the WSW brought down to Grainger, Union, Jefferson, and Sevier as the line.
  25. BlunderStorm
    Don't worry it did on my end.
×
×
  • Create New...